Oil Prices Drop as Houthi Airstrikes Postponed; Relief Amid Continued Instability

This measure was taken to avoid the expected surge in oil prices and global financial market disruption if the airstrikes were executed, and investors showed relief upon news of the postponement.

Through this pipeline, crude oil was being exported to the Red Sea, but the increasing risk of Houthi rebel attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Yanbu export port—from which countries like South Korea primarily import crude oil—is stimulating oil price increases.

Based on strong pride and religious differences, they possess an independent decision-making system and are continuously expanding their influence on global crude oil supply.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia's regular army of 250,000 is highly reliant on foreign mercenaries, and their will to fight in real combat is uncertain, suggesting a weaker ability to respond to Houthi rebels.

They possess sufficient weapon systems to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and it is analyzed that they have secured firepower beyond that of typical rebel groups through additional support from Iran.

Saudi Arabia's advanced Patriot missiles and other defensive weapons have been largely depleted by continuous drone and missile attacks from Iran.

Houthi rebels are employing a pressure strategy to induce negotiation terms, exploiting Saudi Arabia's weakened air defense system, while Saudi Arabia faces the issue of dispersed defense capabilities due to other war-related issues.

Houthi rebels are pressing ahead with provocations in anticipation of being excluded from US-Iran negotiations.

They aim to strengthen their relationship with Iran and secure a stake in the post-war Middle East order by attacking Saudi territory to cut off the funding of Yemeni government forces and gaining an advantageous position for expelling Yemeni government forces.

They aim to utilize the acquired energy resources to sell fuel to 25 million people within Yemen and strengthen military capabilities, thereby enhancing their self-sufficiency.

While agreeing to a mutual cessation of attacks with the Trump administration in May 2025, they have shown a tendency to maximize strategic advantages by circumventing agreement terms through attacking third-country vessels, excluding US ships.

This coalition is pursuing a plan to enhance military power by combining Saudi Arabia's financial strength, Turkey's latest US weapons (as a NATO member), and Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

The possibility of Turkey providing air defense facilities is particularly raised, which could serve as a significant variable in the reshaping of Middle Eastern hegemony.

Egypt's Suez Canal revenue decreased by $3.9 billion from $10.2 billion in 2023 to $6.3 billion in 2024.

Egypt, economically hit by reduced Suez Canal traffic, requests the Houthi rebels' activities to be curbed, while Iran supports the Houthis and Saudi Arabia supports the Yemeni government forces, escalating the conflict.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in conflict due to supporting different civil war factions, and with China and Russia also getting involved, the number of countries entangled in the Yemen issue—including Saudi Arabia, the US, Iran, Egypt, and Turkey—is expanding, increasing its international repercussions.

Analysts suggest that external interveners prefer prolonging the war if they deem the benefits outweigh the costs, and the more such external forces there are, the more difficult it becomes to reach a peace agreement due to complex interests.

Depending on whether the Houthi rebels capture Marib, the Middle East situation and oil market are expected to follow three scenarios.

Currently, the strategic petroleum reserves of major countries, including the US, are already significantly depleted.

Analysis suggests that if both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea transit routes are blocked in a situation where reserves are exhausted, international oil prices could surge uncontrollably, reaching a critical point.

Furthermore, the Trump administration's early termination of the war will act as a future energy price variable.