Samsung Electronics Shareholder Returns Lead to 'Disappointment Selling', Foreigners Engage in Protest Sales... Hanmi Pharmaceutical's 3 Trillion Won Obesity Drug Export is a Double Whammy

Investors' disappointment grew as Samsung Electronics' shareholder return policy announcement did not include a plan to cancel treasury shares. This is analyzed to be intertwined with Samsung Group's equity structure and the Financial Industry Structure Improvement Act (Geumsan Act). The fact that Samsung Life Insurance and others hold Samsung Electronics shares has complicated the decision to repurchase treasury shares. As a result, many investors believe that Samsung Electronics' inability to announce treasury stock cancellation is due to these structural issues.

The market's reaction to Samsung Electronics' 110 trillion won shareholder return policy is lukewarm. The core issue is the absence of a cancellation plan, leading to questions about its effectiveness compared to SK Hynix, which cancelled 40 trillion won worth of treasury shares to enhance shareholder value. It is pointed out that treasury stock repurchases without cancellation have a limited effect on improving capital efficiency. Additionally, some opinions suggest that differences in free cash flow calculation methods, such as how employee bonuses are handled, impacted the perceived scale of shareholder returns.

An analysis suggests that foreign investors' dissatisfaction with Samsung Electronics' shareholder return policy was expressed through protest selling. It appears that foreigners took sell positions when Samsung Electronics' dividend policy did not meet their expectations. However, a late-session influx of futures buying helped reduce the decline. This can be interpreted as a sign that foreign investors may also be betting on a rebound after the spot market correction. Accordingly, a market rebound is anticipated for tomorrow.

Hanmi Pharmaceutical has exported its obesity drug technology to Genentech, a subsidiary of the Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Group. The total value of this contract amounts to 3.2 trillion won, with an upfront payment of 285 billion won. This is considered a significantly large licensing-out deal for a domestic bio company. This technology export is expected to act as a positive catalyst for the entire domestic biotech sector and influence the stock prices of related companies.

Among Hanmi Pharmaceutical's obesity treatment pipelines, the most notable feature was its ability to prevent muscle loss. Given that existing obesity treatments often lead to muscle mass reduction along with weight loss, there was high anticipation for this pipeline that allows for weight loss while preserving muscle. This technology was valued at 3 trillion won and led to a technology export despite being in Phase 1 clinical trials. In the future, technologies that minimize side effects and improve patients' quality of life are expected to determine competitiveness in the obesity treatment market.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, warned that a US debt crisis could occur within three years. He predicted that the dollar's value would continue to fall and recommended buying gold and Bitcoin while selling bonds. Dalio stated that Bitcoin, an asset not influenced by the government, could serve as a kind of safe haven in a situation where confidence in US Treasury bonds is weakening. The analysis suggests that if concerns about fiscal soundness deepen, investors will increasingly focus on assets free from government intervention.

Hyundai Motor is raising expectations for its robot value chain review and new businesses ahead of the upcoming Robot Investor Day. Considering that 60-70% of Tesla's Optimus robot components are Chinese-made, Hyundai Motor is expected to try to reduce its reliance on China for core components. In this process, domestic component companies integrated into Hyundai Motor's robot value chain could receive additional benefits. Research and learning outcomes in robot technology are expected to be announced at Investor Day.

Whether the July PCE price index can maintain 3.3% has emerged as a crucial factor in determining the direction of market interest rates. If the July PCE price index records 3.4% or higher, the probability of an interest rate hike could increase. The headline inflation is expected to be 3.6%. It is believed that if Treasury yields break through 5.3%, the KOSPI index could retest the early 2600 level.

While a freeze in interest rates by the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected, whether a 'hawkish signal' will be sent along with the freeze has emerged as a key variable. If the Monetary Policy Committee mentions the possibility of an interest rate hike in October or shows a split opinion, the market could perceive this as a 'hawkish freeze.' This means that while the rate freeze itself is positive, it could act as a signal that keeps open the possibility of future rate hikes, thereby putting pressure on the market.

Analysis suggests that the AI investment cycle has moved beyond simply focusing on investment size. It is now entering a phase where complex macroeconomic environment changes, including interest rates, must be considered comprehensively. Issues regarding the creditworthiness of corporate bonds issued by big tech companies are being highlighted, and the impact of rising long-term interest rates on corporate investment is increasing. Investors should not just look at the growth potential of the AI industry but closely examine how changes in interest rates will affect corporate funding and investment plans.

It is pointed out that unlike SK Hynix, which provided the market with the answers it wanted regarding shareholder returns, Samsung Electronics failed to meet market expectations due to various circumstances. The scale of shareholder returns was smaller than expected, and the desired method of treasury stock repurchase and cancellation was not implemented. As a result, skepticism and disappointment regarding Samsung Electronics' shareholder return policy still persist in the market.

The key checkpoints for Nvidia's earnings announcement are whether revenue guidance will be exceeded and the outlook for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand. Many opinions suggest that simply meeting consensus may not be enough given high market expectations. Furthermore, clear clarification is needed regarding concerns about reduced HBM usage in next-generation servers. The direction of the stock price will likely be determined by whether Nvidia can maintain its high gross profit margin of 75% and provide specific hints about the HBM market.

Although the index decline widened due to sharp drops in major large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the overall market situation was evaluated as 'not bad.' The actual market sentiment, relative to the index's decline, can be interpreted as having effectively closed in positive territory. In particular, the KOSDAQ market held up against the downturn, showing a defense of market trends, suggesting a relatively strong performance in sectors other than large-cap stocks.

After the weakening of the large-cap stock concentration on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, small and medium-cap stocks showed relative strength, creating a supply and demand vacuum. It is possible that the market will continue a frustrating trend, gradually raising its bottom until the end of August. However, a market-wide rebound can be expected in September as macroeconomic variables are resolved. This reflects the expectation that an environment will be created where various stocks can move, moving away from a market dominated by large-cap stocks.

The current market is evaluated as a good environment for highly skilled traders to make profits. A structure is forming where even following a stock that gaps up in the morning can yield 3-4% profit. However, it remains a difficult market for individual investors who lack confidence. Experts advise skilled traders that the 'buy on dip, buy on rise' strategy, or 'milsa ollsa,' is effective.

Opinions have emerged that excessive fear in the market should be cautioned against. Experts emphasized the need to confirm whether the KOSPI 20-day moving average, at 6480-6500 points, will be breached. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude rather than hasty stop-loss selling until the technical support line breaks. Conversely, if the market shows signs of raising its low point, waiting can also be a viable investment strategy.

The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee is largely expected to freeze interest rates. The Bank of Korea has historically taken a stance of raising or lowering interest rates quarterly, and given the most recent rate hike, the dominant opinion is that a freeze is likely this time. Furthermore, falling oil prices and a stabilized exchange rate at the 1380 won level are also influencing the hawkish freeze outlook of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Nvidia announced a 15% price increase for products shipped starting next year. This is interpreted as evidence that a semiconductor shortage persists, even with Nvidia's operating profit margin reaching 75%. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, is expected to positively impact Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix with his earnings announcement remarks. If Nvidia states that the situation is still manageable despite this, it could greatly benefit Samsung Electronics and Hynix.

Amid controversy over Samsung Life Insurance's holdings of Samsung Electronics shares potentially violating the Financial Industry Structure Improvement Act (Geumsan Act), a counter-argument was raised that the claim Samsung Electronics cannot cancel treasury shares due to the Geumsan Act is unconvincing. Samsung Life Insurance can adjust its shareholding ratio through block deals to meet regulatory requirements. This is because if the denominator is reduced, the numerator (shareholding) can also be reduced to maintain the original proportion. Therefore, using the Geumsan Act as a reason for not being able to cancel treasury shares is considered a weak argument.

The recent entry of the exchange rate into the 1300 won range is evaluated as a return to its proper level from the excessive 1560-1570 won range at the beginning of the year. Experts have argued since the beginning of the year that the appropriate exchange rate was in the 1300 won range, not 1400 won. This can be interpreted as a process of the excessively overvalued Korean won returning to its normal level.

The market has not yet fully grasped the new Fed Chairman 'Wash'. Unlike former Chairman Powell, Chairman Wash's policy style still has many ambiguous aspects. Chairman Wash is known to have expressed a negative stance on quantitative easing in the past, and market attention is focused on his future policy direction.

Criticism has emerged that Minister Besant's '333 policy' has shown insufficient results. This policy aimed for three goals: first, 3% GDP growth; second, a fiscal deficit within 3% of GDP; and third, an additional 3 million barrels of crude oil production per day. However, none of these three targets have been achieved to date. A skeptical view prevails, suggesting it is uncertain whether these goals will be easily met during the remaining two and a half years of his term.

Among experts, there was an opinion favoring investment in Samsung Electronics over Nvidia. The main reason cited was that Samsung Electronics' stock price had fallen the most from its peak, making its valuation attractive. Additionally, the expectation that Samsung Electronics will generate more profits next year and the year after was also presented as a reason for investment preference. This view places more emphasis on Samsung Electronics' long-term recovery and growth potential than on Nvidia's short-term upward trend.