Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Share Buybacks: 100 Trillion Won of Unprecedented Liquidity Released

From a new purchase perspective, an analysis suggests that Samsung Electronics may be better than SK Hynix. This is because Samsung Electronics has not yet announced its shareholder return policy, leaving room for additional momentum. However, it is expected that the returns of both companies will be largely similar, and there will not be a significant difference in returns to warrant switching from one stock to another.

The reduction in the SK Hynix ADR disparity will take time, and it is likely that the disparity has significantly narrowed as the stock price has recently risen. Currently, the ADR disparity has partially narrowed due to the depreciation of the won (from 1,500 won to 1,390 won). In the short term, it will be difficult to reduce it to within 25%, and in the long term, it is expected to converge to the mid-20% range.

Even during past interest rate hike periods from May to July, a discrepancy existed between stock market trends and macro variables. It is pointed out that macro variables did not directly cause market collapse. The current market is maintaining vigilance, being conscious of macro thresholds.

The combined share buyback and cancellation by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is estimated to be approximately 100 trillion won. This accounts for about 15% of South Korea's annual budget of 700 trillion won, meaning a tremendous amount of capital movement will occur in just three months. This movement, 33 times larger than in the past, is analyzed as potentially being recognized as a new economic paradigm, or new normal.

The possibility of yen carry trade liquidation is assessed as low. The opinion was presented that there is little incentive to liquidate yen carry trades when interest rates are rising in all countries. The perspective is that an analysis of the impact of global liquidity on safe assets like gold and the market as a whole is necessary.

The key is to distinguish whether the current market decline is a long-term shock, like a financial crisis, or a short-term shock. If it is judged to be a long-term shock, then it is time to sell stocks, according to one opinion.

It is judged that holding semiconductor stocks will be better until early to mid-next week. This is because events related to next-generation chips from Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and Nvidia are scheduled. In particular, Nvidia's earnings announcement on August 26 could be a significant turning point for the semiconductor market.

The current market was described as a 'hiccup hill' period, a brief resting phase within an uptrend. Just as one cannot climb a mountain without rest, the market also undergoes a period of adjustment before reaching its peak. The possibility of an upward trend in the last week of August, depending on tomorrow's market movement, was also mentioned.

Once Samsung Electronics announces its shareholder return policy, these companies are expected to lead the market. The 100 trillion won share buyback will significantly contribute to alleviating market selling pressure. This could be inventory that is not for sale, according to an analysis.

The recent stock price increases have often been temporary surges, so it is too early to say that today's rise signifies a complete trend change with only upward movement ahead. A cautious stance was expressed, indicating that additional confirmation is needed after a short-term rise.

It was argued that direct purchase of Bitcoin is more effective when investing in virtual assets. The fact that a specific company is associated with virtual assets or holds exchange shares was deemed to have little significance for investment.

In the past, when the semiconductor market was strong, transformer-related stock prices tended to rise together. However, it was observed that in the future, when the semiconductor market is booming, the stock prices of data center-related companies may rise concurrently. It was advised that considering such a change as an investment idea could be a good strategy.

The bio sector continues to be viewed positively. It is analyzed that there may be a shift towards immune anticancer drugs through this opportunity, and immune anticancer drug platform companies like Alteogen could gain attention. Companies such as Leegene Biosciences and ABL Bio were also mentioned as having the potential to attract interest. The possibility of a shift in the bio sector's focus from obesity treatments to immune anticancer drugs was also raised.