Gangnam-Non-Gangnam Polarization Deepens… Overheating Concerns

In the past, an upward trend in a specific real estate region tended to spread throughout the entire market, but recently, this linkage has weakened, showing different movements by region.

This policy stance, re-emerging after 21 years, differs from past regulations that targeted multiple homeowners, now shifting its focus to ultra-high-priced homes and the so-called 'one good home'.

The relevant regulations are expected to disadvantage the 'one good home' strategy until the end of next year. Consequently, Gangnam's relative contraction is anticipated to persist until the end of next year, making it advisable to avoid the 'one good home' strategy in the short term. Instead, there's a high possibility that 'middle-core homes' – mid-priced properties – will emerge in the market. Middle-core homes have the advantage of being reasonably priced, attracting a strong base of genuine buyers, and thus being relatively stable even amid market volatility.

This is expected to exert significant pressure on high-priced homeowners' decisions to sell. Furthermore, as the comprehensive real estate tax (Jongbu-se) deduction method is reorganized around residency, it could prompt older adults and high-priced homeowners to review their housing portfolios.

Modern society is defined as a 'neo-nomadic society' based on digital networks where physical boundaries are blurred. In line with this trend, the view is raised that flexible housing policies are needed to maximize freedom and choice in residential mobility. The explanation is that rather than emphasizing settlement in specific areas as in the past, allowing individuals to freely move their residences according to their lifestyle aligns with current trends.

The buying spree resulting from the creation of semiconductor complexes is expected to definitely affect real estate in the southern Gyeonggi region. However, it is unlikely that this buying spree will penetrate into the heart of Seoul's Gangnam. Instead, it could indirectly affect outer Gangnam areas of Seoul, such as the outskirts of Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu, and Gangdong-gu. This is based on considerations of commuting routes and living conditions for workers at the semiconductor complexes.

However, there is a possibility that buying demand will continue to occur until then. The real estate market outlook must be judged comprehensively based on various indicators, not just interest rates. Complex factors such as the speed and magnitude of interest rate hikes, economic growth rate, and supply volume all affect the market.

If investment funds are insufficient, a strategy of considering alternative areas within a 1-hour commute from one's residence, rather than insisting on only the best investment areas, is needed. Outlying metropolitan areas like Pyeongtaek or Anseong, though not the top choice, can be viable alternatives. When making investment decisions, it is important to choose what is optimized for individual circumstances rather than the absolute best option.

Active buyers can evaluate the competitiveness of properties using an Excel scoring system (Likert scale) by apartment complex through document work. Based on these selected properties, a final selection through on-site visits is useful. Even during periods of market surge, unexpected good properties can be secured on-site, and combining data analysis with on-site verification leads to successful investment.

Single homeowners who reside in their property can generally withstand a real estate market crisis. Especially for salaried workers with secure cash flow, extreme situations are less common than one might think. Their ability to respond to crises, such as by moving to less expensive housing, is relatively higher compared to multiple homeowners with gap investments.