BlackRock Overweighting: Is It Time to Buy Korean Stocks?

The market has already accepted the interest rate hike as a fait accompli, and attention is focused on whether it will provide clues about the future intensity of tightening.

Market reactions are expected to vary significantly depending on whether Chairman Powell's remarks are dovish or hawkish. The analysis suggests that the message regarding U.S. policy direction is more important than the interest rate decision itself.

As former President Trump expressed his willingness for dialogue, including ending the war, market anxiety has somewhat eased.

Key figures such as Besant also made reassuring statements regarding the rise in long-term bond yields. Analysis suggests that their remarks are acting as a psychological safety net for investors, defending against market declines.

This serves as a key driving force supporting the mid-to-long-term growth of the AI industry.

Recent arguments for an AI slowdown are considered temporary market fluctuations. Fundamental AI technology advancements and increasing data processing volumes are expected to continuously drive HBM demand.

Cloud service providers and semiconductor manufacturers continue to invest heavily in expanding HBM production capacity. The expansion of the AI ecosystem can be interpreted as a signal of structural growth in the HBM market.

In Syria and Guatemala, protests and road blockades have occurred due to soaring fuel prices, and in Bangladesh, power outages have disrupted operations at garment factories.

This poses a direct threat to global supply chains and further exacerbates inflationary pressures. Governments worldwide are caught in a dilemma between fiscal burden and high interest rates, struggling to devise effective countermeasures.

The persistence of high oil prices is likely to slow economic growth in developing countries and heighten social discontent.

This diversification of production bases provides new opportunities for semiconductor materials, components, and equipment (SooBuJang) companies.

Approximately 1,300 units of Korean semiconductor equipment are confirmed to be entering Vietnam. This is expected to have a positive impact on the export expansion and technological strengthening of domestic SooBuJang companies.

This is attributed to the fact that the 12-month forward estimates have not changed significantly.

Most semiconductor equipment stock prices have shown sideways movement within a range since the last upward cycle. Without significant upward revision of earnings estimates, the current valuation level is still considered expensive.

Foreigners made net futures purchases for the first time since the simultaneous expiration of futures and options. Although the actual purchase amount is not large, it is significant in that they are no longer continuously selling.

This can be interpreted as a signal of a possible change in foreign investors' attitudes towards the market. Further observation is needed to determine if it will lead to a full-scale buying trend.

A cautious approach is required for investments in optical communication theme stocks that have recently gained attention. Particular caution is needed for companies with large market capitalization but actual losses.

Expert Lee Kwon-hee recommended selective investment, focusing on companies with solid performance. He emphasized the importance of checking a company's fundamentals rather than blindly jumping into rapidly rising theme stocks.

The telecom equipment sector is regaining attention due to soaring demand for data center interconnection. As AI technology advances and data traffic exponentially increases, the importance of efficient data transmission has grown.

The inevitable expansion of optical communication technology for power saving also acts as a driving force for the growth of the telecom equipment industry. With discussions on the introduction of 6G mobile communication gaining momentum, an accumulation strategy for telecom equipment companies from a long-term perspective is considered effective.

The expansion of cloud services and AI infrastructure is expected to provide continuous growth opportunities for the telecom equipment industry. Related companies are actively investing in technology development and market preemption.

Robot-related valuations have already been adjusted in the market.

News to be announced in the future, such as joint research with Nvidia, will be important indicators for evaluating the value of Hyundai Motor's robot business. The opinion is that it is wise to approach this from a mid-to-long-term perspective rather than being tied to short-term IPO issues.

PAFC has relatively lower efficiency but is characterized by high heat generation.

Recently, Doosan Fuel Cell has been actively developing fuel cell technology, entering the market through collaborations with big tech companies based on PAFC technology.

This raised concerns that Korea might be relegated to a mere investor.

Questions are being raised about the synergistic effects through technological cooperation and mergers. Analysis suggests that the government's failure to participate in management may limit the initially expected opportunities for technology transfer or business expansion.

If the Westinghouse acquisition remains a mere financial investment, its positive long-term impact on Korea's nuclear power industry may be limited. Consequently, caution regarding the investment decision is spreading.

These remarks were interpreted to mean that the war would not end before the midterm elections, eroding expectations for a drop in oil prices.

As a result, market concerns about persistent inflationary pressure heightened. Nevertheless, the U.S. market showed relatively strong resilience despite overall negative factors.

Experts assess that Trump's remarks not only influenced market sentiment but also directly affected investor psychology by reflecting political observations on actual oil price movements.

Expert Park Byung-chang emphasized that if security or national security issues related to AI arise in the future, the responsibility for all of them, as well as the obligation to resolve them, must lie with the relevant companies.

The government has signaled a strong stance that it cannot grant immunity clauses to AI companies. This leads to the government's review of pre-regulation and control guidelines for potential risks that may arise with the advancement of AI technology.

Communication between the government and companies is crucial at this time to establish safeguards. As the social impact of AI technology grows, the ethical responsibility of companies and the regulatory role of the government are expected to become even more important.

This change increases market uncertainty and prompts investors to re-examine their risk management strategies.

Expert Park Byung-chang suggested the need for portfolio rebalancing, emphasizing that while the proportion of leading stocks like Samsung Electronics and Hynix should be maintained, the remaining 30% should be kept ready for cash conversion at any time.

Specifically, he recommended short-term trading or holding cash to prepare for uncertainties due to a potential interest rate hike. This is to ensure flexible response capabilities to sharp market fluctuations.

If an interest rate hike materializes, downward pressure on the market as a whole could increase. Therefore, investors should reconsider their asset allocation strategies from a conservative perspective.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee predicted that the domestic stock market would hold firm until early next year, despite two more interest rate hikes expected. He emphasized that even if the index falls, investors should not conclude that the market is over but rather use it as a buying opportunity.

He presented an optimistic outlook that the market's upward trend would continue until next spring, stating that investors do not need to be overly concerned about index declines.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee predicted a potential market correction if interest rate hikes enter their 3rd or 4th phase in the first half of next year. He then anticipated that bond yields would decline first when expectations for an interest rate cut form around summer.

He recommended aggressive investment in the stock market from the point where interest rate cuts are confirmed. This suggests a proactive investment strategy, anticipating a market turning point after the second half of next year.

There was a conflict of opinion between the host and expert Yoo Chang-hee regarding how to respond to a 3% drop. The host raised the need for a stop-loss, but expert Yoo Chang-hee emphasized "buy when it falls" and advocated for an additional purchase strategy.

He maintained the position that the possibility of the KOSPI index breaking below 6,200 is low, and that instead of selling during a market decline, one should hold on and consider additional purchases.

The host mentioned, "It seems there's an anxiety that since macro indicators are continuously unstable, it might just keep falling."

Market anxiety regarding interest rate hikes is deepening, and opinions also diverge on the possibility of a hawkish press conference. A cautious approach is suggested, emphasizing that understanding the reality is paramount rather than vague hope in the current market situation.

Various macroeconomic indicators point to uncertainty, making it difficult for investors to clearly predict future market directions. This uncertainty is expected to increase market volatility for some time.

He warned that the market is currently facing increased difficulties, and overly confident predictions about its future direction are dangerous. He took the position that a cautious approach is necessary during a period of high uncertainty.

He suggested that past success experiences may not directly apply to the current and future markets. He emphasized that it is time for investors to face reality and focus on risk management.