KOSDAQ to Reach 900 Only After Bitcoin Falls... What's the Leverage Strategy Amidst Rebound Forecast in 2 Weeks?

Analysis suggests that a decline in the prices of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum is a prerequisite for the KOSDAQ to rebound. It's explained that the concentration of funds in the crypto market has a greater impact on stock market trends than interest rate hikes themselves. The recent rise in semiconductor-related stocks amidst a decline in the U.S. stock market is attributed to a crypto short-cover rally and market distortion resulting from it.

The KOSDAQ's adjustment today is largely considered to be in its final stages. There's a high probability that the KOSDAQ index will attempt to touch 900 points within the next two weeks, either next week or the week after.

According to AI quant model analysis, the crypto market is expected to conclude its short-term ascent and form a peak as of Friday. Subsequently, a general downturn in the crypto market is projected to begin next week. Funds exiting the crypto market are anticipated to flow into the stock market, serving as a powerful catalyst for a KOSDAQ rebound.

The KOSPI has not yet entered a short-term overheating zone according to technical indicators, suggesting room for further gains. In contrast, the KOSDAQ has already entered an overheating zone due to its recent rise and is assessed to have the potential for a short-term adjustment.

KOSDAQ leverage ETFs have a structural limitation due to the premium issue, making it difficult to recover initial investment even if the index recovers. Even if the KOSDAQ index recovers to 1000 points, leverage investors could still face a loss of about 8-9%. Analysis suggests the index needs to rise above 1000 points for investments to turn profitable.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the KOSDAQ is currently in a phase where the final 5-wave surge remains after 1-4 wave corrections. The short-term outlook for the KOSDAQ market is very positive, and it is advised to maintain a hold strategy without selling until the KOSDAQ index breaks above 930 points. However, a preference for the KOSPI, which shows a relatively stable uptrend compared to the KOSDAQ, was also mentioned.

The recent sharp decline in the KOSDAQ market is attributed to fund migration due to the surge in the crypto market. While there are idle funds in the stock market, concerns about interest rates have led to funds concentrating in the crypto market. Next week, the crypto market is expected to weaken, and these funds are projected to flow into the stock market, primarily growth stocks.

Most investors' cash holdings are understood to be around 10-20%. An aggressive investment strategy with minimal cash holdings will continue through public broadcasts until the target levels of KOSPI 800 points and KOSDAQ 950 points are reached.

In the current market phase, KOSPI leverage is deemed more advantageous than KOSDAQ leverage. The KOSPI is entering an uptrend with a higher probability of gains, whereas the KOSDAQ is expected to take time to transition into an uptrend, posing relatively higher risk for leverage investments.

The risk ratio (HR) of 0.4 points recorded in the Moderna mRNA cancer vaccine Keytruda combination Phase 3 trial was highlighted as significant. This figure is interpreted to indicate clinical success and the potential for entering the production phase. Global experts' final evaluation is scheduled for the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) in the third week of October, raising expectations in the academic community.

When deciding to buy stocks, it is emphasized to avoid those with unclear charts and trend waves. A strategy is proposed to select and invest primarily in stocks that break through an upward trend and transition into a direct array. The charts for EcoPro and Rainbow Robotics were classified as ambiguous at present.

Peptron's short-term supply and demand and main contract momentum are drawing attention. The signing of a main contract with Eli Lilly on September 7 is expected to be a crucial variable for stock price movement. A strong short squeeze is implied if the main contract materializes, and an aggressive buying strategy is suggested during corrections.

DND Pharmatech, which saw an 8-9% decline after being recommended last Tuesday, is currently in an ambiguous sideways phase. This is interpreted as still awaiting a short squeeze, and a strategy of maintaining purchases in the double bottom testing zone until the short squeeze occurs is suggested.

Analysis suggests SK Hynix's current stock price is extremely undervalued. It was noted that its price recovery lags behind Samsung Electronics, and considering its share buyback policy and over 50% free cash flow (FCF), its fair value should be 2.1 million won. Although the chart shows sideways movement, it is considered a time to aim for a rally with added momentum.

It was repeatedly emphasized that for the KOSDAQ to rise, the upward momentum of main cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, must halt and reverse into a decline after the opening of the US market. As the crypto short cover is expected to end over the weekend, market funds are projected to shift to the stock market. Consequently, there is a high probability that the KOSDAQ index will cautiously touch 900 points next week.

A list of 15 domestic semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (SooBujang) stocks expected to benefit if SK Hynix expands its plants in Japan was disclosed. This list, derived using AI technology (e.g., ChatGPT), identifies highly potential beneficiaries, with Tes ranking 1st, HPSP 2nd, KC 3rd, and Wonik IPS 4th. The expert emphasized that 5 of their own holdings are included in this list.