Will Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Shareholder Return Policies Mark a Turning Point for the Stock Market?

Expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to buy back and cancel their own shares have emerged as a major turning point for the market. Lee Ga-ram, MBN Gold Manager, commented, "How is it? Did you see it? It's the final stage. As I've been emphasizing, Hynix's shareholder return policy has come out, and I thought Samsung Electronics would come out first, but it seems taking the first shot is important." He diagnosed that shareholder return policies will be a key factor in determining future response strategies for both the global and domestic markets.

The possibility of setting short-term target prices and forming new themes within the semiconductor sector is also being raised.

Such expectations of shareholder returns positively impact investor sentiment and have the potential to change market trends.

Expectations for semiconductor companies' shareholder return policies are acting as a factor limiting downward pressure on the Kospi market. Manager Lee Ga-ram, despite market concerns about Nvidia's earnings announcement, stated, "Given the impending shareholder returns from Samsung Electronics and Hynix, would it be possible to take a big short position on Kospi? This would be quite burdensome, and I clearly informed you of this on Tuesday." He explained that shareholder return policies could make it difficult to take inverse investment positions.

Consequently, the opinion was presented that it is necessary to adjust the proportion of inverse investments.

Amid continued instability in the US stock market, Treasury yields rose again and oil prices surged. Manager Lee Ga-ram expressed market concerns, stating, "The interest rates that came down yesterday are rising again. This is also not good, and then oil prices are rising again, with crude oil up 3% today."

The re-rise in US Treasury yields and a 3% surge in crude oil prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

This, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, is fueling concerns about rising consumer prices.

Confirming the market's direction after the opening of the US main session is considered crucial at this point.

While the Kospi index has recently shown an upward trend, the overall market trading volume remains minimal. As the analysis states, "The important thing is that trading volume is not increasing significantly. Although Kospi, Hynix, and Samsung Electronics rose by more than 10% today, trading volume only increased slightly." This highlights a phenomenon where supply and demand are concentrated primarily on specific large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

The biotech sector also saw gains limited to certain stocks like Alteogen, indicating a lack of active trading volume inflow across the broader market.

Recently, the domestic stock market has seen a conflict between massive selling by institutional financial investors and concentrated buying by foreign investors. As stated, "Foreigners turned to buying on the Kospi, while institutions sold for the fourth consecutive day, led by financial investment which sold for four days, with financial investment alone selling 5 trillion won over five trading days." The financial investment sector net sold approximately 5 trillion won over the past five trading days, putting downward pressure on the market.

Conversely, foreigners net bought approximately 2 trillion won, primarily in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, supporting specific market sectors. Investment trusts and private equity funds also showed buying momentum in semiconductor-related stocks.

Since the market low on July 29, individual investors have continued to sell, while foreign investors have maintained net buying, indicating a shift in market leadership. According to the analysis, "Foreigners, represented by yellow, have been cumulatively buying since that low. So, who is leading the market now? It can be seen as foreigners." Individual investors have net sold approximately 9 trillion won, while foreign investors have net bought 9 trillion won, leading the market.

Financial investment's 4 trillion won selling spree continues.

The increasing purchase of leveraged inverse ETFs (double inverse) by individual investors is attracting market attention. According to the analysis, "The buying of leveraged inverse ETFs by individuals is increasing again. When individual leveraged inverse buying increases, betting on the downside increases, the index has always gone up." In the past, increased individual leveraged inverse buying often acted as a signal for an upward reversal in the index.

This phenomenon could lead to increased upside betting in the market, suggesting the possibility of an index rise.

SK Hynix's announcement of a 40 trillion won share buyback has garnered significant market attention. Manager Lee Ga-ram analyzed, "This is a situation where the monthly average buying by foreigners for Hynix this year exceeds their selling. So, it's more than enough to absorb all the foreign selling."

While foreigners' monthly average selling of SK Hynix this year is around 9 trillion won, the estimated monthly average buying through share buybacks is expected to reach 13 trillion won.

This implies that the share buyback can sufficiently counter foreign selling pressure.

SK Hynix's decision to distribute 60% of performance bonuses in company shares raises the possibility of additional buying beyond shareholder returns. Manager Lee Ga-ram stated, "They have to do another share buyback for employees. This doesn't really have to do with boosting stock prices, but there's still a need for this buying, so additional supply and demand will come in."

This suggests that additional buying volume to secure shares for employees, separate from shareholder return purposes, could enter the market.

Such factors could act as variables with a positive short-term impact on stock prices.

Market expectations for Samsung Electronics' shareholder return policy have surged from an initial 100 trillion won to a maximum of 150 trillion won. However, as the analysis states, "Samsung Electronics, due to the financial-industrial separation law involving Samsung Life and Samsung C&T, cannot strongly conduct share buybacks if their stake increases. So, perhaps dividends would be more favorable, meaning more dividends." Realistic constraints also exist.

Bank of America (BoA) predicted that Samsung Electronics is more likely to opt for increased dividends than large-scale share buybacks due to the financial-industrial separation law and issues with Samsung Life's shareholding.

This suggests that Samsung Electronics' shareholder return approach could manifest in various forms beyond simple share buybacks.

Samsung Electronics' stock is analyzed to face strong resistance in the 280,000 to 300,000 won range. Manager Lee Ga-ram stated, "When it reaches between 280,000 and 300,000 won, there will be many forces trying to push it down. It is also Samsung Electronics' situation to digest a large volume of shares in this section."

Whether it breaks through the 60-day moving average will be a critical technical turning point determining the future stable box-range movement of Samsung Electronics' stock. If the rise is due to mere expectations rather than industry recovery, profit-taking selling after the shareholder return policy announcement cannot be ruled out.

Analysis suggests that the beneficiaries of Samsung Electronics' shareholder return method will vary. Manager Lee Ga-ram explained, "If they focus on increasing share buybacks, who benefits? Just Samsung Electronics. But if it's more about increased dividends, who benefits? For dividends, who is more advantageous? Preferred shares are more advantageous than common shares."

Specifically, if share buybacks are expanded, Samsung Electronics common shares are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries.

Conversely, if the focus is on dividend expansion, Samsung Electronics preferred shares and Samsung Life are likely to benefit.

Current institutional supply and demand analysis shows a trend of focusing on Samsung Electronics preferred shares rather than Samsung Life.

Market rumors are spreading regarding the timing and scale of Samsung Electronics' shareholder return policy announcement. As mentioned, "The market rumors today suggest it might come out as early as tomorrow or next Monday. Those who estimate moderately expect around 110 trillion won, and those who foresee 140 trillion won believe it was originally 120 trillion, with an additional 20 trillion won for share buybacks." Thus, the prevailing expectation is an announcement as early as next Monday.

The market estimates the scale to be between 110 trillion and 140 trillion won, and rumors are also spreading that share buybacks and dividends will proceed at an equal ratio.

A cautious view was also raised that shareholder return policies are merely a means to boost stock prices, separate from any fundamental improvement in the semiconductor industry. Manager Lee Ga-ram emphasized, "This share buyback policy does not mean the industry is improving. Shareholder returns do not change industry conditions. It's just a place to prove profitability this time, not an indication that things will get better in the future."

He also added that if a Blue Wave occurs after the midterm elections, there could be regulatory risks concerning AI infrastructure investments.

Key events and technology conferences for the semiconductor industry are scheduled starting next Sunday, drawing significant attention. Manager Lee Ga-ram expressed anticipation, stating, "Next Sunday, there will be disclosures related to next-generation memory and HBM, and some technological releases are expected there."

Discussions on next-generation memory, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology, and mass production yield rates are scheduled for Sunday.

On Monday, major semiconductor companies including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are expected to announce platform technologies.

Following that, on the 25th, information related to network and customized chips will be released. These conferences are expected to be important opportunities to present directions for semiconductor technology development and new market themes.