Foreigners' net futures buying reached the upper band, and despite an increase in credit balance, a stagnation in customer deposits raises concerns about increased market volatility.
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Ahead of next week's simultaneous expiration of futures and options, the market should maintain a cautious stance. While the market is showing a rebound, there are still important indicators to confirm, such as the expiration date and interest rate freeze decisions, so it is advised not to get carried away.
Analysis suggests more time is needed to determine market direction. Experts advise that volatility due to short-term issues could increase, and the possibility of a decline should be considered more than an ascent. They emphasized that market timing is absolutely impossible to get right.
Trading volume in the KOSPI market decreased to 17 trillion won, while that in the KOSDAQ market increased to 6.6 trillion won. Notably, an expanding proportion of individual investors was observed in the KOSDAQ market. Experts predict that if employment indicators for next week come out as expected, there is a high probability of a strong rebound in the KOSDAQ market.
The market volatility index dropped from the 40s to the 30s. This can be interpreted as a sign of market stabilization. However, decreasing volatility does not necessarily mean a market decline, and it should be considered alongside the potential for limited additional upward momentum. The market still holds unpredictable factors.
Driven by stabilizing interest rates, foreigners net purchased 960 billion won. While not a small amount in absolute terms, an analysis suggests that given the current index in the 7,000-point range, its impact is only about 500 billion won compared to the past. Therefore, it is difficult to hastily conclude that foreign buying is a strong signal for a market surge.
It was pointed out that preparation for increased market volatility is needed on next Thursday's simultaneous expiration of futures and options. It is advised to view this period as a section for volatility management rather than explosive gains, and to carefully observe foreign investors' futures handling. Currently, expecting a sharp rise is difficult, according to analysis.
Foreigners' cumulative net futures buying reached 28,000 contracts from June 12. Considering that foreigners historically moved within a range of plus or minus 30,000 contracts, additional buying capacity is limited. This could increase the likelihood of foreign profit-taking if the market rises further.
Analysis suggests that the recent short-term adjustment in cosmetic stocks is merely profit-taking, and it is unlikely that the trend has reversed. Leading cosmetic stocks still hold valid investment stories and are likely to rebound with an inverse characteristic when the market fluctuates. Therefore, a strategic approach of using adjustments as buying opportunities is considered effective.
It was suggested that the KOSDAQ market would be more comfortable for investment than KOSPI until the end of the year. In particular, a recovery in investment sentiment for the secondary battery and bio sectors is expected, and the semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (SooBuJang) sector is also considered a still valid investment avenue. It was added that KOSDAQ might be more advantageous for short-term trading.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's share buybacks are scheduled to end in mid-October. Concerns have been raised that if foreign buying does not continue to flow in thereafter, there could be a lack of means to support the market index. Some argue that the end of share buybacks could actually be a turning point for a market rebound.
SK Hynix officially announced through a public disclosure that the SolidiM IPO promotion is in an unconfirmed state. The company emphasized that while various options are being reviewed, nothing has been finalized to date.
While the credit balance has recovered to 33 trillion won, investor deposits remain stagnant around 100 trillion won. This suggests that aggressive investments are being made, utilizing existing cash to the maximum, approaching collateral ratios of 140-150%. If the credit leverage balance remains high, the risk of forced selling could increase when market volatility expands.
Analysis suggests that the current ratio of credit leverage to customer deposits is approaching 40%, indicating that the market's supply and demand situation has entered a very precarious phase. This means the market could react sharply to even small shocks, and investors are advised to exercise caution.
Advice was given that in the current market, it is wiser to wait until 'Mr. Market' determines the direction rather than relying on investor predictions. Focusing on short-term trading or observing until market uncertainties are resolved can also be a valid investment strategy.
Following the release of the US employment report, the probability of an interest rate hike is expected to drop to the 30% range. With the US stock market closed next Monday, the domestic stock market is anticipated to move within a narrow range. The market is focusing on the results of the US employment data and the potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy that may follow.
Most of the current market risks are expected to dissipate around September. Analysis suggests that once these already reflected risks disappear, new leading stocks are likely to emerge. The contours of the ongoing competition for leading stocks are expected to become clearer after September.
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