Semiconductor and Robot Stocks Rise on Hopes for Rate Freeze

Remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for two consecutive days significantly contributed to alleviating concerns about interest rate hikes in the market. They conveyed messages hinting that rate hikes are not definitive, leading to a widespread perception among market participants that the likelihood of additional rate hikes would decrease. This atmosphere had a positive impact on the overall market.

Despite uncertainties in the global macro environment, the semiconductor industry related to artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is maintaining very robust fundamentals. Broadcom, in particular, is recording astonishing AI-related sales figures, and prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and general semiconductors are also expected to remain higher than anticipated. Currently, a mismatch is occurring where stock prices deviate from their true value due to macro variables and supply-demand issues, but experts analyze that selling semiconductor stocks at this point entails significant risk.

Today's rise in the domestic stock market was driven by foreign investors' spot and futures buying. Considering that foreign selling was a major cause when the market previously dropped by nearly 3.9%, foreign influence was significant in this rally as well. Institutional investors' buying is understood to be mainly due to program buying linked to foreign futures buying. Therefore, the current market is being led by foreign investors as the main buyers.

Today's net selling of 4.3 trillion Korean Won by individual investors is interpreted as a process of unwinding previously underwater positions as the index rose. Individual investors typically place sell orders at higher prices, so their overall impact on the market is relatively minor. Experts advise that there is no compelling reason to sell now, given that the market is in an uptrend, but also analyze that it is an unavoidable aspect given the nature of a market where someone inevitably sells.

Recent statements by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are seen as expressing a principled stance, with the dominant view that future interest rate hikes will be determined by employment data and inflation indicators. Specifically, strong employment figures could increase pressure for rate hikes, while signs of moderating inflation could lead to a halt in rate increases. Therefore, investors should closely monitor upcoming U.S. employment and inflation economic indicators for crucial clues regarding rate decisions.

Robot-related company Robotis is exploring business strategies by focusing on Uzbekistan's labor cost competitiveness. Uzbekistan's labor costs are known to be 70-80% cheaper than China's. This acts as a strategic advantage, allowing for the efficient supply of large-scale personnel needed for robot data training, thereby increasing market interest in Robotis.

The current robot-related stock market is showing a rotational trading pattern where various stocks rise in turns rather than a specific stock continuously climbing. In such a market, chasing specific stocks that have already risen is to be avoided. Instead, a strategy of entering during 'buy on dips' periods, when stock prices temporarily decline, is effective, allowing for risk management while seizing profit opportunities.

OpenAI announced the official opening of the agent AI market by unveiling 'GPT-6 Astra'. This model is reported to have been trained using as many as 100,000 GPUs, underscoring the tremendous speed of AI technology development and investment scale. OpenAI's move is expected to further accelerate the competition for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which will lead to an expansion of semiconductor and data center infrastructure investment (CapEx).

Broadcom provided unprecedentedly specific and confident forecasts for AI semiconductor revenue. It stated that AI semiconductor revenue will reach $15 billion next year and more than double to over $20 billion the year after. This confidence stems from securing major clients such as OpenAI and Anthropic, leading to a surge in data center demand. Broadcom is already preparing for future growth by securing 15 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity, more than three times Google's total investment this year.

The key driver of current semiconductor industry investment is the conviction in AI's future value, rather than macro environments like interest rate hikes. Experts analyze that even if interest rates are raised once or twice, there will be no real limitations on companies' investment plans for AI growth. This is because AI is the future growth engine of the U.S., and investments are continuing based on this future vision. The U.S. government is also actively supporting the growth of the AI industry.

One of the main causes of recent market shock was the concern that the Bank of Japan might undertake a 'big step' rather than just a simple interest rate hike. The possibility of Japan raising interest rates multiple times at once emerged, leading to a strengthening of the yen, which caused significant volatility in global capital flows. This shift to a stronger yen is interpreted as having had a considerable impact on the market yesterday.

Hanmi Semiconductor has signed a supply contract worth approximately 20 billion Korean Won for 2.5D packaging equipment with an OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) company in Taiwan. Hanmi Semiconductor is currently developing three types of 2.5D packaging equipment, and one of them appears to have been sold to the Taiwanese market. This contract suggests that it has passed call tests by major OSAT companies in Taiwan, including TSMC, increasing the possibility of additional supply to companies like ASE Taiwan in the future.

This contract with the Taiwanese OSAT company is expected to be an important opportunity for Hanmi Semiconductor to reduce its reliance on SK Hynix and expand its customer base to TSMC-affiliated OSAT companies. Hanmi Semiconductor is also actively pursuing global market expansion, including establishing a local subsidiary in San Jose, California, to target global OSAT companies such as Amkor in the United States. This is evaluated as a strategy to secure Hanmi Semiconductor's long-term growth engine.

The semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (SooBujang) sector is expected to have a longer upward cycle than Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix. The semiconductor industry as a whole is currently in a phase of expanding investment, and SooBujang companies, particularly those supplying bonding equipment due to increased demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), are expected to benefit greatly. Therefore, it has been suggested that investors should include some semiconductor SooBujang-related stocks in their portfolios.

After September, corporate fundamentals are expected to play a more important role in the market than interest rate hike issues. Experts believe the market will continue its upward trend despite some bumps, and that the market bottom was already formed in late July to early August. Therefore, in the current rotational market, investors should maintain a 30-50% allocation to core stocks like semiconductors and actively use 'buy on dips' strategies when prices temporarily decline.

The current market is showing a rotational pattern, with stocks moving like blood circulation, making a 'waiting for the turn' strategy important. Rather than chasing stocks that are sharply rising from the bottom, it is wise to patiently wait for a stock to rise and then pull back before entering. In such cases, it is best to approach with a short-term perspective and act quickly, and stable access is needed rather than aiming for large profits by committing excessive capital at once.