Warning Against Credit Margin Calls for Samsung and SK Hynix… Prepare for September Market with Breakout Trading

Today, the domestic stock market saw the KOSPI index fall by 1.8%, but analysis showed this was largely due to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with most other sectors actually closing in positive territory. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, stated, "I actually think the market was good today. The KOSPI fell 2% because of Samsung and SK Hynix, right? Most other sectors actually showed some positive performance." Rotational trading was observed in sectors such as biotech and cosmetics.

Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, assessed that cosmetics stocks are maintaining their role as market leaders. They tend to rise strongly even when the market is weak, suggesting that the cosmetics sector continues to act as a market mover. Yoo stated, "It still has the character of a market leader. The fact that cosmetics stocks rise even when the market is slightly unfavorable suggests they are playing a leading role, and they performed well today as well."

In just 15 trading days since August 4, the domestic stock market's margin lending volume increased by approximately 5.5 trillion won, from under 27 trillion won to 32.5 trillion won. Notably, most of the 4 trillion won increase in KOSPI margin lending was concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This concentration of credit buying in specific stocks is pointed out as a factor that could increase market instability by clashing with foreign selling.

The concentration of credit volume in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix raises concerns that foreign and institutional investors may lose their incentive to push up the prices of these stocks. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, explained, "If credit is concentrated only on Samsung and SK Hynix, not spread across multiple stocks, foreign investors and institutions might not find it attractive to push them up." This implies that concentrated credit investment increases the risk of position exposure, and attempts to absorb it through short-term share buybacks may also face limitations.

Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, expressed concern about the 40% surge in margin lending volume over the past 15 trading days. A 4 trillion won increase in credit within a month, without accompanying stock price rises, is interpreted as a negative signal. The rapid speed and steepness of the credit increase, in particular, can be seen as a warning sign of potential market risks.

Breakout trading refers to buying when a stock, after a rapid rise, forms a consolidation range and then strongly breaks through its previous high. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, explained, "It consolidated, right? But when it breaks through this high, that's breakout trading." When using this strategy, a stop-loss should be set at the bottom of the consolidation range for risk management. This strategy is distinct from dip buying, which involves buying when the stock temporarily pulls back.

With both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix currently within a trading range, Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, recommended a breakout trading strategy rather than averaging down when they fall. For example, he explained that the textbook method is to buy when SK Hynix strongly breaks through key resistance levels like 180,000 won. Yoo emphasized, "The textbook approach is to buy exactly when it breaks 180,000 won. It's not about buying when it pulls back, but about buying when it breaks 180,000 won, even if it's at a slightly higher price." In other words, a strategy targeting the breakout point when a clear uptrend begins, rather than when it's pulling back on a down candle, is effective.

It is expected that this Jackson Hole meeting will not significantly influence the direction of the stock market. While it's necessary to confirm the Fed's approach to inflation and whether it becomes more hawkish, the theme of the Jackson Hole meeting itself is not expected to cause drastic changes in the market. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, commented, "This Jackson Hole will likely be uninteresting. Because Kevin Warsh himself is not someone who likes to reveal things or give information in advance," anticipating no special remarks.

Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, predicted that the current index stagnation and stock-specific market would continue until the first or second week of September. A clear market direction is expected to solidify only after mid-September. He added that it's advisable to approach the semiconductor sector around the Micron earnings announcement, and a drop in the volatility index (VKOSPI) can be interpreted as a positive sign that the market is gradually normalizing.

The fact that the volatility index (VKOSPI) is falling even as the market is declining is interpreted as a positive sign. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, stated, "The fact that the volatility index is falling despite the market pulling back means the market is entering a normalization process." If the volatility index drops below 40, the likelihood of a sustained uptrend increases. Currently, the biggest concern is the concentration of individual credit volume in specific stocks.

The current index is consolidating within a 6,500 to 7,000 point range. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, predicted that if this range is broken upwards, the KOSPI index could quickly rise to 7,500 points. He said, "After consolidation, if a strong bullish scenario truly emerges, it can certainly go up to 7,500. So, if it breaks out, it will truly go to 7,500 quickly," expressing an expectation for a strong upward scenario rather than a decline.

The aftermath of the August decline has not fully dissipated for domestic investors, leading to dampened investor sentiment. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, analyzed, "In Korea, the impact of the previous decline in August has not been completely resolved. So, many people lack confidence." Expectations for leading semiconductor stocks are diverting capital from other sectors, and investor anxiety remains high.

Interest is growing in promising sectors related to the 'first U.S. investment' expected to be announced in early to mid-September. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, suggested a high probability of the shipbuilding industry being involved in this first U.S. investment, but also predicted that the nuclear power and energy sectors might have a better momentum advantage than shipbuilding. In particular, the shipbuilding industry has high expectations from a supply-demand perspective, and nuclear power and energy-related stocks are likely to garner more attention amid strengthening cooperation with the U.S.

For September's investment strategy, it was recommended to focus on stocks with charts like Samsung SDI, which show a rapid rise followed by consolidation. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, said, "You could consider a chart like Samsung SDI's as a good textbook example. It surged and then consolidated, so you should look for companies that are currently consolidating like this." He explained that because the index moves later than individual stocks, a strategy of preempting individual stocks is important. Targeting stocks like Doosan Enerbility, which have the potential to trend upward after consolidation, is recommended.

Chart analysis serves as an auxiliary indicator to optimize purchase timing and reduce impatience when the timing of a rise is uncertain. Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, explained, "Charts are an auxiliary indicator. If you want to shorten that timing, you use charts. You don't even need to look at industry aspects. You just need to look at macros and technical positions." This means it's more effective to prioritize macro-economic conditions and technical chart positions over industrial analysis.

Yoo Chang-hee, an expert, emphasized the significant importance of the AI power energy sector, noting that related themes have been continuously forming recently. He also predicted that Neo Cloud-related stocks, which he has consistently mentioned for the past month, will show a positive trend in September as well. This analysis suggests that these sectors have sustained momentum and warrant investor attention.