U.S. Stock Market: Semiconductor Plunge, Oil Price Surge

However, it is also true that there is skepticism in the market about such announcements. This is because it is not typical for companies to voluntarily impose regulations on themselves.

The opaque depreciation method was also cited as a factor raising questions. Such accounting practices could be seen as an attempt to hide declining profitability due to soaring AI data center construction costs.

This is due to the pressure to prove growth and profitability after an IPO. The host analyzed that there might be an intention to reduce costs by slowing down investment to induce a fall in semiconductor prices.

The host explained that too much capital has entered the market, causing stock prices to react severely to even minor news. This is a typical vulnerability that appears when the market is overly concentrated in a specific sector.

The host pointed out that different investors perceive time differently: some find three months long, while others find three years short. This difference in time horizons leads to selling by impatient investors, which burdens stock price increases. Ultimately, a short-term discrepancy arises between a company's future value and its stock price movement.

Commodity prices, including oil, continue to soar, increasing pressure for interest rate hikes. The host stated that Brent crude reached $106 and WTI reached $101. Gasoline and heating oil prices are also consistently rising, raising overall inflation concerns.

This is interpreted as a signal foreshadowing overall price increases. The host mentioned that the U.S. requested Ukraine to refrain from attacking oil refineries, warning that soaring energy prices could affect all prices in six months.

This suggests that wars may occur for the benefit of energy companies. The host emphasized that this pattern has been observed in the past, implying a link between the energy market and geopolitical instability.

Damage to refinery facilities in the Middle East is worsening, fueling oil price increases. Major pipelines are being blocked due to Houthi rebel attacks and drone attacks in the Red Sea, and it is estimated that 3 to 5 trillion won will be needed to repair the damage, including major pumping facilities. The current supply-demand imbalance is further accelerating oil price increases.

However, the host suggested that a single hike or even a freeze cannot be ruled out, implying that the outcome might differ from market expectations.

Korea's 10-year government bond yield surpassed 4.5%, and the 3-year yield also recorded a sharp rise to 4.04%. The host warned that this trend could lead to an era of 8% credit loan interest rates. He emphasized the need to prepare in advance for a situation that could occur in late 2027 to early 2028.

The semiconductor sector has recently shown very high volatility with a sharp drop in stock prices. The host attributed the main cause of this increased volatility to high position concentration. He analyzed that many investment funds are concentrated in semiconductor-related stocks, causing prices to fluctuate significantly even with minor shocks. This suggests the possibility that leverage funds, in addition to equity capital, have also flowed in.