Foreigners increased their futures buying, but the spot market showed weakness due to scattered supply and demand. An analysis suggests that supply and demand imbalance had a greater impact than interest rate hikes.
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Foreign investors did not show an active presence in the domestic stock market but bought over 1.5 trillion won in the futures market. Expert Lee Kwon-hee predicted a high probability of the market trending upwards the next day, based on this. This indicates that foreign investors hold a positive view on the short-term market direction.
Supply and demand concentrated in the secondary battery and power equipment sectors related to rack systems inside data centers. Expert Kim Jang-yeol analyzed that factors such as China's regulations on data centers led to a concentration of supply and demand in secondary batteries and transformers. This is considered the first instance of supply and demand divergence this year, as alternative stocks other than large-cap semiconductor stocks emerged.
This divergence in supply and demand can lead to strength in specific sectors while limiting overall market index growth.
In the past, supply and demand were concentrated in large-cap semiconductor stocks, but now they are diversifying into various sectors, increasing market dynamism.
A counterargument was raised that the Bank of Korea's interest rate hike does not have a direct causal relationship with the decline in the domestic stock market index. Expert Lee Kwon-hee noted that it is rare for the domestic market to be affected by Korea's interest rate hikes alone. Instead, he analyzed that the synchronization between the flow of the U.S. Nasdaq 100 futures market and the domestic stock market had a greater impact.
The perspective is that supply and demand concentrated in specific sectors had a greater impact on the domestic stock market than interest rate hikes.
This suggests that external variables and supply and demand trends should be considered more important when judging the direction of the domestic stock market.
NVIDIA's stock price recorded a cumulative 5% drop over 8 days before the earnings announcement but rebounded afterward. Expert Kim Jang-yeol evaluated that the guidance was satisfactory and the conference call content was positive. He analyzed that it was a natural outcome for the stock price to recover the 5% it had previously lost.
This shows that the market once again confirmed NVIDIA's fundamentals and reacted positively.
In particular, the content presented during the conference call exceeded market expectations, contributing to the stock price recovery.
NVIDIA stated with confidence that its revenue growth rate for fiscal year 2028 would be 70%. This significantly exceeds the market's expectation of mid-40%. Expert Kim Jang-yeol conveyed that NVIDIA implied 70% growth was virtually the minimum.
This confidence raises expectations that NVIDIA will continue its high growth trajectory in the future.
NVIDIA mentioned the possibility of a slight drop in gross margin from 75%. Expert Kim Jang-yeol explained that even if the gross margin falls from 75% to 70%, it would not be an issue if the growth rate is 70% instead of 40%. This margin decline indicates increased memory purchasing costs, which could serve as a positive signal for memory manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and Hynix.
This shows NVIDIA's willingness to expand memory investment for high growth.
NVIDIA's semiconductor purchases surged more than 2.5 times quarter-over-quarter. Expert Kim Jang-yeol stated that a memory pre-purchase of approximately $279 billion was made. This suggests that NVIDIA is proactively securing memory based on strong confidence in future growth.
Such large-scale purchases are expected to have a positive impact on the overall memory market.
Foreign investors are maintaining a buying trend of 1.4 trillion won in the futures market, but are not showing serious buying intentions in the spot market. Expert Lee Kwon-hee analyzed that foreigners do not seem to want to actively drive up the market, and this stance could change at any time.
However, they appear to consider the overall market direction as upward.
It was determined that recent buying by financial investment institutions was due to program trading, not ETFs. Expert Lee Kwon-hee explained that it is program buying that comes in alongside futures.
This serves as an important factor in understanding the nature of institutional supply and demand.
The power equipment sector successfully rebounded at a critical juncture, raising possibilities for further gains. Expert Lee Kwon-hee cited the impact of NVIDIA's data center revenue expansion and the expected benefits from former President Trump's executive order restricting Chinese-made power equipment. Sanil Electric, in particular, is drawing attention due to expectations of expanding its general transformer business.
These factors are expected to combine to drive strength in the power equipment sector.
Gaon Cable's stock price surged on news that it completed on-site verification of ACF cables for AI data centers. Expert Lee Kwon-hee explained that the news of supplying cables to AI data centers positively impacted the stock price. Synergy with major shareholder LS Cable & System is also anticipated.
The stock price rebound, accompanied by significant trading volume, reflects market expectations.
Samsung SDI was able to secure an additional 27GW of production capacity by terminating its JV with GM and utilizing proceeds from the display division sale. This news positively impacted the stock price. However, the guest warned against new entries due to the short-term sharp increase.
Increased production capacity can be a long-term growth driver, but short-term stock price volatility should also be considered.
The BBU (Battery Backup Unit) market is very small compared to the ESS or electric vehicle markets. Expert Kim Jang-yeol assessed the BBU market as having a strong thematic nature. While Samsung SDI could benefit from the BBU market, caution is needed for short-term thematic approaches.
A cautious investment strategy, considering the actual market size, is required.
A strong Korean Won trend could emerge depending on whether the U.S. raises or freezes interest rates. A strong Won could negatively impact the performance of export companies such as semiconductors and shipbuilding. Expert Kim Jang-yeol explained that the current stock price correction is due to a 'lack of momentum,' and the stock prices are not rising because the timing of earnings rebound has not yet been confirmed. The market is closely watching U.S. interest rate policy and subsequent exchange rate changes.
The performance of export companies is highly dependent on exchange rate fluctuations, so the future direction of interest rate policy will be a crucial variable.
It is analyzed that stock price increases are difficult to achieve solely based on unconfirmed earnings expectations.
Korea Circuit announced lower-than-expected earnings. Expert Kim Jang-yeol analyzed that in terms of momentum, its socket proportion remains below 5%, which is lower than TLB (15-20%) or Simtek (approx. 10%), making it less attractive for investment. A significant downward revision of the target price could be a signal coinciding with foreign selling.
A low socket proportion raises concerns about weakened growth momentum.
Simtek decided to invest 270 billion won in expansion. Expert Kim Jang-yeol stated that as NVIDIA-led socket technology becomes the standard, customer diversification is expected. This is likely to positively impact companies like Simtek and TLB. Simtek plans to raise funds through external financing, such as convertible bonds (CBs), instead of a rights offering.
The expansion of socket technology is expected to be a new growth driver for Simtek.
Through customer diversification, stable sales growth is anticipated.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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