Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Rebounds to 50%, People Power Party Falls to 20%

President Lee Jae-myung's positive assessment of state affairs recorded 50%, a 1 percentage point increase from the previous survey. This result was shown in the NBS National Index Survey, with negative assessments remaining at 43%, the same as before.

In party support, the Democratic Party of Korea rose to 41%, while the People Power Party fell to 20%. As a result, the gap between the two parties' approval ratings widened to 21 percentage points.

Regarding these results, there were reactions asking if the People Power Party's 20% approval rating in the NBS, a phone interviewer survey, meant it 'has no value of existence.' It was suggested that it is generally uncommon for the People Power Party's approval rating to drop below 23%.

It was recalled that the People Power Party's approval rating had previously fallen to 17% in NBS surveys. This suggests that the current 20% approval rating is close to past lows.

The most significant aspect of this survey is the rebound in the president's approval rating. The rebound of the presidential approval rating, which had been continuously setting new lows, is considered a notable change.

In the NBS survey, the presidential approval rating rebounded for the first time among opinion polls announced at the national convention. Even in Poll Survey Kkot, telephone interview surveys showed an upward trend, while ARS surveys showed a downward trend.

While some argue for the defection of 'core supporters,' according to reporter Park Dae-yong's analysis, core supporters have not defected. However, it was diagnosed that the intensity of their support has somewhat cooled.

Core supporters have not defected, but the intensity of their support has weakened. In other words, while core supporters have cooled, they have not withdrawn their support.

This NBS survey can be interpreted as showing that core supporters have not defected but rather that the intensity of their support has weakened. The rebound in the approval rating compared to the previous week supports this analysis.

Due to these results, attention is focused on tomorrow's Gallup opinion poll results. It remains to be seen how Gallup's opinion poll, to be released tomorrow morning at 10 AM, will turn out.

Attention is being paid to the phenomenon where ARS survey results and phone interview survey results appear differently. Phone interview surveys tend to show higher presidential approval ratings than ARS surveys.

According to reporter Park Dae-yong's diagnosis, the active supporters of the president, i.e., the core supporters, are currently in a state where their support intensity has weakened to simply 'doing well.' This weakening of support intensity can lead to a decrease in response rates in ARS surveys.

In automated response systems like ARS, those who are not very active supporters of the president tend not to respond. This acts as a reason why approval ratings may appear lower in ARS surveys.

Unlike ARS surveys, phone interviews ask again about support even if the response is a refusal, making it more likely that even those with weaker support for the president will be included in the sample. Therefore, approval ratings may appear higher in phone interviews than in ARS surveys.

As such, phone interviews are more likely to include those with weaker support, so approval ratings may appear relatively higher. This is an important factor explaining the difference from ARS surveys.

Through this analysis, it was suggested that the president's approval rating is not completely bottoming out and plummeting, as some media or claims suggest. Simply emphasizing a decline in approval ratings may be an exaggerated interpretation.

Therefore, it was concluded that there is no need to fall for 'approval rating fear marketing' in the current situation. It was emphasized that understanding the causes of approval rating changes and the characteristics of survey methods is important.