PCE Inflation Indicator Decline, and What Lies Beneath

Immediately after the announcement, assets such as stocks, gold, and Bitcoin rose, and bond yields fell, but later gave back some of the gains. Headline PCE dropped to 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%) and 3.4% year-over-year (expected 3.7%), while core PCE fell to 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%) and 3.0% year-over-year (expected 3.3%), showing that the Fed's preferred inflation indicator cooled in August but still remained high.

When headline PCE was announced at 3.4% (expected 3.7%) and core PCE at 3.0% (expected 3.3%) on an annual basis, asset prices such as stocks, gold, and Bitcoin rose immediately after the announcement, and bond yields fell, but some of the gains were soon given back.

It appears the government has changed the way it measures the prices of portfolio management software and legal services.

Economists analyze that these changes have had the effect of lowering the annual inflation rate by approximately 0.2 percentage points, raising criticism about the reliability of the inflation indicator.

While Bitcoin may temporarily show correlation with other assets, it maintains its uncorrelated asset characteristics in the long term.

Recently, Bitcoin has broken existing correlations and reached new highs, suggesting the possibility of entering a new cycle.

These movements were analyzed in more detail during a broadcast with Mark Yusko.

Asset management firm Bitwise conducted a survey of decision-makers from 15 major institutions (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, etc.).

Despite a more than 50% drop in Bitcoin's price during this harsh 11-month bear market, not a single institution reduced its Bitcoin investment allocation.

Instead, many institutions increased their Bitcoin holdings, with most allocating between 1% and 2% of their assets to Bitcoin, maintaining a long-term perspective.

All 15 institutional investors selected by Bitwise did not reduce their Bitcoin exposure at all, even during the market downturn.

This shows that institutional investors perceive Bitcoin as an important asset from a long-term perspective, not a short-term speculative target.

It will include advanced trading features such as earnings prediction, perpetual futures trading, and OCO orders. Through various features like Robinhood Social and Robinhood Agents, it will support 24/7 trading, including weekends.

It also plans to enhance user experience by strengthening earnings prediction and social trading features.

Chaired by Representative James Comer, the committee stated it has already received nearly 1,000 documents from these companies and participated in five briefings.

The committee has already received nearly 1,000 documents from these companies and participated in five briefings, and is tracking potential information manipulation and insider trading within prediction markets, including investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket which began in May.

OpenAI has introduced its AI agent service, 'Dots,' marking a shift into a phase where AI manages personal lives and formulates strategies on behalf of individuals.

Transactions by these AI agents are expected to be processed through stablecoins and blockchain rails instead of traditional bank account KYC (Know Your Customer) procedures, which is projected to stimulate microtransactions in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

With new tools like Facebook Muse driving innovation, ChatGPT is also integrating general-purpose assistant functions, intensifying market competition. It is predicted that within six months, users will entrust their entire lives to AI, as agents transform into chief of staff managing personal lives.

New tools such as Facebook Muse are driving innovation, and ChatGPT is integrating existing AI agent functions to strengthen its role as a general-purpose assistant.

The pace of technological development is so fast that it is expected that within six months, individuals will entrust the management of their lives to AI.

Concurrently, the terms of service for some AI services include disclaimers about the potential for AI to harm users, highlighting the dilemma between the pace of technological advancement and stability.

When an environment arises where AI agents perform transactions on behalf of users on platforms like Robinhood, the use of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies becomes essential, replacing traditional bank account KYC procedures.

The numerous microtransactions occurring between AI agents will be efficiently processed on blockchain rails, which is expected to become the core infrastructure of the new AI agent economy.