Putin Reaches Out to South Korea… Unimaginable Events Unfold

Considering North Korea's population of 26 million, analysis suggests that the actual combat-capable forces are limited, factoring in issues such as firearm management and lack of training.

North Korean troops dispatched to the Ukrainian front have been identified as forces from the Storm Corps (11th Corps), light infantry brigades, sniper brigades, and the Reconnaissance General Bureau. Dr. Cho Han-bum explained that sending 30,000 to 50,000 combat troops, especially from the Reconnaissance General Bureau, which is North Korea's elite unit, would place a significant burden on North Korea.

This estimate is based on North Korea engraving the names of fallen soldiers in an overseas combat valor memorial. Furthermore, including the wounded, total casualties are estimated to exceed 7,000, and it is analyzed that the casualty rate is very high given the nature of the Ukrainian battlefield.

Dr. Cho Han-bum predicted that Russia would likely deploy North Korean forces to rear areas like Voronezh, 200-300 km from the front, to allow Russian main forces to move to the front line. This is interpreted as a scenario where Russia prepares for a major autumn offensive by redeploying troops.

Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that for President Zelenskyy, the most urgent need is South Korea's Cheongung-2 missiles. With the supply of Patriot missiles from the U.S. and Europe reaching its limit, South Korea's Cheongung-2 is emerging as a critical alternative for Ukraine's air defense.

Therefore, he emphasized that a cautious approach and adherence to the principle of 'not crossing the line' are very important for South Korea.

The U.S. CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) mentioned South Korea's Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarines as allied forces to be deployed along the routes of Chinese aircraft carriers. This indicates that the U.S. highly values the importance of the ROK-U.S. alliance in implementing its strategy to counter China.

The United States operates 11 100,000-ton supercarrier aircraft carriers, but the typical operational period for a carrier is a maximum of six months. However, the USS Ford and USS Lincoln have been operating for over 300 days, indicating a severe level of operational fatigue. These excessively long operational periods lead to a lack of repair and rest forces, revealing the limitations of U.S. Navy carrier operations and consequently becoming a structural cause of operational gaps.

As of late 2024, China's major naval vessels number 370, surpassing the U.S.'s 297, indicating a quantitative advantage. Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that the collapse of the U.S. shipbuilding industry has significantly reduced its ability to construct new ships and repair aging ones. Comparing the U.S., which must cover the entire globe, with China, which focuses its strategy on its immediate vicinity, analysis suggests a serious qualitative and quantitative decline in U.S. naval power.

This is due to a strategic calculation where the U.S. views South Korea's military expansion positively, as South Korea would be able to counter Chinese and Russian nuclear submarines that conventional submarines cannot track.

South Korea's shipbuilding capabilities are world-class; the Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarines are equipped with SLBM launchers and possess excellent hunter-killer capabilities for detecting and tracking enemy submarines. However, Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that despite the Dosan Ahn Changho-class having advanced technology, its conventional propulsion limits its ability to match the high-speed maneuverability of nuclear-powered submarines.

Conventional submarines, similar to electric vehicles, rapidly drain their batteries during high-speed maneuvering, depleting power within an hour or two. Even with AIP (Air-Independent Propulsion) technology allowing them to stay submerged for 2-3 weeks, their batteries quickly deplete during high-speed maneuvers in combat situations. In contrast, nuclear-powered submarines can maneuver at high speeds for over 10 years on a single fuel load, a fundamental difference in energy sources that significantly impacts a submarine's operational capabilities, explained Dr. Cho Han-bum.

He predicted that a cooperation system between the ROK and U.S. navies, from MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) to new ship construction, will be not an option but an essential element in the future.

China and Japan have long-standing rivalries and historical conflicts over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyudao in Chinese). This region is uninhabited and lacks defense forces, making it highly sensitive. Dr. Cho Han-bum mentioned the brinkmanship between the two countries, warning that it could lead to clashes.

Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that this simulated targeting of Chinese vessels at sea represents a move beyond Japan's post-war exclusively defensive principle. Japan is also accelerating efforts to acquire enemy base attack capabilities, including promising to introduce Tomahawk missiles.

Japan recently established a battalion-sized amphibious unit, similar to a Japanese Marine Corps, and conducted landing exercises. Dr. Cho Han-bum analyzed that these landing exercises signify the retaking of occupied islands such as the Senkaku Islands.

Russian President Putin's visit to the Kuril Islands and missile launch drills are interpreted as direct provocations toward Japan. Dr. Cho Han-bum stated that there are analyses suggesting China is using Russia to deter Japan, leveraging the Taiwan issue. The increasing number of joint China-Russia military exercises targeting the East Sea further adds to the instability in Northeast Asian security due to the two countries' close ties.

China is currently expressing ambitions to expand into the East Sea, cooperating with Russia to secure an outlet to the East Sea via the Tumen River. With military and political actions in the East Sea region, such as Wang Huning's visit to Wonsan, Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that South Korea's security concerns are growing as Sino-Japanese tensions extend to the East Sea and Russia becomes involved, destabilizing the region.