Clarity Act Fails: Crypto Market 'Declines'

The Clarity Act was rejected in a Senate vote with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster. As a result, analysts believe that the bill's final passage this year is practically impossible. The primary reason cited is the weakening of bipartisan support due to dissenting votes within the Republican Party. The attempt to resolve conflicts of interest in the virtual asset market also failed. Yoo Sa-nam said, "In my personal opinion, I would lean towards it being difficult for the final passage this year."

This decline proves that anticipation for the bill's passage was a major factor in Bitcoin's rise. After confirmation of the bill's rejection, Bitcoin's price fell from around $79,000 to $75,000. Yoo Sa-nam explained, "With the failure of the Clarity Act to pass, it seems to have been proven as Bitcoin, which had gone up to $78,000-$79,000, dropped to $75,000." Furthermore, analysis suggests that with bond yields maintaining above 5%, the attractiveness of alternative assets like virtual assets has also decreased.

This is interpreted as an attempt to resolve market distrust and reduce additional risk premiums. Yoo Sa-nam stated, "The surge in treasury yields is not a US issue but a global issue." However, whether the actual rate of increase in yields will decrease still depends on market demand and auction results, leaving uncertainty.

This is because 30-year mortgage rates have reached 7%, significantly increasing the burden on ordinary households. The biggest reason is that ordinary citizens find it difficult to bear high interest costs relative to their real incomes. Yoo Sa-nam emphasized, "5% cannot be the new normal. It can be a situation that can be endured for a short period, and companies can endure it, but individuals will find it difficult to bear this price." The forecast is that while companies can endure high interest rates in the short term, the impact on the personal economy is so significant that high rates are unlikely to be sustained for more than one or two years.

The weighting of these two factors can be a crucial standard in determining future investment directions. Yoo Sa-nam pointed out, "However, is that the main reason? Or was it a short squeeze caused by Trump pressuring on the Clarity Act? These are two different stories." If OT was the main reason, Bitcoin's uptrend is likely to continue, but if pressure from the Clarity Act was the cause, the lower likelihood of the bill's passage could increase downward pressure.

The prevailing opinion is that due to this Senate rejection, there is little room for the bill to be re-discussed and passed within the remaining period. Yoo Sa-nam mentioned, "The Clarity Act, I don't think it will happen this year," adding that the likelihood of stock prices falling could increase as mid-September approaches.

Analysis suggests that ETF fund inflows will serve as a major basis for supporting Bitcoin's price. Yoo Sa-nam projected, "Will it keep falling? I think Bitcoin will find support at $75,000." However, he warned that the overall liquidity contraction phase could still act as a negative factor for the Bitcoin market.

Saudi Arabia's involvement is considered a 'red line' and a situation that could lead to a severe crisis in the global energy market. Yoo Sa-nam said, "The scenario where Saudi Arabia enters a war with the Houthis and actually blocks oil pipelines is a scenario where oil prices go up to $120." However, the opinion was also presented that Saudi Arabia's dependence on the US is high, making unilateral involvement doubtful.

He characterized tomorrow's session as 'judgment day,' expressing confidence in conveying even the subtle nuances of the FOMC to investors. He particularly emphasized the importance of observing bond yields, stressing that this will be a key indicator for determining investment direction. Yoo Sa-nam urged, "Tomorrow is our judgment day. I think continuously observing bond yields tomorrow will probably be the most important point for all of you."