Interest Rates, Oil Prices, and Semiconductor Market Trends and Outlook

While the possibility of an interest rate hike in October diminished, market interest rates actually rose, but expectations for AI industry growth pushed the Nasdaq to an all-time high. The possibility of an interest rate hike in October is slim, but a paradoxical situation is emerging where treasury bond yields are actually rising.

This acted as a factor that completely ruled out the possibility of an interest rate hike in October, but market interest rates surged, lowering the sensitivity of AI-related growth stocks.

Despite the reduced likelihood of an interest rate hike, treasury bond yields continued to rise.

As oil prices from the Middle East stabilize, news of Saudi Arabia's price cut for Asian supplies and an increase in Middle Eastern crude oil exports has been confirmed.

In particular, production in the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to 80% of pre-war levels, which positively impacts oil price stability.

If price stability is clearly confirmed in the future, long-term treasury bond yields are also highly likely to stabilize.

Unlike Samsung Electronics, concerns about a 944 billion won SK stock overhang emerged, increasing the burden of supply in the market. As a result, funds shifted to the semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (SoC) sector, leading to a surge in trading volume. Leeno Industrial saw a net buying of 90,000 shares, and substrate stocks also showed strength. It was pointed out that it remains to be seen how the market will interpret the 944 billion won SK overhang, even if the shares are not immediately released. Leeno Industrial showed a net buying of 90,000 shares, leading the strength in substrate stocks, and the market is taking a cautious stance on the future interpretation of the overhang, even if shares are not immediately released. As a net buying of 90,000 shares flowed into Leeno Industrial and substrate stocks showed strength, the market's attention is focused on closely monitoring the ripple effect of the future overhang. A net buying of 90,000 shares continued for Leeno Industrial, and substrate stocks showed strength.

In particular, Leeno Industrial recorded a net buying of 90,000 shares, and substrate-related stocks such as ISC and TSE also showed strength.

Satrec Initiative, with a market capitalization of 1 trillion won, also recorded a strong gain of 7.7%.

HVM surged 15%, Intelsat 10%, and Satrec Initiative, with a market capitalization of 1 trillion won, also recorded a 7.7% gain.

Samsung Electronics' third-quarter provisional earnings are scheduled to be announced on Thursday, October 8th, drawing significant market attention.

Recent exchange rate fluctuations and the reflection of performance bonuses have led to a slight downward adjustment in operating profit forecasts.

The market views achieving 110 trillion won in sales as a critical psychological benchmark, which is expected to influence future stock price movements.

In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the SoC sector. The memory semiconductor market boom is expected to materialize more in the first half of next year than in the fourth quarter of this year, and Samsung Electronics' strengthened shareholder return policy is expected to lead to value re-evaluation.

In the short term, the semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (SoC) sector is highly likely to receive market attention.

It was analyzed that if Samsung Electronics strengthens its shareholder return policy, there is room for re-evaluating the company's value.

Expectations that political uncertainties will ease after the US midterm elections, alleviating concerns about data center construction delays, remain a variable for memory company stock prices.

After the US midterm elections, political issues related to data center construction are expected to be resolved, alleviating concerns about construction delays.

TSMC's participation in production at Elon Musk's factory is being discussed in the initial stages, signaling an expansion of its foundry role. Korean front-end and back-end equipment and advanced packaging companies, including Hanmi Semiconductor, are expected to benefit from the supply chain, and TSMC's participation is evaluated to inevitably change the existing Intel-centric structure. In particular, advanced packaging-related stocks such as Hanmi Semiconductor are expected to be positively impacted by the expansion of the foundry supply chain.

If TSMC participates instead of Intel, domestic front-end and back-end equipment, as well as advanced packaging material companies, are expected to benefit.

In particular, advanced packaging-related stocks such as Hanmi Semiconductor were analyzed to receive positive effects.

The third quarter was analyzed as the point where external growth would accelerate and profit leverage would appear after preemptive investment.

The growth of Texon, a subsidiary that supplies core modules for semiconductor equipment, is also expected to drive Seojin System's performance improvement.

Seojin System is reorganizing its business around new ventures, expanding its supply of ESS, semiconductor equipment, and solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) modules.

It has emerged as a beneficiary of power shortages, particularly by being included in the Bloom Energy supply chain, and is still considered undervalued compared to other related companies.

With the resolution of the US plant operation delay issue, a full-fledged earnings turnaround is expected after the third quarter.

SpaceX's Starship successfully completed its 14th test flight, showing progress towards commercialization, and expectations for the 15th test flight are also rising.

Major investment institutions like Morgan Stanley are trending towards upward adjustments of target prices for aerospace-related companies.

SpaceX's direct suppliers like HVM and Spear, and aerospace value chain companies like SeAH Besteel Holdings, are gaining attention.

Investment should be narrowed to companies with actual supply relationships with SpaceX, including Intelsat, the global leader in low-earth orbit satellite communication antennas, as well as HVM, Sphere, and Kenko Aero Aerospace.

Intelsat, the global leader in low-earth orbit satellite communication antennas, is expected to benefit as interest in space internet grows.

HVM, Sphere, and Kenko Aero Aerospace were identified as key beneficiaries.

As there are currently no cooperative companies related to Agentic AI, a short-term thematic approach to the security sector is deemed valid.

It is necessary to respond primarily with leading stocks like AhnLab, and in the long term, attention should be paid to quantum security-related stocks.

In particular, Exgate stood out for its superior technology, attracting industry attention. Since ION and ITK have already completed global-level verification, Exgate is considered to have greater investment appeal among these companies. Exgate, in particular, as a key domestic company, holds a technological advantage, making it the most attractive element among related stocks.

In particular, Exgate was cited as a key domestic quantum security company, with its global evaluation history and technological superiority being attractive factors.

Game stocks are expected to show abundant new game momentum starting from the fourth quarter, and NCSoft's stock rebound is also analyzed to be due to expectations for new games.

While the technical trend is attempting a turnaround in the short term, an opinion was presented that a cautious approach is needed for long-term investments using new funds.

The sale method appears to be an effort to minimize market impact, with 544 billion won targeting strategic investors and the remainder combining with a stock profit swap.

This large-scale stake sale is expected to cause short-term stock price volatility, and coupled with concerns about the memory semiconductor industry downturn, it was deemed premature for new entry.