October: What's the Plan for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Rebound?

The market consolidates energy, digesting the volume from rapid increases and awaiting the inflow of new buying power.

Former President Trump's recent remarks affected the market, as he mentioned the war could end after the election. This dampened expectations for lower oil prices and contributed to sustained inflationary pressure.

This downside rigidity suggests, based on empirical observation, that the market is digesting negative news and testing its upper limits. The fact that stock prices do not fall easily indicates a high probability of future increases.

The US market is currently maintaining a strong trend, acting as a defense against declines in the domestic stock market. As a result, the domestic index is firmly holding its bottom at the 6,400 level.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have shown very dull stock price movements, separate from the overall index. The situation of minimal or almost no stock price rebound compared to their earnings has been prolonged for these individual stocks.

This is interpreted as a temporary market instability factor, similar to the past DeepCreek issue.

The key clue to the AI corporate responsibility argument came from the US Secretary of Commerce's testimony to Congress. The government announced it would impose full responsibility for future security and national security issues on AI companies, and would not grant them immunity clauses. This suggests there may have been prior discussions between the government and the private sector.

During these discussions, an argument was made that the government needs to proactively create regulatory and control systems to provide guidelines. Companies, aware of potential government regulation, are expected to respond with their own declarative actions.

Companies operate under long-term plans, making it difficult to drastically reduce AI investment based solely on isolated remarks. In the AI industry, securing a technological first-mover advantage and an economic moat is crucial. Without technological leadership, it is difficult to survive in competition.

The demand for chips and hardware due to AI commercialization is inevitable, so fundamental industry growth is expected to continue despite any AI-related noise.

If your portfolio has a high concentration of leading stocks like Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix, maintain that, but secure 30% in cash, excluding rotational sectors such as power infrastructure, robotics, and nuclear power. This is a trading strategy to prepare for uncertainties that may arise from an interest rate hike.

Furthermore, a logic has formed that an interest rate hike will lead to a decrease in long-term bond yields, contributing to market stabilization.

Considering the recent trend where the US S&P index rose for one day and then consistently fell over the past seven days, market concerns about an interest rate hike appear to be largely reflected in stock prices.

If Powell mentions the possibility of hyperinflation and adopts a hawkish stance, the market is likely to fall. This could lead to excessive caution, like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. Conversely, if he mentions the possibility of disinflation through productivity improvements, the market is expected to cheer.

Currently, there is a strong sentiment in the bond market betting on price declines, suggesting the possibility of an overshoot. The discrepancy between the US benchmark interest rate and bond yields is widening. After the interest rate decision, bond yields are expected to stabilize downwards.