SK Hynix Plunges Amid Foreign, Institutional Selling

SK Hynix's stock price dropped 5.4%, threatening the 1.6 million won level, while foreign and institutional investors continued their large-scale selling, putting downward pressure on the overall market. Expert Yoo Chang-hee explained the current situation: "Nothing matters. Hynix is falling further in after-hours trading. It closed at 1.61 million won in regular trading today, and in after-hours, it's barely holding at 1.6 million won. Foreigners and institutions have continuously dumped shares, pushing it down." Only individual investors and other corporations showed a buying advantage, reflecting the market's instability.

Market participants are more sensitive to the current correction phase due to the trauma of July's sharp decline. Expert Yoo Chang-hee commented, "It's not a repeat of the July market, but people were hit so hard once. Because of that severe stress, even a slight tremor causes a lot of stress," analyzing that psychological turmoil is increasing even with short-term market fluctuations.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee assessed the likelihood of the KOSPI falling below 6,000 as low, predicting that most negative factors would dissipate if the market holds up well until next week. He stated, "I believe we just need to get through next week. I judge that it will not break 6,000, and after next week, most of the negative factors are likely to be resolved." A 9% additional decline in the index would be required for KOSPI to fall below 6,000, a judgment based on the low probability of continuous sharp declines in the short term.

Next week's FOMC meeting is expected to be a critical turning point for a market rebound. Expert Yoo Chang-hee said, "The D-day is the FOMC meeting the week after next. The market has been fluctuating since Jackson Hole, but I think the outline will become clear by next week. I see the market improving further from mid-September onwards." There is a possibility that the market will front-run changes in interest rate hike probabilities, and after mid-September, the stock market is expected to gradually normalize and rebound. The current market uncertainty is likely to be resolved to some extent through the FOMC meeting, making this a time for investors to focus on key economic indicators and policy announcements. The results of this meeting are anticipated to provide important clues determining the market's long-term direction.

As treasury yields and oil prices rise again, negative factors that were thought to be resolved are returning to serious levels. Expert Yoo Chang-hee explained, "Because treasury yields and oil prices are reflecting negative factors that we thought were completely resolved and could be ignored, they are now returning to serious levels." This has accumulated fatigue and neurosis among market participants, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

A response to interest rate volatility is needed as treasury buybacks are scheduled around September 10th. Expert Yoo Chang-hee advised, "Interest rates might see buybacks around September 10th next week. We need to see how the market intervenes then," urging vigilance on market intervention. Furthermore, the possibility of financial deregulation by Bascent and Warsh is a notable variable. These measures could be announced after the FOMC meeting or in October. Such policy moves are expected to significantly influence market liquidity and investor sentiment.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee recommended selling at least 10-15% of stock holdings as a standard risk management practice during market instability. He emphasized, "If you are anxious and have a large stock weighting, you can sell at least 10 to 15%. That's the textbook play." This judgment is based on technical bearish signals such as foreign investors' simultaneous large-scale selling in spot and futures markets and a close at the lowest price.

Foreign investors recorded a massive sell-off of 2.4 trillion won in KOSPI and 2.1 trillion won in the futures market, exerting strong downward pressure on the market. Expert Yoo Chang-hee stated, "Foreign investors sold 2.4 trillion won. More selling occurred today alone than in the past three days combined." This is interpreted as a shift from a three-day consecutive net selling trend and a move to strengthen downward positions through the purchase of 12 billion won in put options. Such changes in foreign investor supply could intensify short-term market weakness.

While index-level risk management is necessary, individual stock movements are differentiating. Expert Yoo Chang-hee mentioned, "That's the standard, and it varies by stock. For example, even though bank stocks fell today, Shinhan Financial Group hit a new high." This illustrates the phenomenon where certain stocks, such as bank stocks, show independent strength by reaching new highs despite market weakness.

The priority for selling should differ depending on which stocks one holds. Expert Yoo Chang-hee explained, "Stocks like Hyundai Motor. So, depending on what stock you have, whether you run first, or confirm and run, or hold on longer." It is advisable to prioritize selling stocks like Hyundai Motor or Samsung Heavy Industries that have fallen to their lows, while for stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which are trading sideways in a box range, one should observe the situation and respond. Conversely, for stocks that rise and then trade sideways, a strategy of holding rather than selling hastily might be advantageous.

Trading strategies were proposed by dividing stocks into three patterns. Expert Yoo Chang-hee emphasized, "The conclusion, after all this time, is that for stocks like Hyundai Motor that have already fallen, you should sell them first. For stocks like Samsung SDI, it's correct to confirm and then sell. If it's pattern 1, sell first; for patterns 2 and 3, it's right to wait a bit before selling." Firstly, stocks that have already fallen, like Hyundai Motor, should be sold first. Secondly, for stocks trading sideways in a box range, like Samsung SDI, it's better to confirm and then sell or wait and respond. Thirdly, for stocks that rise and then trade sideways, holding rather than a hasty sale might be advantageous while observing market conditions. It's crucial to be wary of excessive fear regarding a market downturn and to make rational judgments.

Frequent trading incurs unnecessary fees and offers minimal improvement in average cost. Expert Yoo Chang-hee advised, "If you buy and sell haphazardly, you only pay commissions, and it doesn't even lower your average cost. So, for such stocks, it's still better to just wait." Premature trading also risks missing re-entry opportunities during a rebound, so for certain stocks, patience and holding might be more advantageous.

Amid recent irregular market movements, controversy has arisen over the validity of traditional investment techniques. Anchor Park Ga-young stated, "Is there a textbook play in the recent stock market? I don't think so. And among the things happening, common sense, textbook rules, and the traditional methods we've always known are all breaking down in every situation," arguing that the current market cannot be explained by past formulas. However, some experts countered by interpreting AI and Samsung Electronics' performance as a trend of change, not an anomaly, suggesting that traditional methodologies can evolve into new norms with the times. This raises an important question about what perspective investors should adopt in a rapidly changing market environment. The ability to flexibly embrace market conditions and analyze new data and changes is becoming increasingly important.