Nvidia Earnings, PCE Data to Divide Stock Market

Manager Choi Won-beom emphasized the importance of paying attention to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, to be released tonight at 9:30 PM, and Nvidia's earnings announcement and conference call, scheduled for early tomorrow morning. He explained that these announcements will determine the overall market trend.

He added that market attention is particularly focused on Nvidia's next-generation chip strategy and AI-related investment direction, which will dictate market movements.

Expectations of an Iran ceasefire have led to international oil prices stabilizing, falling to the $70 range. This could positively impact manufacturing stability and foreign investor demand.

The possibility of a market surge if an end to the wars in Ukraine and Iran materializes has also been raised. The resolution of geopolitical risks in the Middle East is considered an essential factor for the global economy.

A summit between President Xi Jinping and President Trump is anticipated to take place in Washington on September 24. Tariffs, AI regulations, and defense are expected to be key agenda items.

The economic ties between China and Iran could act as a critical variable in U.S.-China negotiations, leading to persistent policy uncertainty.

The U.S. government is attempting to stabilize long-term interest rates through bond purchases and other means, striving to minimize market volatility. Stable oil prices could lead to global liquidity provision.

A perception that the worst market scenario has been avoided is spreading, and these policy efforts are expected to contribute to market stability.

Ahead of the midterm elections, a shift in foreign policy centered around Trump is anticipated. Manager Choi Won-beom stated that the likelihood of Trump seeking a market settlement has increased.

Policies are expected to be laid out in August, with full implementation beginning in September. Efforts to solidify the foundation through tariff policies and secure votes are anticipated.

Manager Choi Won-beom believes that the Iran issue has concluded, stating that there are signs that Iran's six-month standoff period has ended.

The possibility of the U.S. government offering incentives (rewards) to Iran has been raised, and the resolution of these geopolitical risks is expected to have a positive impact on the market.

With U.S. Treasury yields confirmed to have peaked, the perception is spreading that a major obstacle to the market has been removed. Market attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting.

Manager Choi Won-beom assessed that the overall macroeconomic environment is becoming more favorable for the stock market's upside. This is expected to act as upward pressure on stock prices, alongside improved investment sentiment.

Manager Choi Won-beom assessed that Samsung Electronics is currently trading within a box range of 250,000 to 300,000 won. He advised preparing for aggressive buying if Samsung Electronics breaks below 230,000 won.

He added that the influence of short-term leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market is diminishing, which could lead to opportunities to buy large-cap stocks.

Advice was given that if Hynix breaks above 1.8 million won and Samsung Electronics breaks above 300,000 won, a strategy of holding rather than selling these stocks is necessary. These price points are considered key resistance levels.

Breaking these resistance levels is a strong bullish signal, indicating significant further upside potential. Therefore, Manager Choi Won-beom emphasized holding for the long term instead of selling upon a breakout.

Manager Choi Won-beom believes it's unlikely for Samsung Electronics to fall below 230,000 won and Hynix below 1.4 million won. However, he stressed that if they do, it would be a 'sweet' buying opportunity.

He explained that there are no downside factors other than macroeconomic issues, making it an opportunity to maximize profits through new purchases. This reiterates the importance of buying at the bottom.

Manager Choi Won-beom stated that Daewoo E&C and G2GBio were sold for profit in the VIP room. Daewoo E&C was approached from a nuclear power perspective and construction momentum, while G2GBio yielded short-term trading profits.

He emphasized that in the August market, short-term profit realization strategies and new purchases are more advantageous than long-term holding. He added that a 10% profit was made on Daewoo E&C.

The recent sharp decline in Hyundai Motor Group stocks appears to reflect market disappointment over shareholder return policies (such as treasury stock cancellation). The possibility of a 'shakeout' for individual investors across the group, including Hyundai AutoEver and Hyundai Mobis, has also been raised.

In this situation, Manager Choi Won-beom advised that instead of selling now, it is necessary to hold as absolute time is needed for the stock prices to recover.

Manager Choi Won-beom explained that Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting, scheduled for the 28th, will be a crucial variable determining the biotech sector's direction in September. He advised that the decision to reduce biotech exposure or continue holding should be made based on his wording.

He added that formulating a strategy after the Jackson Hole meeting is important, given that Hanmi Pharmaceutical's recent successful technology transfer is positively influencing the entire biotech sector.

Manager Choi Won-beom mentioned that Hanmi Pharmaceutical is the closest if one is looking for a leader in the biotech sector. Hanmi Pharmaceutical, as a KOSPI 200 stock, has the advantage of high supply and demand stability.

He explained that formulating a response strategy for the entire biotech sector based on Hanmi Pharmaceutical's stock movement is effective. This means it can serve as a benchmark for gauging the sector's direction as a large-cap stock.

Manager Choi Won-beom stressed that the top priority is to clear out 'old' loss-making stocks. The recent market is characterized by very rapid sector rotation.

He explained that to cope with such a fast-moving market, a concentrated strategy of focusing on 1-2 stocks per day for trading is necessary. He advised seeking new opportunities rather than being tied up in existing loss-making stocks.

In a rotational market, rather than picking a specific sector, one should focus on the possibility that a sector showing strength for 2-3 days might take a break on the 4th trading day. Manager Choi Won-beom explained that the resting sector is likely to take the next baton.

Using Shinseong Delta Tech as an example, he suggested a rotational strategy of anticipating fund movement to the next sector after a particular sector shows strength.