Expectations for KOSPI to Break 7,000, Attention on Semiconductors and Nuclear Power

Major stocks such as tech, SpaceX, and Tesla all rose together, marking the first time in months that all stocks posted gains. Semiconductor stocks in particular surged 5–6%, spreading a positive atmosphere across the market.

After the S&P 500 broke out of its box range, it temporarily declined but rebounded after confirming support. This technical flow is interpreted as securing strong upward momentum toward a new high.

If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises rates by 50bp, it is highly likely to act as a strong negative factor for the market. On the other hand, if the BOJ freezes rates or limits itself to a small rate hike, there is concern that funds could move to the United States. The market currently expects a 25bp rate hike with near 100% probability, so a decision at that level could be perceived as a process of resolving uncertainty.

If the rate hike issue eases, it is highly likely to lead a rebound in the domestic stock market and push KOSPI beyond 7,000 points to attempt a rise toward 7,500 points.

The aftereffects of hawkish rate hike policy are likely to be reflected in the market later. For now, since one major uncertainty—the rate hike—is being resolved, the market is likely to move with a sense of relief within a certain range. Both KOSPI and KOSDAQ are maintaining an overall upward trend.

Amazon's contract to supply generators for data centers and the US House's passage of a data center power self-sufficiency bill brought the power demand issue to the fore. Accordingly, the possibility of simultaneously building data centers and small modular reactor (SMR) power plants is increasing, and the nuclear power sector is expected to rise.

This is a case that dispels concerns about slowing GPU demand for data centers and proves strong market demand. It shows that big tech's AI investment demand remains solid.

This is interpreted as a move by the central bank to secure flexible response capacity in a tightening environment, and is analyzed as a substantive cause of falling global government bond yields, including in the US.

This suggests that the Fed is supplying liquidity for market stability even amid a tightening stance.

This shows that the market held up well even though a 10% decline was possible under the macro environment. Positive assessments of the market's responsiveness continued.

The KOSPI index is currently at 6,715 points, leaving about 4.2% to reach 7,000 points. If it breaks through and settles above 7,000 points, the market is expected to gain strong elasticity and additional upward momentum. The index is currently fluctuating near the 11-day moving average (6,840) and the 21-day moving average (6,792).

However, if an unexpected variable occurs, it may be reflected in the aftermarket, so caution is needed.

Even if prices rise in the aftermarket, the collateral ratio is not automatically satisfied, so caution is needed. Also, real-time closing prices are sometimes not displayed accurately in securities apps, requiring investors to check carefully.

AI is highly likely to be discussed as a major agenda item at the US-China summit. The two sides will discuss preventing the separation of AI systems, and the semiconductor trade dispute is expected to shift to a stable management mode. Former President Trump is strengthening the US AI strategy by summoning CEOs to the White House for preemptive action.

The KOSPI index is analyzed to have bottomed out after going through a period of sideways movement following a rise and then sideways movement following a decline. Despite multiple negative factors, it shows the strength to hold up firmly, suggesting that institutional buying played a key role in the index's rebound. There is now a positive outlook that it is time to look upward rather than downward.

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