Democratic Party Leadership Race Likely Headed to Runoff; Jeong Chung-rae's Brother-in-Law Confirmed as Shincheonji Member

The prevailing expectation is that no candidate will reach a majority in the first round, and in that case the preference-vote results are expected around 7 p.m. Analysts say that if the race moves to a preference vote, it could work in Kim Min-seok's favor.

The disclosure came late in the convention race and is expected to weigh heavily on the candidate. The link to Shincheonji is considered a sensitive matter even within the Democratic Party.

Because the man is his wife's brother, it argues it will be difficult for Jeong to claim he did not know. This raises questions about the candidate's integrity and legitimacy and could hurt his standing in the vote.

Jeong's side has not yet issued an official position on the Shincheonji allegation. New Tamsa, however, believes the issue could go beyond a personal matter and affect the candidate's electoral strategy. In particular, a family tie to a Shincheonji member is seen as a factor that could strongly influence party members' votes.

The analysis holds that Shincheonji may therefore have a strong motive to try, by whatever means, to get Jeong Chung-rae elected. This points to the possibility of outside interference in the outcome.

This analysis may also explain why Jeong's side has offered no clear explanation of the Shincheonji allegation. If Shincheonji's organized activity does affect the actual vote, the fairness of this convention could become a point of dispute.

Jeong Chung-rae has refused to explain the allegation about his brother-in-law's Shincheonji membership. New Tamsa noted that an explanation at this late stage would be meaningless and could only amplify the controversy. For now, the candidate appears to have chosen silence over explanation.

If Jeong now says he did not know his brother-in-law was a Shincheonji member, that is likely to be seen as hard to accept and insincere. This could deepen distrust of the candidate and have a decisive negative effect on the vote.

This reflects a realistic assessment by Kim that he may struggle to win a majority in the first round. His strategy of securing second-preference votes in order to come from behind in the runoff will be closely watched for how it plays out.

If he fails to become leader, the many nomination promises he has made could all come to nothing.

Jeong is expected to have made nomination promises to many people for the general election and for the by-elections anticipated next year in places such as Seoul and Gangneung. If he does not become leader, those promises could not be kept, which could seriously damage his political standing. Some analysts suggest this desperation may be one reason he has stayed silent on the Shincheonji allegation.

This suggests support for the pro-Jeong camp as a whole is stronger than direct support for Jeong.

This pattern shows that party members are casting complex votes: backing pro-Jeong figures for the Supreme Council while, for party leader, choosing Song Young-gil over Kim Min-seok in some cases. It indicates the leadership race result is taking a shape that is hard to predict.

The main cause cited for recent opinion polls diverging sharply from actual results is the small number of respondents. Many polls were conducted with only 40 to 50 respondents, and at most around 100, so the samples lack representativeness.

With such small samples it is hard to accurately reflect the sentiment of all party members, so confidence in the poll results inevitably drops. This makes prediction even harder in this convention, which is expected to be extremely close.

In the Honam region, the candidates appear to have been nearly inactive. Honam accounts for one-third of the total electorate, but the mood is that voting has largely wrapped up ahead of Monday's count.

By contrast, in Seoul and Gyeonggi online voting is ongoing and closes tonight at 9 p.m. Unlike Honam, the Seoul and Gyeonggi vote remains fluid, suggesting a fierce contest for votes will continue to the end.

They compared Daegu's 72% turnout with Jeju's 38% and suggested Jeju's low turnout could be a clue to Honam's.

The forecast is that without Shincheonji interference, Honam turnout could fall into the 30% range. Honam party members' participation is seen as an important indicator for gauging its impact on the overall result.

However, recent calculations suggest this formula may have exceptions.

This indicates that the complex interaction of members' varied political leanings and regional characteristics makes outcomes hard to predict with a simple turnout formula. Given how much Honam turnout could affect the overall result, an unusual outcome cannot be ruled out.

If Honam is a turnout battle, Seoul and Gyeonggi are nearly impossible to predict because of the confusion in poll results. Online voting is underway in both and closes tonight at 9 p.m. New Tamsa analyzed results from eight polling organizations (including Yeoron Josa Kkot, Hangil Research, KSY, Ace Research, RealMeter, and Won CNI), but said the results diverge widely, with the lead flipping between candidates by organization, so it is hard to tell who is ahead.

In particular, New Tamsa analyzed the surveys by Yeoron Josa Kkot (automated response and telephone interview), Hangil Research, KSY, Ace Research, RealMeter, and Won CNI's survey of party members alone. Because each organization uses different methods and targets, no single conclusion can be drawn. This means the views of party members in the capital region remain fluid, and no one can claim victory until the final result.

This is because the published Seoul samples are very small. Using the same basis, New Tamsa calculated that with a sample of 80, the gap between the two candidates could range up to 24 points in either direction.

Even a survey with 260 respondents showed a gap range of 16 points, leading to the conclusion that a reliable prediction is difficult given the small samples. This simple calculation did not account for weighting or survey design, but it shows that the polls published so far cannot accurately capture Seoul's sentiment.

It was pointed out that simply averaging the eight polls released by several organizations to predict the overall picture has a major pitfall. The eight polls targeted different groups and used different methods, so they cannot be treated as measuring the same thing.

For example, one poll targeted all voters, another targeted Democratic supporters and undecided voters, and yet another targeted party members only. Methods also differ, including telephone interviews and automated responses. When the targets and methods differ, the results will differ, so simply averaging them stands in the way of an accurate prediction.

For Gyeonggi, for now the only option is to predict based on the single result from Won CNI's poll. However, all four Gyeonggi-related surveys by Won CNI reached the conclusion 'hard to say.'

This means the views in Gyeonggi are highly fluid and complex, making the result difficult to predict from any single organization's poll. Even the organization itself cannot identify a clear lead, so the final outcome in Gyeonggi is likely to remain unknown until the end.

New Tamsa has officially stated that the leadership race results in Seoul and Gyeonggi are hard to predict. The reason is that the data available is either imprecise or varies too much by organization to support a reliable conclusion. New Tamsa explained that after examining each piece of data while building its site, it concluded that Seoul and Gyeonggi are 'really impossible to tell.'

Under its principle of not asking readers to trust inaccurate data, New Tamsa acknowledged that for now it is difficult to clearly predict the capital region's outlook. This is read as both a question about the reliability of existing poll results and an example of how complexly party members' votes are actually moving.

Automated voting in Honam continues today and tomorrow, and it is still too early to discuss the final result.

Given that national turnout fell from about 57% last year to about 48% this year, the Honam turnout figure to be announced on Monday is expected to have a very large effect on the overall result. Low turnout in Honam could work in favor of a particular candidate and could even flip the overall picture.