The Real Semiconductor Shortage Starts Now

After Chuseok, the market is expecting a positive trend, confirming investors' adaptability to uncertainty. Stabilizing interest rates and falling oil prices have eased macro anxiety.

As the market absorbs uncertainty between corporate earnings and macro variables, investment sentiment is improving.

Once macro uncertainty is resolved, supply and demand will naturally recover.

Corporate earnings next year are expected to jump up a level and rise in a staircase pattern, and he advised focusing on mid- to long-term earnings momentum in the second half rather than being swayed by short-term macro news.

When the index rebounds, supply and demand and sentiment tend to follow laggingly, so improving corporate earnings, which correspond to fundamentals, is important.

Regulations such as strengthened security have the effect of raising entry barriers for latecomer companies, and can also be used as a strategic means to suppress China's AI development.

Former President Trump's remarks made clear that AI investment cannot be dampened.

A slowdown in AI investment could significantly cut US economic growth, and for the safety of the US economy, investment cannot be slowed.

The AI agenda at the US-China summit will likely be at the level of testing the waters or confirming the status quo, and significant outcomes are unlikely.

Muse is a free agent service that handles complex practical tasks such as monitoring flight ticket prices or calculating savings from switching insurance, opening new possibilities in the B2C market.

Meta is testing voice support services such as customer center refunds, and there is a risk that insurance companies or travel agencies could become subordinated to agent platforms, which affected related stock prices.

As the AI market breaks away from a monopoly structure and reorganizes into a triangular system, ecosystem stability has increased.

The more companies engage in unlimited competition, the greater the benefits domestic memory semiconductor companies can enjoy, and the market can grow explosively only when multiple companies continue investing competitively.

As AI services diversify into various forms such as personal assistants and enterprise solutions, multiple specialized companies are expected to coexist, according to CEO Lee Geon-gyu.

Ultimately, data center investment to support AI competition cannot but continue, which is taken as a very positive signal.

Meta is taking a management strategy focused on expanding user numbers rather than short-term profitability.

Ultimately, monetization targeting individuals is expected, and expanding influence in the US market is Meta's priority.

The proliferation of Chinese AI companies is likely to act as a reflected benefit for domestic semiconductor companies.

Semiconductor companies can be compared to those selling 'jeans' rather than those mining gold from mines.

As more players enter, there are more opportunities to sell semiconductors, so intensifying AI competition drives increased semiconductor demand.

The HBM3 yield of the Chinese semiconductor industry remains at 35%, not an immediate threat. Product prices are a key indicator proving the industry's solidity.

The HBM3 yield of Chinese semiconductor companies is only around 35%, so the impact on the domestic industry is limited.

Even with semiconductor price increases, there were no cases of purchase suspension, and CEO Lee Geon-gyu's view is that next year semiconductor supply will be limited and the shortage will deepen further.

The transition to HBM has the effect of reducing production capacity to 1/3 compared to existing DRAM, acting as a factor that further intensifies the supply shortage.

The shortage due to insufficient production capacity is expected to deepen next year more than this year, and this is highly likely to lead to price increases and earnings improvement.

The easing of US-Iran tensions will act as a variable for a rebound in semiconductor stocks.

Stabilizing oil prices and resolving interest rate anxiety act as drivers for improving investment sentiment, and if oil prices fall, pressure for sharp rate increases decreases, allowing market stabilization.

He expressed expectations that if only these geopolitical risks are resolved, semiconductor stocks could rebound quite strongly.

The discussion of acquiring a Westinghouse stake acted as noise in the market, but winning the construction contract for two Korean-style nuclear plants (APR1400) in the US will be a bridgehead for entering the US market, said CEO Lee Geon-gyu.

CEO Lee Geon-gyu explained that securing a track record in the US directly connects to global quality certification effects and creates significant ripple effects and profits.

The significance of this contract is especially notable as it is the first delivery of Korean-style nuclear plants to the US.

As Iran attacked refineries in neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar with drones, disrupting plant operations, concerns over diesel supply are being raised mainly in foreign media.

This has caused disruptions in diesel supply, and there is a possibility that discussions on export restrictions within the US could be considered.

As the physical time to restore refinery facilities is expected to take about 6 months to 1 year, diesel supply uncertainty is expected to continue for the time being.

CEO Lee Geon-gyu stated that he composed his portfolio mainly around semiconductor and power sectors with high profit growth rates and attractiveness.

Shipbuilding, defense, nuclear power, and cosmetics sectors are also expected to have good earnings momentum in the first and second halves, and assuming semiconductor profit growth rate is 100%, cosmetics is evaluated at around 40%.

CEO Lee Geon-gyu expects short-term events such as the US-China summit to not significantly affect the market.

Looking at statistics over the past 26 years, stock prices rose after Chuseok in 19 cases, overwhelmingly, so he recommended not paying excessive attention to market issues during the holiday and taking a comfortable rest.