Government Policies Worsen Instability in Jeonse and Monthly Rental Market

These policies are causing homeowners to either reside in their homes directly or sell them, leading to a supply shortage in the jeonse and monthly rental market.

As a result, tenants are losing housing stability and are forced to find new residences. While this might be an issue of profitability for landlords, for tenants, it acts as a burden of unavoidable eviction, as they have no choice.

In line with this philosophy, the government is attempting to block unearned income by directly supplying public rentals through LH. The goal is to use the collected taxes to provide basic housing and basic income.

This is analyzed as reflecting the government's strong will to fundamentally change the structure of the real estate market and pursue social equality through income redistribution.

However, there is an analysis that the speed of policy implementation may be adjusted.

This can be interpreted as a move to flexibly adjust the intensity of policies, considering the support base and market conditions. However, the basic philosophy of viewing real estate income as unearned income is expected to remain unchanged.

In particular, high-priced homes exceeding 2 billion or 3 billion won are expected to be the primary targets for recoupment measures.

This is analyzed as aiming for a 'two birds with one stone' effect: curbing the high-priced housing market to calm overall real estate market overheating, while simultaneously securing financial resources through tax collection.

Data analysis confirms an increase in listings and a downward trend in the 4 to 5 billion won range of high-priced housing. This trend is predicted to continue until 2027.

Due to the impact of government policies, high-priced homeowners are likely to continuously put properties on the market as they dispose of their homes or convert them for actual residence.

As a result, the high-priced housing market is expected to show price adjustments and sustained listing burdens for the time being.

This is because the 8-year long-term rental period induced at the time will expire.

In particular, a concentrated release of properties is expected in top-tier areas such as Gangnam and Songpa. This is anticipated to significantly impact the jeonse and monthly rental market in those regions.

The biggest victims of government policies are analyzed to be jeonse and monthly rental tenants. As landlords convert homes for actual residence or sell them, tenants are facing a situation where they have no choice but to leave their residences.

Simultaneously, due to rising jeonse prices and restrictions on jeonse loans, tenants are virtually unable to convert to purchasing. This is expected to accelerate the rate at which tenants are pushed further into outer areas.

While it may be a matter of profitability for landlords, for tenants, it is a critical issue directly linked to housing stability. They are at risk of losing their livelihoods due to policy changes.

This is interpreted as a combined result of the 'one smart home' preference phenomenon and past experience of market downturns.

As demand arises to move to higher-tier areas even within local regions, homes in relatively inferior areas are likely to come onto the market. This phenomenon suggests that even with an overall price increase in the local housing market, properties may continue to be released in specific areas.