A combination of factors, including rising oil prices, increased AI investment costs, and slowing corporate earnings, are increasing market volatility.
The market is monitoring transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the speed of Saudi recovery, and whether oil-producing countries will utilize their idle production capacity.
If attacks continue, there is a possibility that the situation could shift to a phase of supply reduction.
Profitability is expected to decline due to difficulties in securing data center sites and worsening power contract conditions.
This is attributed to the low employment effect of data centers and the burden of electricity costs on residents. The situation is expected to vary depending on inter-state competition for attraction rather than a nationwide trend.
IonQ's upward revision of revenue forecasts largely reflects the impact of the SkyWater acquisition. The market evaluates organic growth rates differently from external expansion through acquisitions.
The actual contribution of acquired production facilities to development speed is expected to be an important variable for future stock prices.
What we see here is that the market values buying a company and adding its revenue differently from the core business accelerating on its own.
The company provided guidance of $5 billion in revenue and $3.10 in EPS.
If a strike materializes, there are concerns about a decline in guidance credibility.
A breakout above 29,625.50 allows for trend-following buying.
Maintaining long-term interest rates at 4.81% is a crucial variable; consider a short conversion if it falls below 29,489.70 and rates rise.
Earlier, I said to observe based only on the announcement schedule, but after checking the intraday flow, I will change my judgment to conditional at this point.
However, a significant portion of this growth is analyzed to stem from higher gasoline prices than last year.
Excluding gasoline and exchange rates, real growth was around 5.3%, leading Deutsche Bank to lower its target price from $1120 to $1091.
This could lead to rising interest rates, putting downward pressure on tech stock valuations.
However, the possibility of oil price declines cannot be ruled out if alternative shipping routes are secured and existing inventories are depleted.
Oracle's stock price surged to $170.70 during trading but relinquished most of its gains, closing at $161.16. This resulted from a combination of anticipation ahead of the September 10 earnings and concerns about increased capital expenditures.
Capital expenditures increased by 146.4% year-over-year to $2.95 trillion, and market concerns exist regarding the projected negative free cash flow and financing methods.
According to media estimates, a public S-1 filing could occur at the end of September, with an IPO possible after mid-October.
The earliest IPO is predicted for late October to November.
The South African authorities' investigation into Netflix's fees is not large enough to shake Netflix's overall profits, but regulatory variables could emerge in its pricing power. This is because Netflix's growth is based on the expectation that subscribers will be retained despite price increases.
Meanwhile, the disclosure of box office performance serves as a benchmark for calculating advertising revenue.
If it breaks through this point with high trading volume and doesn't fall back, there's a possibility it could open up to the 30,000 level.
Conversely, if it breaks the overnight low of 29,489.75 and trading continues below that, this rebound scenario should be discarded. This is a discussion for after confirming whether it breaks through.
Core CPI is projected to be 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year.
Even if the monthly headline strengthens from +0.1% to +0.4%, the annual rate remains at 3.4%, and the core maintains a monthly pace of +0.2%, 2.2%, resulting in an annual rate dropping from 2.5% to 2.4%.
Major institutions like BOA and CIBC also forecast similar figures.
Therefore, it's necessary to monitor the timing of groundbreaking and operation, along with potential dilution of existing shareholder equity based on funding methods.
Investment in factory construction can be a future growth engine, but currently acts as a cost burden.
The market has not yet accounted for stock dilution related to the acquisition and approval process issues.
This suggests that acquisition-related variables have not been sufficiently reflected in market expectations.
This is a crucial period for reflecting trends and managing inventory effectively.
It is necessary to check real growth rates against inflation rates.
Therefore, even with news of new partnerships, the market has become pragmatic about whether it warrants a higher price than the current stock.
This decline signifies not a downturn in performance, but rather that the time has come to prove growth through revenue.
This is because U.S. comparable store sales fell short of market expectations.
Growth excluding fuel and currency effects is around 5.6%, and it's important to confirm margin defense capabilities in Q4 earnings.
Lower-than-expected prices or delayed launches may only have a psychological impact rather than affecting earnings directly.
Initial supply shortages could negatively impact short-term sales but might drive long-term demand.
However, revolving credit card refinancing for prime customers could present a new opportunity.
If an increase in actual loan originations is confirmed in the second half, the wait-and-see attitude may subside.
Current free cash flow is in the negative $3.7 billion range, so data center investment costs and funding plans could significantly impact the stock price.
Despite maintaining a 'buy' rating and target price, concerns about funding methods are prompting caution among investors.
Thus, even if revenue surges, profit might not increase proportionally.
Shortages of advanced wafers and HBM packaging could also impact profitability.
The tanker attack signifies an escalation of physical conflict, and Iran's potential further responses could lead to broader conflict.
Therefore, the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz should be used as an indicator for judgment.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
Want the next article from 유사남 - 쉽게 배우는 미국 경제 TV?
When 유사남 - 쉽게 배우는 미국 경제 TV publishes, we'll write it up like the one you just read and email it to you.
유사남 - 쉽게 배우는 미국 경제 TV published 5 in the last 7 days.
Oil at $100, 10-year Yield at 4.8% Era Arrives유사남 - 쉽게 배우는 미국 경제 TVlast month · 48:54 · 4.8K views · Created 3 weeks ago
Oil Prices Breach $100, Market Tension Escalates유사남 - 쉽게 배우는 미국 경제 TVlast month · 6:23:00 · 5.1K views · Created 3 weeks ago
Soaring Treasury Yields Signal Complex U.S. Economic Crisis유사남 - 쉽게 배우는 미국 경제 TVlast month · 1:09:52 · 5.2K views · Created 3 weeks ago