October, Semiconductors Run Again

In the domestic stock market, retail investors are showing a repeated pattern of buying near the 2,600 level and taking profits above the 2,700 level.

Even though the U.S. Nasdaq index continues its strength, selling by domestic retail investors stands out.

A forecast is being raised that the next stage of artificial intelligence (AI) development will return to hardware again.

In particular, DRAM-related needs and demand are becoming very hot, and the terms of long-term supply agreements (LTAs) between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are trending favorably for suppliers.

Despite the high interest rate environment, the biotech sector has empty supply and demand, and interest from some investors is increasing.

An event-driven strategy using the momentum of academic conferences held in succession from late September is analyzed to be effective.

Analysts assess the nuclear sector as a target that should be approached again with divided buying after the sell-on phenomenon.

If U.S.-China tech tensions ease, profit-taking selling may emerge in equipment stocks, and since equipment stocks have recently risen sharply on a weekly basis, caution is needed about the possibility of a technical correction.

Investor Miller bought Lam Research even while reducing his equity weighting in the second quarter, acknowledging the value of semiconductor equipment stocks.

The Doosan Group's visit to the semiconductor materials supply chain is related to the trend of rising copper clad laminate (CCL) prices.

Currently, semiconductor equipment stocks' price-to-earnings ratios (PERs) reach 80-90 times, which may look overvalued, but equipment orders at the level of long-term agreements (LTAs) extend beyond delivery points in 2026-2027. Therefore, the analysis suggests that if evaluated by pre-reflecting profits two years out, the current high valuation can be tolerated.

When the semiconductor cycle turns around, equipment is deployed in the early stage of factory construction and materials enter in the final stage, so materials stocks tend to move later than equipment stocks.

If the flow in equipment stocks remains strong after Chuseok and the U.S. market atmosphere is positive, materials stocks are also expected to enter a synchronized rally phase.

In the past, the Yeouido investment community actively held heated debates about stocks, but recently such scenes have decreased.

This is because the emergence of generative AI such as ChatGPT and Claude has made information search and document writing routine, reducing the need to argue at offline gatherings.

Ordinary users do not feel the need to use high-performance, high-cost AI for simple conversations or tasks, and due to cost burdens, they tend to choose only the services they need rather than subscribing to multiple paid services at once.

Meta plans to enhance convenience in daily life by providing user-tailored AI features.

It is presenting utility value such as reducing unnecessary fixed expenses through data analysis, and has signaled plans to charge fees in return for providing such services.

However, in sensitive areas involving personal information such as payments, security remains a key challenge.

The spread of edge devices is expected to sharply increase demand for central processing units (CPUs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and NAND flash.

This is expected to bring a simultaneous rise in semiconductor 'P (price) + Q (volume).'

As a result, the investment perspective on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is shifting from doubt to trust.

The full-scale spread of AI devices will lead a strong recovery in the memory semiconductor industry and will also have a positive impact on related materials, components, and equipment companies.

The latest reports and earnings trends related to substrates are being evaluated positively, and analysis suggests that if the semiconductor market moves in the same direction, Haesung DS's stock price could be attractive.

Confident comments from Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement and earnings call in early October are important, and with retail investors' selling sentiment remaining, strong supply and demand from foreign and institutional investors will be a major variable for breaking out of the box range.

While supply bottlenecks continue with delivery times for equipment and components more than doubling, confirming demand imbalance, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of companies connected to specific data changes, such as Duksan Hi-Metal.

Data-centric pharma and biotech companies such as Lunit will play a big role in the future medical market, and this sector is highly likely to have future value such that current stock price levels become a fond memory later.

Recently, a 'sell-on' phenomenon has appeared in infrastructure-related stocks such as nuclear power, causing stock price corrections. This is interpreted as the result of the perception spreading among investors that major catalysts such as U.S. investment have already been priced into the market.