Angle Protractor: US Stock Volatility Ahead of CPI and Analysis of the AI and Semiconductor Market

Angle Protractor said that his ongoing broadcast activities are under review, and that a review order has already been issued. Accordingly, he mentioned that after finishing appearances scheduled through next week, he plans to scale back broadcasting and take a break. This change appears to stem from having achieved his original activity goals.

The US stock market showed a wait-and-see pattern with little volatility ahead of the consumer price index (CPI) release. Still, one noteworthy development emerged: Nvidia signed a $500 million data center deal with private equity firms. Angle Protractor stressed that this deal needs deeper analysis to understand its implications.

After the legendary engineer Dedin reportedly left the company, rumors spread that Demis Hassabis, head of Google DeepMind and a Nobel laureate in medicine, also tried to leave but was persuaded to stay by moving into a chairman role at Google. News of these departures raised concerns about Google's future growth engines and pushed the stock down nearly 4%.

Memory is expected to account for more than 40% of new iPhone component costs, which fits a broader trend in which memory now carries a higher share of cost than GPUs in AI data centers. As a result, even Apple faces memory becoming the most expensive element in phone production. Attention is focused on how the price increase will affect sales. Meanwhile, news arrived that Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8, sized for YouTube viewing, is selling well.

Brent crude is again approaching $90 a barrel, and gasoline prices have surged to $3.14 per gallon. Angle Protractor pointed out that gasoline prices hit inflation directly and have a decisive impact on the CPI, so if this rise continues, the CPI is unlikely to look good.

The Bank of Korea reaffirmed its willingness to raise rates, and the market is increasingly asking how many more hikes will come. This uncertainty is translating into a stronger won. The Bank of Korea is analyzed as able to produce a substantial tightening effect with only about three more hikes.

Angle Protractor strongly judged that Japan's rate hike policy has failed. He stressed how important financial policy and the modernization of financial systems are, arguing that weaker finance leads to a decline in international currency value. He warned that while Japan's government might accept a weaker yen and tolerate the dollar-yen rate climbing toward 200, this would plunge ordinary citizens into severe hardship. He also predicted that K-shaped economic imbalance would deepen even in a homogeneous society like Japan.

The reasoning is that Japan will keep rates low at 1% and pursue only gradual hikes, while Korea looks set to keep raising rates this year and next. Angle Protractor judged that conditions favor a stronger won, but noted that if Japan unexpectedly sends a strong rate-hike signal, the won's weakness could stop, and this must be checked through the end of this year.

News emerged that AMD signed a large deal in the data center sector. AMD entered a 20-year data center purchase agreement with Anthropic worth $9.1 billion. AMD products are expected to be the main hardware used in this data center, so AMD is expected to achieve sustained growth in the data center segment. This deal is seen as an important foothold that will strengthen AMD's position in the AI and data center market.

Despite such high revenue, it is expected to post a loss because of enormous data center costs of $40 to $50 billion a year. Angle Protractor analyzed that if Anthropic shows rapid growth before going public, investors will willingly lend it money, and it will face no financial problems until it lists.

The core of today's AI industry is a race to rapidly build data centers, and a strong push to generate profit from them. Therefore, the most important element in the AI narrative of the stock market is 'price maintenance.' This matters on two fronts: the prices data centers charge AI companies for their services, and the unit prices AI companies charge consumers for their products and services.

If a Chinese company offers a service for $10 that others sell for $500, it could seriously affect the market. However, he analyzed that developing excellent LLMs and agentic AI requires strong computing power, and so far Chinese GPUs and CPUs such as Ascend have not matched Chinese-made chip-class performance at the level of Blackwell-era Western chips, and they lack sufficient HBM, so catching up with Western companies will be difficult.

Responding to a viewer who made money in stocks, started a business, and failed, Angle Protractor advised not to take business lightly. He stressed that success in business requires the drive to change the world, fast and accurate financial calculation skills, and the insight to judge people well. He emphasized that this is not an area where capital alone guarantees success.

To a novice investor who bought department store stocks after seeing rising foreign tourist numbers and then lost money, Angle Protractor explained the stock market term 'already priced in' and offered advice. Good news that is already known has been reflected in stock prices, so buying when others call something good is already too late. The stock market usually moves looking two years ahead, and he pointed out that what novices hear as good now may already be old news. He therefore stressed that you must check the chart before investing, and that if a stock has already risen a lot, the news is very likely already priced in.

He predicted that this price bubble will end when data center usage fees begin to fall.

Samsung officially announced that it will return about 10 trillion won to shareholders each year over the three years from 2024 to 2026, and additionally return half of its free cash flow.

Asked whether the stock market is inherently unstable given many risk factors such as rates and bubbles, or whether it is especially volatile these days, Angle Protractor answered that anxiety comes from share prices falling and unsettling one's mind. He stressed that stock investing is ultimately a psychological game of controlling oneself, and that even with good news, one can fail if they lose to their own psychology. He also advised first-time investors to spend about four years gaining experience and building stamina. By staying in the market and steadily enduring it, calluses form and muscles develop, making one a better investor. He added that it is wiser to start with an amount you can manage and gradually increase it, rather than investing too much at the beginning.