KOSPI Sees Large Foreign Sell-off, Yet Other Sectors Show Strength... Stock-picking Market Begins with Reduced Semiconductor Reliance

Foreign investors continued a large-scale sell-off in the KOSPI market, amounting to 3.4 trillion won. This acted as a downward pressure factor across the overall market. In contrast, the KOSDAQ market saw net foreign buying, showing a contrasting trend.

The provisional agreement on wage and collective bargaining at SK Hynix was rejected, sparking labor-management conflict over the proportion of cash payments. This raised concerns that expectations for shareholder returns could be damaged, leading to a fall in stock price. However, as the stock fell significantly the previous day, there is still room for renegotiation and a technical rebound due to the excessive decline.

Despite foreign investors shifting from futures buying to selling, institutional investors injected buying power primarily into the KOSPI market, defending the market. This indicates that simultaneous buying by institutions and individuals helped prevent further market decline, even as foreign spot selling continued.

Despite the sluggish performance of large-cap semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, other sectors showed strong momentum, proving that market investor sentiment remains alive. This suggests that investment is diversifying beyond specific large-cap stocks, signaling the start of a stock-picking market. The trend of portfolio diversification in the market is becoming clear.

Nuclear power related stocks like BH are expected to see their annual performance grow rapidly, more than tripling from 2024 to 2025. However, their stock prices, along with other nuclear power related stocks like Doosan Enerbility, have shown an excessive tendency to fall. Experts point out that considering this earning power, a sideways movement in the stock price would be more reasonable, evaluating the current decline as unjustified.

Discussions are actively underway in the United States for the construction of 10 large nuclear power plants, which is a major factor driving the stock price increases of domestic nuclear power related companies. In particular, there is a growing recognition that government financial support and subsidy policies are essential for the expansion of nuclear power in the US market. Additionally, the opinion that combining data centers and nuclear power plants is the most efficient combination is raising related expectations.

Construction stocks are categorized by theme. GS E&C is classified as a key stock related to domestic AI data center construction. Hyundai E&C and Daewoo E&C, on the other hand, are considered nuclear power related stocks, with Hyundai E&C playing a leading role and Daewoo E&C following. DL E&C is indirectly linked to the nuclear power theme due to its stake in TerraPower.

Samsung Electronics' investment in factory expansion has a positive impact on semiconductor equipment manufacturers but could be neutral for Samsung Electronics' own stock. While aggressive investment is generally good, unexpected investments can lead to cost burdens. In particular, many investments are planned for 2027 to 2030 and beyond, limiting short-term stock price impact. Meanwhile, material, component, and equipment (SooBujang) companies may react more sensitively to news of such investment expansion.

A trend where the 5-day moving average crosses above the 2-day moving average is appearing in the charts of nuclear power related stocks, indicating a technical rebound signal. If a long bullish candle appears today and a 2-3% correction occurs tomorrow, the closing period could be a buying opportunity. A scenario where the stock temporarily falls during the day and then rises again towards the 120-day moving average is also anticipated. The importance of diversifying investment portfolios is also emphasized.

Hyundai Mobis plays a pivotal role in discussions regarding Hyundai Motor Group's governance restructuring. Some even suggest the necessity of a merger with Hyundai Glovis, focusing attention on the future direction of the group's governance changes.

Kia announced SDV (Software Defined Vehicle) as its core strategy at Investor Day. The proportion related to robots, which some had expected, was minimal, indicating that Kia's future strategy is concentrated on software-based vehicle technology.

As the U.S. moves to exclude China from its supply chains, expectations are rising that domestic robot component companies will benefit. In particular, the need to re-evaluate the value of actuator specialized companies like Robotis is being raised. This suggests that changes in the supply chain, similar to the secondary battery industry, could have a positive impact on domestic companies.

China's Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) is analyzed to have a greater potential to disrupt the NAND market than Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in the DRAM market. This is because NAND flash has relatively lower technological barriers than DRAM, and the market share of global leading companies is more dispersed in the NAND market. Concerns are growing about the impact of YMTC's technological advancements on the market.

NAND flash has a relatively higher proportion of consumer-oriented products, such as mobile phones and PCs, compared to DRAM. Due to this characteristic, some believe that the NAND market can act as a buffer, stopping its decline before DRAM when semiconductor prices fall. However, there is also a risk that if the technological gap is not significant, the price decline could be greater.

China's Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) has reportedly entered the top three in the NAND market with a share of approximately 13-14%. YMTC is rapidly expanding its market share, showing strengths in NAND technology migration and stacking technology. This technological capability and market share expansion are expected to have a significant impact on the global NAND market. In particular, intensified technological competition could lead to price competition.

In the past, Nvidia's stock price consistently rose before earnings announcements and then fell afterwards. Over the past three years, 8 out of 10 times, the stock tended to rise by 3% to 7% before earnings reports. However, this time, the stock showed an unusual pattern of falling for 7 consecutive days leading up to the earnings release. Considering that in the past, despite better-than-expected earnings, the stock almost always fell, this consecutive decline is interpreted as reflecting new investor expectations and concerns.