Democrats Prepare Legal Defenses as Trump Resurfaces Election Fraud Claims Amidst Shifting Campaign Strategies

Jim Messina highlighted early vote numbers as a crucial metric, reporting that nearly 4 million people had already cast early votes as of yesterday. In terms of party identification among these early voters, Democrats hold a significant 15-point lead.

Messina also emphasized the importance of voter enthusiasm, stating that Democrats lead by 12 points in this category, according to a new Reuters Ipsos poll. He noted that while general polling can be prone to inaccuracies, early vote data and enthusiasm levels are more reliable indicators for presidential campaigns.

An Ipsos poll conducted for the Washington Post and ABC News indicates that while most Americans are confident in the fairness of the midterm elections, seven out of ten do not believe former President Trump will accept the results. This finding signals potential post-election instability, with election day and the day after expected to be perilous.

Democratic leaders are actively preparing for the possibility that the election results could be contested, potentially all the way to the House of Representatives, which is responsible for certifying the election. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has also increased its presence by doubling the number of election monitors on the ground, reflecting a broader concern about ensuring a free and fair election process.

In response to growing concerns about election integrity, Jim Messina and Norm Eisen have co-founded an organization named 'Democracy Defenders.' This group is focused on proactive measures to ensure a free and fair election, including preparing and filing lawsuits.

The organization is also committed to deploying personnel on the ground to monitor election operations. Messina expressed that the necessity of such an organization in the United States, particularly on its 250th anniversary, is "somewhat vexing" but acknowledged it as a necessary response to the current political climate.

Amid heavy late-stage campaign spending, questions are being raised about its efficiency, especially with so many voters having already cast early ballots. Donald Trump has said he has spent, or will spend, over $400 million by Election Day, including more than $300 million already spent on advertising, direct and indirect voter contact, rallies, rally arenas, get-out-the-vote programs, and election integrity efforts. Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg TV and radio, has also contributed some $80 million late in the race to Democrats. The question, then, is what late-stage money actually buys, whether it comes from Trump or anyone else.

However, Jim Messina points out that a majority of Trump's reported spending is allocated to his own rallies, often held in districts that are already strongly Republican, such as a Republican plus 43 district in South Carolina. Messina suggests that these expenditures are not effectively helping in crucial battleground states, thus diminishing their impact.

Jim Messina noted that the effectiveness of campaign money decreases significantly as election day approaches. He highlighted that while Elon Musk has contributed $289 million to the election cycle and Donald Trump's campaign spending is largely directed towards his own rallies, much of this late spending might not yield substantial results.

Messina also observed that money spent in House races is generally more effective than in Senate races. For example, in the Texas Senate race, which is a major swing contest, spending on TV advertisements has already exceeded $500 million. Messina suggested that an additional 5 or 10 million dollars would likely only benefit TV station owners rather than sway voters.

With only two weeks left, the focus of campaigning has surprisingly shifted to states like Kansas and South Carolina, which were not initially considered primary battlegrounds. Jim Messina commented that no political observers anticipated these states would become central to discussions so late in the cycle.

Kansas is currently seen as the most significant test for identifying undecided voters, a notable development given that Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 1932. Both parties have redirected advertising money from traditionally contested states like Georgia and North Carolina to concentrate funds on Michigan, South Carolina, and Kansas, indicating a dynamic and unexpected change in campaign strategy.

Former President Trump's upcoming visit to South Carolina is creating complications for Republican Senator Darlene Graham's re-election campaign. Darlene Graham, who is the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, was appointed to fill his seat and is now running for re-election. Her campaign is trying to navigate the contrast between Trump's recent actions and her brother's long-standing political stances.

Jim Messina highlighted that Trump's recent waiver of sanctions on Russia directly contradicts the strong anti-Russia stance championed by the late Lindsey Graham during his 25-year Senate career. For Darlene Graham, who is not widely known and had a tough debate performance, aligning with Trump's actions while upholding her brother's legacy presents a significant challenge.

Messina suggested that if he were Darlene Graham's campaign manager, he would strongly advise against Trump's visit, as it forces her to address uncomfortable questions about the divergence between Trump's policies and her brother's consistent advocacy. Having the president campaign in her state with just 13 days left before the election is deemed unhelpful for her close race.

Barack Obama is scheduled to appear in Detroit with candidate Abdul El-Sayed, highlighting his continued role as a powerful campaign surrogate. Jim Messina stated that Obama is considered the most popular political figure in America, and his presence on the campaign trail significantly benefits candidates by helping unify their bases.

In contrast, Charlie Cook recently described Donald Trump as 'radioactive' on the current campaign trail. Messina mentioned receiving daily calls from campaigns actively requesting Barack Obama's presence, indicating a clear preference for his unifying influence over Trump's polarizing effect on voters.