Geopolitical changes in the Middle East and in tech stocks, such as Anthropic CEO's remarks about slowing down AI development, acted as major market variables.
As Yemeni government forces withdrew, Houthi rebels reportedly strengthened their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The possibility of a halt in operations of the Saudi East-West oil pipeline is also being discussed, raising tensions in the crude oil market.
A security meeting scheduled in Oman was abruptly postponed. Iran maintains a hardline stance despite international pressure, supporting a joint declaration with the UAE urging restraint at the BRICS meeting.
U.S. diesel prices surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time ever, triggering an alert in the energy market. This unprecedented rise in oil prices is placing a significant burden on the overall economy. Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) freight rates also hit record highs, increasing upward pressure on transportation costs, while China's move to secure crude oil reserves also contributes to upward pressure on oil prices.
When former President Donald Trump proposed a $5,000 dividend pledge, Democrats raised criticisms. Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, argued it could be achieved in a fiscally responsible manner, but skepticism is prevalent in the market. In particular, criticisms were raised that Intel's stock would need to increase 30-fold for the claim of using Intel investment returns as a source to be realistic.
Former President Trump strongly argued for continued AI development, calling AI data centers a 'golden goose.' He emphasized the need to maintain the upward trend in the AI hardware sector for market protection and election strategy.
He announced plans to provide research-level access to external evaluation bodies, strengthen compliance with AI safety measures, and improve incident reporting. This statement, made ahead of the company's IPO, had a significant impact on the AI industry and market.
We must keep pace with the advancements of cutting-edge technology. I have written a new essay outlining why the AI industry should slow down and my three plans to achieve this. We have voluntarily decided to implement this first step.
Sam Altman of OpenAI agreed with Amodei's opinion, mentioning the need to adjust the pace of AI technology innovation. Elon Musk also joined in supporting Amodei's arguments, with other AI industry giants following suit. While this could be interpreted as a voluntary control movement by the industry, some critics suggest it might be a marketing strategy or 'fear-mongering' by a company ahead of its IPO. Meanwhile, discussions are deepening about what significance the U.S. slowing down might have amid China's pursuit of AI.
The authenticity of the argument for adjusting the pace of AI development is unclear to general investors. This is because AI developers are continuing discussions through private technology sharing. Consequently, the market's judgment on the potential risks of AI technology must rely on the developers' statements, and the possibility of 'fear marketing' cannot be ruled out.
He emphasized that 'whoever wins in AI wins,' stressing the need for continued AI technology development from a national competitiveness perspective, given that the U.S. is ahead of China in the AI field. This dismisses the arguments of those who view AI negatively and reveals an intention to secure technological hegemony.
While not a complete halt to AI data center investment, the argument for slowing down development could harm the narrative of investing in 'frontier labs.' Recently, futures markets such as hyperliquid have also shown a decline, raising concerns about increased market volatility.
Microsoft (MS) announced plans to triple its data centers, indicating an acceleration in hardware and infrastructure investment. This shows that the long-term growth drivers in new technology sectors such as AI and blockchain remain valid.
Oracle's stock price, after a period of上涨, turned down 1.7% due to profit-taking. Chairman Larry Ellison announced plans to sell shares but canceled them a day later in an incident. Meanwhile, Dell is expected to benefit from increased data center capital expenditure, creating mixed fortunes in the related market.
Next month, on the 1st, the Roadster is scheduled for unveiling, with attention focusing on whether it will be equipped with cold gas thrusters. Tesla's aggressive new product launches are seen as a strategy to strengthen its position in the future mobility and robotics markets.
This appears to be due to negative market environment changes, such as concerns about delays in SMR construction schedules.
The remarks from key leaders in the AI industry about regulating development speed are causing market anxiety. There is a possibility that these statements could lead to a short-term decline in semiconductor-related stocks. Some even question whether AI leaders are creating fear to flaunt their influence. The opinion that precise analysis through global interviews is needed has also been suggested.
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