Stock Market Post-Chuseok, Anticipation of a Bull Market

Kang Gwan-woo, CEO of The Premier, stated that foreign investors should focus not only on the spot market but also on the futures market.

On this day, foreign investors bought over 1 trillion won in futures, driving up the index. Although spot buying was limited, futures buying alone was sufficient to lift the index.

Analysis suggests that the market has largely factored in the possibility of further interest rate hikes indicated by the Fed's dot plot.

Expectations also arose that international oil prices could fall due to potential progress in unofficial negotiations between the US and Iran. Attention is focused on whether these geopolitical events will have a positive impact on the market.

Even if the stock market was weak before the holiday, the average return after Chuseok was higher at 1.65%. Regardless of stock price movements before and after the holiday, a clear upward trend is observed after Chuseok.

The impact of a US-China summit on the market is expected to be limited. Potential progress in unofficial negotiations between the US and Iran could lead to lower international oil prices.

The possibility of political changes for former President Trump, ahead of the midterm elections, could open the door for unofficial negotiations.

China is attempting to retaliate against the US with export controls on rare earths. However, the US maintains a strict stance on blocking the leakage of semiconductor technology, which is critical for national security.

The possibility of allowing semiconductor equipment into China is considered low. The US has maintained an extremely cautious stance against China's technological pursuit since the Trump administration.

Ahead of the final signing of the strategic investment agreement with the US tomorrow, concerns are rising that acquiring a 7% stake without decision-making power is an inefficient investment.

Acquiring a stake without decision-making authority is an inefficient investment that only incurs costs. Critics argue that simply acquiring shares is meaningless.

Bernstein estimated that NAND contract prices rose by about 20% in Q3.

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, predicted that GPU sales would double next year. Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings surprises, indicating an overall positive market situation.

Samsung Electronics' Q3 operating profit consensus is approximately 11.5 trillion won. However, if currency effects are removed, the estimated actual operating profit would be between 12.5 trillion won and 13 trillion won.

Despite cost burdens such as bonus payments, Samsung Electronics is expected to maintain its robust earnings trend.

While semiconductor export values show an increase month-over-month and year-over-year, export unit prices are on a downward trend. This is analyzed to be partly due to exchange rate effects.

A decline in HBM export unit prices is difficult to conclude due to issues with the scope of statistical coverage. Mix improvement focusing on high-value-added products is key to enhancing profit margins.

In the semiconductor market, an increase in volume (Q) is more significant than an increase in product price (P). A rise in volume means an expanding demand base.

As stated by Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, AI semiconductor sales are projected to double next year. These export data serve as evidence of the semiconductor industry's continued robust performance.

The possibility of semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and Hynix surpassing their previous highs is being mentioned. CEO Kang Gwan-woo advised maintaining a strategy of holding shares and receiving dividends, as stock prices are expected to rise further.

In a rising stock market, stock price appreciation holds greater value than dividend yield. A low dividend yield is paradoxically interpreted as a signal that the stock is undervalued.

This implies that investors should approach the market with a focus on capital gains from stock price increases.

Following a rally primarily driven by front-end processes in H1, back-end companies are showing remarkable strength in H2. Presenter Kwon Mi-jeon noted that stock price increases for back-end related companies such as SFA Semiconductor, YC, Hana Micron, and DI are particularly prominent.

With TSMC's increased capital expenditure (CAPEX), Samsung Electronics and Hynix are also entering expansion mode, creating an environment where equipment manufacturers across the board benefit from the market.

The Chinese market is seeing strong volumes due to the National Day and Singles' Day effect.

The US market also shows robust export performance despite a high base effect. Analysis suggests paying attention to related stocks such as Kolmar Korea (ODM) and Silicon2 (distribution).