NVIDIA's Growth Continues, What About Samsung and SK Hynix's Benefits?

NVIDIA's stock price is showing an upward trend, maintaining support without breaking below its previous box range. This is interpreted as a level-up, indicating a higher stock price level. Given the heavy nature of individual stocks, a gradual upward trend is expected rather than a sharp short-term increase.

In this quarter's earnings announcement, NVIDIA released its full-year outlook for next year, rather than just the usual guidance for the next quarter. It delivered a strong message to the market by unusually disclosing specific figures and their rationale. The company stated that 100% growth is possible given the memory supply shortage, but conservatively expects 70% growth.

This funding will primarily be used for long-term supply contracts with major memory manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. NVIDIA solidified its investment commitment by even providing specific data on annual investment amounts.

Declarative vision statements can actually cause stock prices to fall. The market builds trust through performance forecasts based on specific figures rather than vague visions like 'we will do well'. It is mentioned that domestic companies' unfamiliarity with this method of presenting specific numbers is an area that needs improvement. The market seeks to determine corporate value through clear data.

7,500 points served as both a past support and resistance level, and represents the midpoint between historical highs and lows. However, there is an opinion that aggressive investment, expecting a strong further rise beyond 7,500 points, should be approached cautiously. Institutional investors are observing the market without rushing, and a cautious atmosphere prevails, where a 10% index increase is not taken for granted.

In the past, when analyzing the market, about 150 to 200 stocks were classified as promising candidates, but recently that number has significantly decreased to around 60. This shows that even when the index is rising, the number of stocks trending upwards is limited. Most stocks are still at the bottom of their price range, which suggests that opportunities could be found in these stocks if the market stabilizes.

Fund managers find it difficult to concentrate on specific stocks due to the pressure to meet return targets. Recently, other stocks such as KEPCO E&C and Samsung SDI have shown favorable returns, leading to a dispersion of funds. Furthermore, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have faced significant selling pressure from individual investors since 2021. At that time, the number of individual accounts surged from 5 million to 8 million, and whenever stock prices rebound, there is persistent selling sentiment for profit-taking, which acts as a limiting factor on stock price increases.

In the case of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, there are differences in upside potential and resistance levels at different price points. The current market is not driven by the semiconductor industry but by an overall market rebound. In this environment, professional investors focus on stocks with greater upside potential rather than weaker ones. Specifically, Samsung Electronics is likely to be chosen when an overall market rebound is expected, while Hynix is preferred when there is confidence in the improvement of the semiconductor industry.

The market can be considered strong when leading stocks in major sectors like semiconductors or secondary batteries drive market gains. Conversely, if the market moves primarily with stocks other than the bellwethers, it can be interpreted as a signal that the market is relatively weak.

Currently, the market is repeatedly fluctuating around the 10-day moving average, seeking an upward direction. Attention is focused on whether the US interest rate decision can resolve uncertainty and provide a positive signal to the market.

However, it is argued that this logic is no longer valid in global capital markets, which have become addicted to liquidity since the 2008 global financial crisis. Currently, interest rate hikes act as indirect tightening with a lag of about six months, which can burden the market. Therefore, the view that interest rate hikes are a market boon is merely based on past logic.

I personally use Telegram and AI chatbots (ChatGPT, Claude) to organize stock investment data. In the past, data was stored in folders, but now all data is input into AI chatbots to build a knowledge base. With this accumulated data, I ask questions, and the AI learns and understands to provide the necessary information, thus streamlining data management.