Shipbuilding Stocks Rebound on Weak Won…Kosdaq Shows Strength

This is interpreted as a result of shipbuilding stocks, often cited as prime beneficiaries of a weak won, reacting immediately to market changes. Expert Kim Jang-yeol stated that the rise of shipbuilding stocks, which had been negatively impacted during the weak won period, suggests that niche strategies can continue to be effective.

After the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the market entered a lull, having largely resolved uncertainties about the Fed's monetary policy. Expert Kim Jang-yeol analyzed that the FOMC can no longer provide new information, and it is now time for the market to seek individual momentum. Accordingly, investors are raising expectations for the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season, anticipating that earnings announcements will be the next major momentum. Until the next quarter's earnings momentum fully kicks in, a strategy focusing on individual company issues is expected to be effective.

Expert Kim Jang-yeol interpreted this as suggesting that the Fed has not yet clearly grasped the economic impact of AI. The Fed has formed a task force (TFT) to study AI's impact on labor market supply and demand changes, and announced a review by year-end. This indicates that it may take considerable time for the Fed to evaluate AI's influence on interest rate decisions.

It has been confirmed that HVM, a profitable company currently generating approximately 16.4 billion won in annual profit, is undertaking a large-scale facility investment of 40 billion won. Expert Lee Kwon-hee analyzed that this investment strongly suggests HVM's solid partnership with SpaceX. HVM is known to supply components to SpaceX through Sphere, and such a massive investment would be difficult without certainty about future orders, thus supporting the robust relationship with SpaceX.

Increasing demand for defense reconnaissance satellites is acting as a positive catalyst for satellite-related stocks. However, a clear downtrend is observed in the weekly charts of major satellite-related stocks such as Satrec Initiative. Expert Lee Kwon-hee advised that it is advisable to approach satellite-related stocks from a short-term return game perspective. Investors need to confirm the formation of a box-range support line before engaging in short-term trading, and quick trading decisions are required due to the strong nature of the return game.

Expert Lee Kwon-hee emphasized that while ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) are useful when following major trends, they cannot replace in-depth study of individual stocks. Citing Daeduck Electronics as an example, he explained the importance of understanding a company's pipeline and next growth drivers. Given the large number of materials, parts, and equipment stocks, it is advisable to plan for continuous long-term study, and he warned that the practice of 'all-in' investing in specific stocks without sufficient research is risky.

Expert Lee Kwon-hee analyzed that Hanwha Engine, in particular, shows a consistent upward trend, raising its lows compared to HD Hyundai Marine Engine. While shipbuilding stocks overall have entered a rebound phase due to excessive declines, this suggests that individual companies' fundamentals and industry conditions can be reflected differently in stock prices. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is mentioned as a leading stock, and overall industry improvement, such as increased engine demand from China, should also be considered when investing.

Expert Kim Jang-yeol explained that when interest rates rise, the discount rate for a company's future profit streams increases, lowering its present value. Especially in an environment of rising long-term interest rates, downward pressure can be exerted on the overall market PER. Concerns are being raised that major domestic large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may also see their corporate valuations depreciated during periods of high interest rates.

Earnings momentum for major semiconductor and battery companies has shown divergence. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw little change in their earnings estimates and a stagnant trend after their Q2 earnings announcements. In contrast, Samsung SDI's Q3 earnings outlook was revised upwards after its Q2 earnings announcement, leading to a favorable stock performance. Expert Kim Jang-yeol analyzed that the 'slope of profit growth,' or earnings momentum, is more important to stock prices than the absolute profit scale itself, emphasizing the need to focus on differentiated earnings trends across companies.

Expert Kim Jang-yeol advised that in such a situation, it is crucial to anchor the portfolio around sectors that have defensive capabilities against inflation and can hedge against it. Energy drilling and crude oil development-related sectors, in particular, are cited as effective for inflation hedging. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a strategic focus based on major macro trends rather than short-term directions, as market rotations are occurring rapidly.

In a high interest rate environment, whether a company needs funding becomes a key criterion for distinguishing good investments from bad. Expert Park Seung emphasized that investors should be more cautious of companies that need funding—those not yet generating profits. Conversely, he recommended investing in 'quality stocks' with substantial cash on their balance sheets. He added that even within the biotech sector, it's essential to clearly differentiate between companies that generate cash flow without needing funding and those that do not.

After the U.S. FOMC meeting, the domestic stock market is analyzed to likely maintain a box-range trend without finding a clear direction. Manager Yoo Young-a stated that a full-scale mid-cap stock rotation has begun in the domestic market. It is expected that funds will rotate more prominently around themes and mid-cap stocks rather than large-cap stocks leading the market.

Despite the high interest rate environment where the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5%, the robot and biotech sectors showed strength. Manager Yoo Young-a expressed doubts about this trend, calling it a movement different from prior market predictions. This suggests a lack of sustained trends in leading sectors and a continuation of a non-trending market driven by short-term momentum.

The stock performance of domestic large-cap semiconductor companies like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics is currently stagnant. Manager Yoo Young-a predicted that Micron's Q3 earnings announcement (scheduled for October 1) will be a critical turning point for the direction of these large-cap stocks. She emphasized that not only the content of the earnings itself, but also how the market reacts and interprets the announcement, will be a major variable in determining the short-term upward or downward direction.

Manager Yoo Young-a pointed out that interest rates cannot be lowered because the economy is strong, and concerns about consumer sentiment and the economy weakening might grow more than worries about interest rates themselves. She emphasized the need to continuously monitor household consumption capacity through consumption-related indicators like retail sales data, and to prepare for the possibility of increasing household burdens as the interest rate hike cycle prolongs.

Manager Yoo Young-a explained that in past memory cycles, inventory levels were always a crucial indicator. Currently, inventory at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is less than ten days' worth, far below the normal inventory level of 6-8 weeks. This supports the view that the current memory industry conditions are favorable in terms of supply and demand, and excessive worry is unnecessary.

Expert Lee Ji-hwan explained that the reduction in investment during the 2022 downturn cycle means the impact of capacity reduction from 2024 to 2025 will continue until 2027. Furthermore, the increased difficulty of the HBM4 process is leading to a reduction in actual production volume (Q). Combined with increased demand from hyperscalers, this is exacerbating the semiconductor supply shortage.

An analysis suggests that when market expectations fade, and investors become fatigued and lose trust, companies' actual performance gets a greater opportunity for recognition. Expert Lee Ji-hwan predicted that when people are exhausted and everyone is leaving the market, better-than-expected earnings announcements can lead to even stronger stock price increases. This reflects the common market perception that 'the surprise effect is greater when there are no expectations.'

Expert Lee Ji-hwan explained that while companies are actively adopting AI, they show strong reluctance to allow AI to access or transfer company data to the cloud. In particular, there are significant concerns about increased hacking risks if agent AI is granted authority. The concept of security, which was previously focused on 'external blocking,' is shifting to 'internal monitoring,' and U.S. cybersecurity stocks have already proven their value in the market through their earnings and guidance.

Accordingly, market concerns about rising 10-year Treasury yields are expected to gradually diminish.

Expert Lee Ji-hwan emphasized that Fed Chair Powell's interest rate hike is not the beginning of a new rate hike cycle. The market perceives this rate hike as a concluding phase of monetary tightening, not an initial stage, and thanks to this perception, leading stocks, including tech stocks, are maintaining a relatively solid performance. This is supported by the fact that the market's reaction to the rate hike, unlike the first hike, occurred after several increases had already taken place.

Expert Lee Ji-hwan analyzed that because financial stock prices had already largely factored in rate hikes last year, it would be difficult for bank stocks to rise significantly based on interest rate increases alone, unlike in the past. While the benefit of rate hikes remains valid, investors need to lower their expectations for financial stocks, he advised.

Expert Lee Ji-hwan explained that the week after the U.S. futures and options expiration could be a better buying opportunity. Considering the inflow of long-term foreign funds, there's also a possibility of dividend-related buying before September 30.