Iran to Consider South Korea a Belligerent if It Deploys

South Korea is currently discussing a deployment of 100-150 personnel and is being pressured by the US to decide on deployment and finalize the size of its forces and mission by November.

A plan to deploy non-combat forces, including a logistics support vessel, an explosive ordnance disposal unit, and maritime patrol aircraft, is being seriously considered. The US reportedly hopes for South Korea's deployment to the Strait of Hormuz by November.

The armistice memorandum concluded in mid-June with Pakistan's mediation revealed its limitations as a truce without a clear victor. Not a single one of the 14 agreed items was kept, effectively invalidating the agreement.

Both the US and Iran focused on rearming during the truce. This resulted in peace efforts being rendered meaningless as both sides clung to their own victory.

The conflict between the US and Iran began in February with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Since late August, retaliatory attacks have been ongoing.

The US demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear program, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and submit economically. In response, Iran maintains its stance that it cannot concede its nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is using a strategy of asymmetric military power to resist the overwhelming military might of the US.

The US is exerting real physical action and pressure to collapse the Iranian economy. The core of this is economic damage through the blockade of Kharg Island.

Kharg Island is a crucial oil terminal that handles 80-90% of Iran's crude oil exports. The US believes that if it is blockaded or occupied, the Iranian economy would effectively be paralyzed. Iran has adopted a proportional retaliation policy of eliminating three US ships for every one Iranian ship attacked.

Along with this, it is demanding that its allies choose between the US and Iran.

Such sanctions are analyzed to cause an increase in international oil prices, adding to the economic burden within the US, potentially affecting consumer prices and the midterm elections.

This is to create a favorable environment for the midterm elections while continuously pressuring Iran.

The US is employing a strategy to minimize potential economic side effects from the conflict with Iran.

Accordingly, South Korea is being pressured to finalize its deployment decision, as well as the forces and mission scope, by November.

A joint fact-finding mission comprising the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff is reportedly dispatched to assess the local situation.

This is a low-key approach that avoids direct involvement in the core of the war.

Domestically, there is strong public opposition to deployment, and parliamentary approval is also uncertain. Even with a minimum deployment of forces, the political burden is expected to be considerable.

At the time, the US criticized South Korea for not wanting to shed blood.

There are concerns that if non-combat troops are deployed this time, pressure for combat troop deployment will intensify.

Cracks are appearing within Iran due to the economic impact of the ongoing war. Former President Hassan Rouhani proposed that if the people accept it, the war should continue, and if not, it should end through a national referendum.

This shows that the US economic pressure is affecting the real lives of the Iranian people, intensifying internal conflict.

On the other hand, hardliners, including the Revolutionary Guard, immediately object and insist on continuing military activities. The deepening economic hardship is acting as pressure, increasing the instability of the Iranian government.

Since August, the US has warned that it will implement secondary boycotts against various countries, including China, that have traded with Iran, exerting secondary sanctions pressure. This is effectively an attempt to cut off Iran's economic alliances.

Iran's finance minister announced emergency financial loans to prevent 600,000 job losses. The steel and petrochemical industries are being hit, and economic hardship is exacerbated by restrictions on oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns are also raised about a recurrence of anti-government protests due to past economic problems.

Former President Trump's statements on the timing of ending the war are inconsistent and run counter to actual force deployments. According to a WSJ report, close aides like Vice President Pence discuss the possibility of the war continuing until 2029.

The deployment period for US air defense units to Arab countries has been extended from 9 to 12 months, and the 82nd Airborne Division is mentioned as potentially remaining on the Arabian Peninsula until next year. Currently, 19 warships and 50,000 troops are deployed in the Middle East.

There are roughly three scenarios for the end of the Middle East war. The first is a unilateral declaration of an end to the war by the US after the midterm elections, the second is a war of attrition due to extended deployment until 2029 and sustained pressure, and the third is a stalemate that does not escalate into an all-out war.

The current scenario involves attacking and pressuring Iran with economic sanctions until 2029 through extended deployment and rotational deployment of air force fighter squadrons in Arabia. There is also a possibility that the Iranian navy's attacks on oil tankers, met with two or three times the retaliation, could continue for dozens of months. In conclusion, the likelihood of the war ending soon seems low.

South Korea is in a situation where it is difficult to calculate the gains and losses of deployment. Hasty deployment carries the risk of diminished returns by participating at the end of the war or getting bogged down in a prolonged conflict. Both sides' arguments are compelling, requiring a cautious choice.

Therefore, persuading the US of the need for a sufficient preparation period rather than immediate deployment seems to be a realistic diplomatic response.