Kospi Led by Semiconductors: Will It Break Out of the Box Range After the Holiday?

The market on the day before the Chuseok holiday is expected to show a downward trend. Foreign investors are showing passive moves in both futures and spot trading.

Individual investors are strengthening selling pressure as they perceive the index to be at the upper end of its box range. As the index fell after the morning open, the special nature of the day before the holiday is being reflected in the market.

The upward moves of major US companies such as Lam Research, Applied Materials, and ASML stimulated investment sentiment in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector.

Expectations for a recovery in the investment cycle flowed in, causing front-end equipment stocks such as Eugene Technology and PSK to surge.

In particular, Zeus surged 15% in a single day, drawing market attention.

Fluctuations in specific industries such as solar power are a process of retracing expectations and concerns. Ahead of the US-China summit during the Chuseok holiday, the market turned cautious.

Due to such uncertainty, the market showed a somewhat taking-a-break appearance, and recent fluctuations in specific industries such as solar power are analyzed as a process where expectations and concerns intersect.

On this day, the Kospi index rose, but while there were 276 advancing stocks, there were 576 declining stocks, far outnumbering advancers.

This led to analysis that the domestic market failed to fully reflect the surge in the US semiconductor market, and that market concerns are being priced in in advance.

At the same time, expectations for improved performance in the foundry business also positively affected the stock price rise. This acted as a differentiating factor from SK Hynix.

Additionally, ahead of the dividend record date on September 30, inflows seeking dividends are interpreted to have influenced the stock's strength.

Substantial profits are expected after next year when Tesla volumes begin in earnest. Samsung Electronics' foundry is preparing to turn profitable based on its 4nm process achievements amid increasing HBM orders.

Currently, actual improvement in foundry profitability is expected after next year, when Tesla volumes are anticipated to begin in earnest.

This trend is evidence that HBM orders were plentiful, and analysis suggests that strong HBM sales are positively affecting the foundry business.

In the long term, in the HBM4 era, the possibility is being raised that Samsung Electronics may hold a more advantageous position than SK Hynix.

This can be interpreted as a long-short play with dividends in mind, a strategy of buying certain stocks and selling others to prepare for market volatility.

It is necessary to watch whether foreign supply-demand changes continue until the 28th.

For investors focused on large caps, waiting is recommended in the current market. Kosdaq sees active individual-centered trading, but Kospi large caps have short trend persistence.

For Kospi large-cap themes, trend persistence tends to be short, and for large-cap-focused investors, a strategy of waiting rather than rushing to invest in the current market seems effective.

Investors skilled at quickly acquiring information and trading can find opportunities in Kosdaq small and mid-cap stocks, but if not, it is better to watch the large-cap market's trajectory.

Alongside nuclear power, a simultaneous rebound is confirmed in power-related stocks such as solar and fuel cells. Although short-term trends such as breaking below the 20-day moving average have wavered, pessimism from a long-term perspective is premature considering the power shortage phenomenon.

Recently, a simultaneous rebound has been confirmed in solar and fuel cell-related stocks such as Hanasolution and OCI, and as the power shortage phenomenon becomes visible, the nuclear sector is likely to maintain a long-term uptrend.

Expectations are growing that Korean companies will gain indirect benefits from strengthened US regulations on Chinese solar products.

OCI Holdings secured upward momentum for its stock price by signing a solar polysilicon supply contract with Tesla. Expectations for additional capacity expansion for entry into the US market are also being reflected.

Solar accounts for 50% of new power generation facilities, and expectations for price increases after December 4 may be priced in in advance.

The US is likely to discuss AI security issues and easing big tech regulations, and additional negotiations may take place in other industrial fields such as secondary batteries.

The outcome of this summit is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of the global semiconductor market.

This earnings improvement is interpreted as stemming from increased demand in forward industries centered on factory automation robots.

Meta's AI agent 'Muse' recorded 2.8 million downloads within 12 days of launch, spreading rapidly.

This means Meta is entering in earnest the B2C model previously led by OpenAI, attempting a transition to a business revenue model based on user data (rising ad rates).

Meta aims to create new advertising revenue by providing advertisers with customized ad data based on user experience.

Attention should be paid to the future impact of Meta's AI agent strategy on the advertising market and the resulting changes in profitability.

AI agent inference services, which emphasize command control functions over simple computation, are driving CPU demand.

If the ratio of GPUs to CPUs was 8 to 1 in the past, it is now changing to 2 to 1 or even 1 to 1, further highlighting the importance of CPUs.

This increase in CPU demand will ultimately create a chain reaction leading to increased demand for memory semiconductors and SSDs, which are essential components of systems.

Therefore, in the AI agent era, it is expected to drive growth not only in CPUs but in the overall semiconductor market.

On this day as well, they converted intraday selling volume into buying around the close, recording net buying of 387.6 billion won. This is interpreted as a signal that foreign investors see the market upside in the stock, futures, and options markets alike.

With the US military not directly intervening, it is presumed that Saudi Arabia and others encouraged government forces, intensifying the civil war, which is seen as being able to prevent the Red Sea issue from deepening in the short term.