Foreigners Defend Index Ahead of Futures Expiry

The reason for this large-scale selling by individual investors is not yet clearly understood.

Nevertheless, foreign investors are still maintaining their long bets.

This requires an additional increase of about 7% from the current index level. Due to this, there is a possibility that foreigners will try to drive up the index before the expiry date.

Considering KOSDAQ's volatility, an additional increase of about 10.5%, higher than the KOSPI's rise, is also possible.

This is analyzed as a reflection of the market's concerns about interest rate increases.

Analysis of the Bank of Korea's dot plot suggests no further interest rate hikes this year. Accordingly, the recent two-week correction is interpreted as the market pre-reflecting the interest rate hike, and major market risks are considered to have disappeared.

The main point of addition is the expectation of a short squeeze, with a 5% allocation purchased and plans for an additional purchase up to 10% if it declines.

Caution was advised regarding a trend upward for biotech stocks. It was analyzed that it is difficult for a stock that has been declining for seven months to fully rebound in just one month. The process of an inverse array stock transitioning to a direct array takes time, and opinions advocating for a short-term trend reversal should be approached with caution. This is likened to the difficulty of significantly improving math scores in a short period.

It was stated that a short squeeze return of at least 20% to 30% can be expected from these stocks.

Alteogen was also positively evaluated, but it was added that it needs to be approached with a longer-term perspective rather than a short-term one.

JPMorgan provided positive outlooks and raised price targets for Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution. Among these, Samsung SDI was evaluated as being in the best technical position with a perfect direct array on its chart, while EcoPro BM was analyzed as failing to overcome its mid-to-long-term downward trend.

It was stated that investing in 2nd batteries right now should be approached cautiously, but if one insists on investing, only EcoPro BM is viable. EcoPro BM has about 25-30% additional upside potential to its mid-to-long-term technical rebound target. It is expected that the 2nd battery rebound will conclude once EcoPro BM and EcoPro rise.

After a significant market decline in July, August was evaluated as a matching-game market with technical rebounds. It was analyzed that there was no clear leading sector in August. Concerns were raised that in September and October, there might be no leading sector, and unpredictable risks could arise, causing commodity prices to surge and trouble the domestic stock market. A strategy of betting on a 'soon bus' (inverse 2x) was mentioned in preparation for such a correction period.

Considering that the typical payback period for manufacturing investment is three years, a long-term boom is expected until 2031.

Concerns about AI CapEx (capital expenditure) peaking out were completely refuted. It was explained that revenue growth of over 70% is projected until 2028, proving the continued demand for semiconductors. It was emphasized that theories about a slowdown in hyper-scaler investments are merely political factors and lack realism.

This strategy criticizes the inefficiency of diversified investment and aims to maximize returns through selection and concentration.