SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Soar at Close, But Now Is a Cautionary Zone for Buying

Today, Samsung Electronics closed at 274,500 won, and SK Hynix closed at 1,645,000 won. Samsung Electronics recorded a 3% increase, and SK Hynix saw a 2.4% increase. Samsung Electronics broke past the 275,000 won resistance level and entered an upward trend, while SK Hynix also approached the 1,680,000 won resistance level, showing an upward movement, but has not yet fully risen above the upward trend.

When I uploaded a video on August 5th about the bottom and the start of a major rebound for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, there were countless mocking and malicious comments at the time, calling it an 'human indicator.' There was a lot of criticism towards those who predicted a market decline then, but now the market sentiment has reversed.

The main reason for the rise in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics today is due to the rally in the US stock market. As the US stock market rose, the domestic stock market also showed a correlative upward trend. In this way, a mood of continuous upward movement is beginning, with the US and domestic markets positively influencing each other with infinite momentum.

The current market has reached the upper end of the upward trend, so caution should be exercised when buying. Those who advocated for a decline in the past are now shifting to a long (buy) perspective and trying to find a buying timing. If you buy now, you must become a 'true long-term bull' who believes in this upward trend and continues to hold even if the stock price falls, otherwise, you must prepare for volatility. It is highly likely that investors who were looking at a downside position at this point will now enter the market for the first time with expectations of a rise.

The market is changing, and investment perspectives must adapt flexibly. This is not 'changing one's words,' but adapting to changing market conditions. Currently, put option prices have fallen sharply, and no one is looking at the downside, so if an unexpected shock occurs, the market could become vulnerable.

Too much capital is currently concentrated in long (upward) positions, increasing the possibility of a correction. When expectations for a rise reach their peak, a phenomenon called 'capitulation' can occur, where short position investors who bet on a downside surrender and join in buying, further driving up stock prices. At this point, 'doctors' emerge who are caught up in 'euphoria,' believing everyone will get rich.

Currently, most stocks in both the US and domestic markets have risen close to resistance levels. In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has reached near the upper end of its upward trend, and if it rises by just 2-3% more from here, it will reach the very top. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for the possibility of an inflection point and a decline at this level.

The atmosphere between Iran and the United States remains tense. Iran continues to make statements, refuting former President Trump's claims as false and exerting pressure. This tension has driven up oil prices to $82. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose to 4.7% and showed a renewed increase after the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Recently released CPI and PPI figures acted as positive catalysts, contributing to the market's rally. The possibility of an interest rate hike in September was 50-50, but it has now fallen to 30%, making a September rate hike unlikely. These expectations have been reflected in the market, driving a cyclical upward trend, with AI-related stocks showing significant gains in particular.

SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders. Furthermore, it projected maintaining an operating profit margin of 75% and a gross margin of 80% until 2028, stimulating buying across the memory industry.

NeoCloud-related stocks such as CallWeave, Nevius, and Island, which had recently surged, plummeted from their highs today. CallWeave fell 9% from its high of $116, Nevius dropped up to 9.5% from its high, and Island closed at $44 from $49, a decline of nearly 10%. Without any specific negative news, profit-taking due to short-term surges led to a decline across the optical sector.

Even in the semiconductor sector, the possibility of a correction due to profit-taking cannot be ruled out. It is important to understand why the market is rising and to prepare for a short-term downside. Investors looking to take a long position now should either be true bulls who continue to expect a rise, or only invest if they can withstand a 10% to 20% decline based on individual stocks. Otherwise, it is a wise strategy to wait until the market stabilizes before entering.