Foreigners' and Institutions' Supply and Demand: Key Variables for Market Recovery

Yesterday, foreign investors and institutions each net sold over 2 trillion won, putting significant pressure on the market. CEO Ha Chang-wan projected that even if only half of yesterday's selling volume returns, it could almost entirely offset the previous day's decline. The scale of this supply and demand reversal is expected to be a key variable in recovering the overall decline. A positive atmosphere is building with a 1.4% rise observed in the overnight futures market.

CEO Ha Chang-wan analyzed that share buybacks could go beyond a mere defensive role in a declining market. If share buybacks break through resistance levels when supported by foreign and institutional supply and demand, the market recovery could be faster than expected.

Analysis suggests that the development of the AI industry directly leads to increased demand for data centers, beyond just server demand. This could drive a concurrent rise in utility and power equipment-related stocks, with companies like Sanil Electric, HD Hyundai Electric, and LS ELECTRIC drawing attention. Ultimately, CEO Ha Chang-wan explained, it is necessary to continuously monitor the supply and demand flow from semiconductors to substrates and then to materials, parts, and equipment (SoBuJang).

FC-BGA related stocks, expected to benefit from Broadcom, are gaining attention in the sector rotation. Stocks like Simmtech have shown an upward trend, raising both their lows and highs after long-term gains and subsequent corrections. While some resistance exists in the current range, CEO Ha Chang-wan diagnosed that breaking through it could significantly expand their upside potential.

For investors feeling fatigued by semiconductor stocks, CEO Ha Chang-wan suggested investing in other industry groups. He particularly advised targeting 'branch' industries that move in tandem with the semiconductor industry. Stocks like Doosan, which have experienced excessive declines but show potential for performance-based rebounds, were also proposed as alternatives.

Concerns have been raised that if the strong won continues, a decrease in profits for export companies will be inevitable. If the exchange rate gradually falls from 1350 won to around 1050 won, the amount sold in dollars will translate into significantly less won than originally expected. This suggests the possibility of needing to revise and adjust analysis models.

Alteogen's stock price is currently consolidating its bottom but shows a downtrend with progressively lower highs. The speaker analyzed that the stock needs to at least break through its previous high and maintain that candle to aim for further upside. For new buyers, it is important to confirm the lower end of the short-term trading range.

An opinion emerged that verification is needed for Alteogen's 4 trillion won license-out. As technology export volumes can continuously change, investors need to check updated information regularly. A cautious approach is required, as there have been precedents of revised technology export figures in the past.

If supply and demand are strong at the market open, there could be strength primarily in semiconductors. However, if supply and demand shift to sectors other than semiconductors, a sector rotation could occur in robotics or infrastructure. The speaker advised maintaining a wait-and-see approach until a clear concentration in a specific industry is confirmed. If semiconductors show strength, it's important to check for the inflow of program buying, and the sector rotation trend in robotics, infrastructure, etc., is likely to continue for some time.

Analysis suggests that if market trading volume is insufficient, it is difficult for multiple industries to rise simultaneously. The lack of abundant trading volume intensifies the concentration phenomenon in specific industries, with supply and demand focusing on thematic stocks like steel-related companies, leading to active day trading. This implies a potential shift to a trading market, accompanied by program selling due to the semiconductor sell-off.

Amid increasing interest in pharmaceutical stocks due to government health insurance issues, the possibility of a shift in supply and demand to pharmaceutical stocks, led by Hyundai Pharm, has been raised. CEO Ha Chang-wan specifically mentioned that Hyundai Pharm could gain market attention as a hair loss-related stock.

The current selling of major semiconductor stocks by foreign investors and institutions is influencing market trends. CEO Ha Chang-wan analyzed that foreign selling in semiconductors is highly likely to be accompanied by program selling, which could lead to stagnation in large-cap stocks.

Currently, foreign investors are net selling on both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets, and a rollback in the futures index occurred after yesterday's market close, maintaining a negative market sentiment. While the volume is not yet large enough to require a completely conservative view, CEO Ha Chang-wan explained that if this trend continues to expand, movements separate from the US market could emerge. Without an inflow of foreign supply and demand, market stagnation is likely to persist.

Daeduck Electronics is currently exiting its downtrend, with expectations for a trend reversal. CEO Ha Chang-wan advised that a box trading strategy, buying after confirming support around the early 100,000 won level, is effective. The rising anticipation for Nvidia in the semiconductor socket sector is also a positive factor.

Korea Aerospace Industries is currently in a downtrend with its moving averages in reverse order. CEO Ha Chang-wan emphasized that if key support levels are broken, there is significant downside risk, and if the previous breakout line is breached, holdings should be reduced. He added that if the stock falls further from its current 40% decline from its high, the difficulty of recovery would be extremely high.

In the stock market, the larger the decline, the exponentially higher the return needed for recovery. CEO Ha Chang-wan explained that a 10% decline can be recovered with an 11% rise, but a 20% decline requires almost 28-30% profit. Therefore, if stop-loss limits are not adhered to, recovering the initial investment becomes very difficult, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss selling.