Palantir: Growth Engine Amid Public Scrutiny

Since October, Palantir's target price has exceeded $200, ranging between $230 and $265. Among 24 market analysts, 19 issued 'buy' ratings, 3 'hold', and 2 'sell'.

Since October, target price forecasts have remained robust, exceeding $200 and ranging from $230 to $265.

Analysts predict that the $200 level will act as strong support after breaking its all-time high.

Orlando Kim believes it's necessary to check if EPS forecasts are rising, especially during stock price declines.

Even if the stock price temporarily dips, it is advantageous to approach it from a buying perspective if the EPS outlook is upward trending.

Focus should be on the company's fundamentals and long-term growth potential rather than short-term chart movements.

Palantir's revenue run rate is $8 billion, with a growth rate of 100%, driven by AI-powered FDE model automation. Goldman Sachs recently upgraded its investment opinion from 'neutral' to 'buy' and set a 12-month target price of $230.

Palantir's revenue run rate is approaching $8 billion, with a projected growth rate of 100%.

AI-powered Forward Deployed Engineer (FDE) model automation is expected to be a key growth driver.

Palantir's FDE model is a customized solution where engineers directly build and deploy software to suit the customer's environment.

Recently, this process has been automated with AI, significantly improving efficiency, which is expected to contribute to the expansion of the Total Addressable Market (TAM) through national AI projects and new verticalization strategies.

Palantir has consistently raised its initial conservative guidance aggressively each quarter.

Annual revenue for 2024 is now expected to close at $2.87 billion, up from an initial forecast of $2.6 billion, and 2025 revenue is also projected to exceed its $3.6 billion guidance to reach $4.47 billion.

Notably, the 2026 guidance is being raised from $8.15 billion to $8.26 billion, with U.S. commercial sector revenue growing 149% year-over-year, driving overall growth.

CEO Alex Karp's stretch goal is to raise the company's overall growth rate above that of the U.S. commercial sector.

If this goal is met, 2027 revenue is expected to range from $19 billion to $24 billion, significantly exceeding market consensus.

Achieving the revenue target suggests the possibility of approaching a $1 trillion market capitalization through EV/Sales multiple re-rating.

Analysts are currently uniformly raising Palantir's EPS and revenue estimates.

Palantir is increasing its eight-figure contracts, achieving a net dollar retention rate of 157%. Unlike token consumption-based companies like OpenAI, it has built a revenue model directly linked to real corporate performance.

This establishes differentiated core competitiveness by creating a revenue model directly tied to a company's actual performance.

Palantir is driving sustained growth through an increase in eight-figure contracts and a net dollar retention (NDR) rate of 157%.

The company claimed AI sovereignty by expanding AIP as a workflow operating system.

This includes the assertion that companies must maintain control over their data, operational logic, security models, and the intelligence that protects their competitive advantage.

Unlike competing models like OpenAI, Palantir uses Ontology to perform data security and request blocking, providing safeguards to prevent autonomous agents from accessing unauthorized data.

Currently, Palantir's forward EV/Sales multiple is trading at around 55x.

Reflecting the 2028 revenue estimate, the multiple drops to 25x, which is lower than Palantir's 5-year average multiple of 34x.

Based on current consensus estimates, if Palantir is re-rated to its 5-year average level in 2028, a 36% stock price increase from the current level is possible, with a target price of $270.

Palantir's risk factors include the aggressive revenue target achievement and over-reliance on U.S. revenue.

Bearish analysts are wary of competitors' growth rates, while bullish analysts mention Palantir's differentiated business model.

Palantir employs a 'land and expand' strategy using AIP Bootcamps, leading to value creation and trust building. Considering a net dollar retention rate of 157% and expanding profit margins, the quality of its revenue is considered significantly superior to that of OpenAI or Anthropic.

This stock has ended its downtrend and is now in an uptrend. The main evidence, an upward trend in Earnings Per Share (EPS), has been confirmed.

As long as the current uptrend continues, it is advisable to hold rather than rush to sell.

Joby Aviation, a deficit-making company, faces challenges in stock price appreciation with a short-selling ratio of 12%.

Although it forecasts achieving $438 million in revenue by 2028, this is expected to take a long time.

Having more debt than cash results in interest expense burdens and pressure for additional stock issuance, with shares outstanding increasing from 622 million in 2022 to 993 million currently, leading to value dilution.

For momentum stocks like Joby Aviation, a rise in the Russell Index and a decrease in interest rates are essential for a stock price rebound.

With the current stock price around $5, it is considered to be nearing its bottom given the extent of the decline, but rather than a sharp rebound, it is likely to undergo a period of time and price adjustment.

Short sellers are expected to exit and stock price appreciation is possible only after revenue and profit realization are demonstrated.

If the Russell Index does not rise, individual stock price appreciation is also difficult to expect. The stock price has currently fallen to the $5 level.

Interest rates must decline sufficiently for the stock price to regain momentum. The movement of the Russell Index and the stabilization of lower interest rates are prerequisites for a rebound.

Considering the PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio) valuation, Joby's stock is currently trading at approximately 37x, which is assessed to be near the lower end of its valuation range.

Rather than an immediate sharp rebound from the $5 support level, it will likely need to go through a bottoming-out process, and without external factors like a sharp drop in interest rates, it is likely to fluctuate within a period of adjustment.

For momentum stocks like Joby Aviation, which are not yet strong enough to rise on their own, it is essential to approach them based on chart trends.

From a risk-reward perspective, the potential for upside is currently rated higher than the downside, but actual revenue and profit growth must precede the resolution of short-selling volume.