Oil Prices Breach $100, Inflation Warning Sounds

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Dubai oil also saw price increases. In particular, geopolitical tensions escalated due to news of an Iranian oil tanker being sunk, further fueling oil price hikes.

U.S. authorities showed a strong commitment to market stabilization through verbal intervention alongside an expanded buyback policy.

After an initial period of interest rate stability, rates began to rise again. Some market participants expressed disappointment with the smaller-than-expected buyback size.

The U.S. Treasury's strong statements recalled former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's 'bazooka' analogy. However, the actual market impact was minimal compared to the intensity of the words. The Treasury's will to defend the market did not significantly impress the market, raising questions about its effectiveness.

This indicates a decline in advanced economy bond prices (rising interest rates). Caution is also spreading within the Japanese bond market.

However, some analyses suggest that the current high-interest rate levels might present a better situation for long-term investors compared to the 2001-2002 period. Investors should closely monitor the volatility in the bond market.

The mass supply of products from low-wage production bases exacerbated the polarization between asset inflation and real deflation. A continuous decline in interest rates was observed after this period.

The weakening competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles in major countries like Germany is leading to a manufacturing crisis. Advanced economies such as the U.S., which have high outsourcing dependency, have revealed a lack of domestic production bases. This necessitates massive capital investment for re-industrialization and AI data center construction, acting as upward pressure on interest rates.

Concerns are mounting that even if temporary declines in price indicators appear, the market will struggle to adapt if the upward trend in oil prices persists. If oil prices continue to soar through late September, CPI and PPI are projected to rise without fail.

Just as the weather suddenly turned cold, interest rates spiked, leaving the market with insufficient responsiveness. A lack of adaptability to changes in the external environment can lead to a contraction in investment sentiment.

In particular, SK Hynix ADR rose 7%, achieving a high price. This is analyzed as Meta's AI strategy playing a significant role.

Meta is implementing a policy of providing up to 100 million tokens per user for free. The potential for utilizing an intuitive UI and vast distribution network is anticipated.

The biggest news this month was Anthropic's announcement of an initial public offering (IPO). As competition in the AI market accelerated following Anthropic's IPO announcement, OpenAI also unveiled its GPT-6 agent AI. This could act as a significant variable in changing the landscape of the AI market.

The strategy seems to be to increase activity within the platform by encouraging user engagement and thereby generating revenue by integrating AI into existing advertising lines.

In the commodity market, copper prices, a representative symbol, continue to rise. In contrast, lithium showed a contrasting trend with falling prices due to news of oversupply. This demonstrates that market trends vary significantly depending on the supply and demand situation of each commodity.

The National Pension Service and others announced they would halt hedging around 1,350 won. This is interpreted as a signal to the market that Korean authorities do not want a further strong appreciation of the won after its significant strengthening.

If the yen further strengthens, the won is likely to follow. Whether the JPY/USD exchange rate breaks 150 yen and shows further strength depends on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. It is predicted that sustained yen strength would only be possible if the Bank of Japan suggests further rate hikes beyond a single increase. Japan is expected to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy.