As market uncertainty grows due to sustained upward pressure on US Treasury yields and deteriorating macro indicators, a conservative short-term trading strategy is needed despite SK Hynix's shareholder return policy.
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Manager Sung Ha-joon stated that there was a problem with the morning broadcast, causing a delay of about 10 minutes. He mentioned that he received help from AI to solve these technical issues, and the AI presented solutions very intelligently.
He diagnosed that despite SK Hynix's announcement of its shareholder return policy, the market is currently on alert. The continuous deterioration of macro indicators is dampening investor sentiment, emphasizing the urgent need to establish appropriate response strategies.
Although the U.S. Treasury doubled its Treasury buyback size from $2 billion to $4 billion, Treasury yields continue to show an upward trend. The analysis suggests that buybacks merely act as a temporary brake to prevent a sharp rise in interest rates, not a structural factor for rate declines. Market participants interpret the effect of buybacks as a short-term positive, expecting upward pressure on interest rates to persist. This is because buybacks fundamentally do not reduce the volume of Treasury issuance itself.
He predicted that interest rates would be frozen in the two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in September and October. However, he analyzed that the probability of interest rate hikes is higher thereafter, warning of significant uncertainty regarding future interest rate policies.
He emphasized that Treasury buybacks are not a measure to directly lower Treasury yields but merely act as a brake to curb a sharp rise in interest rates. He explained that for a genuine drop in yields, Treasury issuance itself must be reduced. He added that market participants interpret the effect of buybacks as short-term due to these structural limitations.
He analyzed that long-term interest rates are rising due to competition between Treasury bond issuance to cover the US fiscal deficit and corporate bond issuance to expand investment in the AI market, as market funds are limited. He explained that bond investors demanding higher yields are sustaining upward pressure on interest rates, and the hawkish interest rate decisions expected from the FOMC are also affecting long-term interest rates.
He analyzed that the recent decline in the exchange rate was due to the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee's decision to raise interest rates. Although the interest rate difference with the United States had widened to an unprecedented level for several months, the BOK's interest rate hike narrowed the gap, leading to a recovery in demand for the Korean won. He emphasized that resolving the interest rate gap is more crucial to the exchange rate's impact than short-term interest rate hikes. He added that careful observation of these exchange rate changes is necessary as they also affect the domestic market.
He pointed out that two key factors must be resolved for an interest rate cut cycle to begin. First is oil price stability, which he suggested should fall to the 68-72 dollar level. Second is the resolution of tariff issues. He emphasized that the FOMC could consider interest rate cuts only if these two issues are resolved, urging daily monitoring of 10-year Treasury yields and oil price trends.
He strongly recommended maintaining a '4848 (buy and sell)' short-term trading strategy until market macro indicators are confirmed stable. He emphasized that it is important to closely monitor the trend of 10-year Treasury yields and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, and to secure cash by selling some holdings when they reach break-even or a small profit. This strategy aims to minimize risk and respond flexibly in uncertain market conditions.
He presented the US 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% as a crucial benchmark for market response. He explained that if the 10-year yield falls below 4.5% and stock prices rise, a holding strategy can be maintained. However, he stressed that if the 10-year yield exceeds 4.5% and stock prices rise, it should be considered a short-term trend and sold unconditionally, urging mechanical response to market movements.
The market positively interpreted SK Hynix's method of paying employee bonuses 40% in cash and 60% in stock. This is expected to help maintain the company's cash generation by reducing cash outflow, and also to encourage employees to become shareholders and more actively participate in enhancing corporate value. However, he explained that there are some market concerns regarding the possibility of employees selling their shares.
He judged that the possibility of buying SK Hynix is now open and proposed a phased buying strategy. The specific buying range was presented as between 1,636,000 won and 1,560,000 won. He evaluated SK Hynix as having higher buying appeal compared to Samsung Electronics and recommended a cautious approach at this price range.
He pointed out that SK Hynix's upside potential could be limited if the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%. Despite the positive effects of the shareholder return policy, he predicted that range-bound trading is likely to continue until long-term interest rates fall due to macroeconomic pressures. Therefore, he emphasized the need for a conservative approach considering external variables.
He presented technical response price levels for SK Hynix. The strong resistance level is 1,750,000 won, and the primary target price is set at 1,947,000 won. He also suggested a secondary resistance level of 2,190,000 won, advising to establish trading strategies referencing these price levels. The primary support level should be considered between 1,546,000 won and 1,636,000 won.
He proposed a phased buying band for Samsung Electronics between 241,200 won and 259,000 won. This strategy is valid assuming SK Hynix's shareholder return plan meets market expectations. Samsung Electronics is expected to benefit from the foundry business and the accompanying growth of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with many positive long-term factors analyzed. However, he added that a cautious approach is necessary given the macroscopic market uncertainties.
He set the first target price for Samsung Electronics at 296,000 won, and the final target price at 318,500 won. He explained that these target prices do not yet reflect the effect of price increases (10-15%) in the foundry division, mentioning that there could be additional upside if the price increase effect is reflected in the future. He emphasized that as these target prices are set from a technical perspective, flexible response according to market conditions is necessary.
He named Gaonchips as the stock to watch most closely as a design house partner for Samsung's foundry business. He analyzed that Gaonchips is a key stock to benefit from the trickle-down effect of the foundry ecosystem, and its current stock price is at a bottom, with significant upside potential for re-evaluation. The minimum confirmed support price is 50,100 won, and he predicted that Gaonchips' performance will grow alongside the foundry industry's expansion. He added that Gaonchips' value will be further highlighted as its collaboration with Samsung Electronics strengthens.
He named Legochem Biosciences as a promising investment stock, highlighting its ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) platform technology and extensive contract achievements (e.g., Johnson & Johnson, Oncolytic Therapeutics) as strengths. He particularly emphasized that three clinical data release schedules are awaiting in the second half of the year, and it is a company with genuinely valid clinical data and numerous contract disclosures. Despite the high-interest rate environment, its current stock price is in an undervalued range, making it highly attractive as a stock with technology transfer momentum and clinical data acquisition.
He presented Legochem Biosciences' bottom support line at 104,000 won, judging that it would not fall below this price. He set the first target price and resistance level at 116,900 won, explaining the short-term response strategy. He advised using these price levels, derived from technical analysis, as a reference for investment.
He presented Legochem Biosciences' short-term resistance price at 122,690 won. While the short-term upside potential is not high, he predicted that the three clinical data announcements scheduled for the second half of the year would be significant drivers for stock price appreciation. Therefore, he added that it is necessary to establish an investment strategy focusing on clinical results from a long-term perspective.
He analyzed that low-point buying is flowing into KOSDAQ companies, especially in the bio sector, regardless of the KOSPI market's rise, and recommended increasing portfolio weight. He explained that foreign and institutional investors' response to the KOSDAQ market is changing as the perception that there's nowhere lower to go has spread in the market. This suggests that the KOSDAQ market, especially technologically capable bio companies, is emerging as a new investment destination.
He urged adherence to the presented price levels for the next day's market response. He predicted that if US Treasury yields maintain the upper bound of 4.6%, large-cap stocks are likely to trade sideways. In such market movements, he emphasized that a mechanical response strategy aligned with the presented price levels is crucial, requiring flexible and swift trading decisions. He reiterated that disciplined investment is important given the high market uncertainty.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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