Strengthening US-South Korea Alliance and Cracks in North Korea's Regime

The US currently has fewer tactical nuclear weapons than expected, making permanent deployment to the Korean Peninsula difficult. However, even without placing nuclear warheads directly on the peninsula, deterrence can be maintained by deploying tactical nuclear weapons on US warships to the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula when needed.

Tactical nuclear weapons are intended for direct use on the battlefield to neutralize enemy forces. In contrast, strategic nuclear weapons are larger-scale nuclear weapons used to destroy the adversary nation's ability to wage war, thereby paralyzing its national functions.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has identified South Korea's Dosan Ahn Chang-ho submarine as a key asset for countering Chinese aircraft carriers. This submarine, built with South Korea's indigenous technology, possesses excellent capabilities to block Chinese aircraft carriers' passage to the Pacific at any time, making it an important asset for the US-South Korea alliance.

The US-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty, signed in the United States on October 1, 1953, is not limited to the defense of the Korean Peninsula. The geographical scope of the defense treaty specified in the agreement is the 'Pacific Area,' meaning broader alliance obligations, including countering China, may apply, not just North Korea.

Since the Trump administration, the US has considered utilizing foreign companies to address its domestic shipbuilding infrastructure and labor shortages. With the US currently having extremely limited warship construction capabilities, it is seeking a partnership with South Korea's excellent shipbuilding industry to counter China.

Currently, about 93% of global shipbuilding capacity is held by China (50%), South Korea (28%), and Japan (15%). In contrast, the US has extremely limited warship construction capabilities. Therefore, the US considers cooperation with the South Korean shipbuilding industry essential to effectively counter China.

The United States has drafted a bill to impose a $1 million fee on Chinese-built ships entering US ports. While the US's intention is to deter China, this could inadvertently benefit the South Korean shipbuilding industry.

Observations from Ukraine suggest that the scale of additional North Korean troop deployments could increase from the initial 30,000 to as many as 50,000. North Korea does not transparently disclose casualty or injury lists for deployed personnel, and it is analyzed that the deployment aims to replenish aging conventional military forces and acquire military technology from Russia.

North Korea's newest aircraft date back to the early 1990s, making them over 30 years old. The main tank, the T-72, is also an old model from about 50 years ago, and the entire conventional force system, including submarines, is severely outdated. This aging of weapons leads to a decline in the North Korean military's combat effectiveness.

The deployment of North Korean troops is primarily attributed to securing funds for Kim Jong Un's personal finances, known as the 'Palace Economy.' While North Korea's military and underground economies are maintained, the civilian economy has virtually collapsed. The closer ties with Russia can also be interpreted as a kind of safeguard to avoid the threat of Chinese occupation.

North Korea's laying of mines in the DMZ is interpreted as an unusual move for an attacking force. Analysis suggests its primary purpose is to block internal dissenting forces from defecting to South Korea, rather than to attack South Korea. North Korea has recently taken steps to solidify its borders after declaring South Korea a 'hostile and separate state.'

North Korean authorities are conducting extensive inspections targeting high-ranking officials. This is interpreted as a significant weakening of Kim Jong Un's sacred authority compared to the eras of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Currently, approximately 6 million mobile phones are distributed in North Korea, making it difficult to block the inflow of external information, which poses significant challenges to internal control.

North Korea continues to experience military purges and instability, with even generals reaching a state of uncontrolled behavior, indicating serious problems in organizational management. These signs suggest that the communist one-man dictatorship can no longer be sustained, and some in the US are raising the possibility of North Korea's collapse.

There is a trend of reduced military participation in North Korea's official events. This is interpreted as a sign of internal military purges and the spread of fear and apprehension within the military.

The Chinese Central Military Commission, composed of 7 members, currently has only 2 remaining, failing to meet the quorum. This suggests internal division and purges within the Central Military Commission, leading to dysfunction in the core power organ.

Kim Jong Un's accompaniment of Kim Ju-ae during visits to military units is interpreted as part of a 'human shield' strategy rather than an indication of her emergence as a successor. This is seen as an attempt to protect Kim Jong Un from potential US assassination attempts, and given the reality that it is difficult for a female leader to emerge in North Korea's Confucian communist society, the succession theory is considered less plausible.

Kim Il Sung's Juche farming method, which involved cutting down trees on mountains to create fields, led to large-scale deforestation and bare mountains in North Korea. This has raised riverbeds, increasing the risk of flooding, and annually recurring heavy rains have caused structural problems to worsen, including the inundation of military facilities and nuclear sites. This demonstrates how the environmental disaster caused by Juche farming is further highlighting the North Korean regime's vulnerabilities.