NVIDIA's 7-Day Losing Streak: Semiconductor Market Instability and Investment Strategy

Robotics and nuclear power related stocks showed strength early in the session. This is interpreted as issues from yesterday afternoon affecting nuclear power stocks, and expectations for Hyundai Motor's Investor Day being reflected in robotics stocks. The market is currently characterized by widespread caution ahead of major events such as NVIDIA's earnings announcement, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and the Jackson Hole Meeting.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell by about 2-3% in pre-market trading. This was due to the significant decline in US tech stocks yesterday, making an early session fall inevitable. However, attention is on whether they will recover their losses in the afternoon, showing a pattern of weakness in the morning and strength in the afternoon.

Profit-taking is emerging in major KOSDAQ stocks that showed strength yesterday. Alteogen, strong yesterday, is currently down about 2%. Ecobro and Ecobro BM, which surged 6% and 10% yesterday respectively, are now down about 2% as some profits are realized. As foreign and institutional net buying in KOSDAQ reached 400 billion KRW, the continuity of this supply and demand is crucial.

The current market environment makes it difficult for foreign or institutional investors to aggressively engage in net buying, given the various major events mentioned earlier. With high caution, it is necessary to maintain investment expectations but observe cautiously. Rather than hasty chase buying, it is wiser to wait for opportunities by observing market trends.

Hyundai Motor is up about 3% in after-hours trading, but with limited capital inflow in the current market, its upside may be restricted. Personally, I believe it's necessary to keep an eye on stocks that move similarly to Hyundai Motor or LG Electronics. Given the recent sector rotation in the KOSDAQ market, even if robotics stocks surge early, it's more effective to target pullbacks rather than chase buying.

Stocks in the pharmaceutical/biotech and secondary battery sectors can present good buying opportunities if they 'pull back nicely.' 'Pulling back nicely' means the stock isn't dropping sharply, but rather gradually accumulating energy. When the stock hesitates at the bottom, deciding whether to rise, that's considered an opportune time to buy.

Robotis is considered promising as a leading robotics stock. It's important to focus on companies with proven technological capabilities rather than just stock volatility. Robotis demonstrated its technological prowess by achieving an earnings surprise in the second quarter with actuator sales. As this company transitions from an automotive component manufacturer to a robotics specialist, a focused strategy as a robotics component company, rather than a finished vehicle company, is needed.

This year marks the first year of full-scale robot mass production, with China aiming for 40,000 units annually. In contrast, Tesla Optimus's production target is relatively smaller, at 5,000 to 10,000 units. As global robot mass production competition accelerates, Korea also needs to respond actively to this market.

Humanoid robots are emerging as the biggest players in the robot market. However, there's a significant difference in perception regarding the price of home robots. Views diverge between those who consider 150 million KRW a reasonable price and those who think around 10 million KRW. Discussion is needed on an appropriate price considering durability and the cost of replacing household labor.

The US Treasury announced it would conduct bond buybacks using TGA balances instead of issuing short-term debt. The initially expected method of issuing short-term debt to repay long-term loans could have led to a rise in long-term interest rates, but the use of TGA balances was positively received by the market. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is battling in the 4.6-4.7% range.

The announcement of economic sanctions on Iran lacked specific details, rendering it largely ineffective. This led to a more than 2% drop in oil prices, easing some market anxiety. The absence of concrete sanction measures seems to have provided relief to the market.

NVIDIA showed an unusual trend, falling for 7 consecutive trading days. Typically, stock prices tend to rise in anticipation before earnings announcements, but this reflection has not occurred this time. This is interpreted as an unusual phenomenon reflecting market caution and the sustained decline of NVIDIA.

The current strength in Bitcoin is largely due to a short squeeze and other supply and demand factors. As these supply and demand factors are expected to largely conclude this week, it is important to carefully monitor subsequent market trends. The possibility of increased market volatility after these factors dissipate cannot be ruled out.

As the US stock market declined significantly, led by semiconductors, the domestic stock market, which has many semiconductor large-cap stocks, also experienced a downturn. However, after ADR (American Depositary Receipt) listings in the US, the domestic semiconductor sector has tended to precede the US market. Therefore, the possibility of a rebound in the domestic semiconductor market after NVIDIA's earnings announcement is also drawing attention.

The KOSPI index is at a critical juncture where it needs to find support around its previous low of 6,450. While a close with a positive candle today might be limited, holding around the 6,450 level would be considered relatively positive. Maintaining this support line will be a crucial factor in determining the short-term market trend.

A positive outlook on the KOSDAQ market remains valid. While it's true that volatility is higher compared to KOSPI companies, recent rotation trends show continuous investment opportunities across various sectors such as pharmaceutical/biotech, secondary batteries, robotics, and semiconductor materials/parts/equipment. Therefore, meticulous analysis of individual KOSDAQ stocks and sector trends is necessary.

Hyundai Motor's Investor Day (to be held tomorrow afternoon) could sustain expectations for robotics stocks until tomorrow morning, but caution is advised against profit-taking selling immediately after the event. At this event, it's necessary to check for mentions of Boston Dynamics' IPO and specific supply chain details related to robots. However, as Hyundai Motor usually takes a conservative stance, it might be difficult to expect major positive news.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics remains a solid company. Its earnings are not deteriorating and are expected to remain strong, and many believe MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) prices are at the beginning of an upward cycle. However, it is currently experiencing a simultaneous decline due to the sluggish trend of large-cap semiconductor stocks. Ultimately, for Samsung Electro-Mechanics' stock price to show a positive trend, 'big brothers' like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix need to maintain good support in the market.