FOMC Interest Rate Hike a Certainty, Stock Market Falls

The market is clearly reacting negatively to interest rates above 5%.

With a lack of buying interest and an influx of selling pressure, major New York indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, all fell.

Although many people had somewhat anticipated it, related coin stocks gave back most of their sharp gains.

Polymarket forecasts a rate hike with 90% probability, and the CME FedWatch Tool with 95% probability.

It is almost impossible to mention the possibility of a rate freeze within the current market.

It is difficult to find a securities firm that forecasts only 25bp.

These forecasts act as a factor in raising the projected interest rate hike until July 2027.

If the Fed decides to raise interest rates, market attention is expected to focus on former President Trump's future tweet reactions.

A shortage of investment funds is diagnosed as an unavoidable situation at present.

The market direction will be determined by tomorrow's FOMC results, and investors need to respond accordingly. The expectation of a rebound in October after the September decline still exists in the market.

This claim was made despite skepticism from some parts of the market.

Minister Besant stated that while the goal of lowering long-term bond yields was not achieved, the main reason for rising treasury yields was increasing oil prices. He also mentioned that economic sanctions on Iran are being used to encourage the participation of the UAE.

Minister Besant stated that the Trump administration is leading the research in AI models.

Despite rumors about AI, he believes that AI companies can stop development whenever they want, and he does not consider the current situation to be threatening.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that the cost of war with Iran ranged from $33.4 billion to $38.0 billion. Along with this, concerns about depletion were raised due to significant consumption of military supplies such as missiles.

Replenishing depleted military supplies would require additional budget expenditures, which is expected to contribute to rising bond yields and increased burden on the treasury market.

The 'Frontier Act,' led by the Democratic Party, has been introduced. This bill mandates that frontier companies developing AI undergo evaluation by an independent third-party institution and publish the results. Interestingly, OpenAI has come out in support of this bill.

This is interpreted as being influenced by the U.S. political landscape where lobbying is legalized. If the Democratic Party gains dominance after the midterm elections, the possibility of stricter AI regulations is also raised.

Despite many people opposing his claims, Musk expressed his conviction that they should be believed.

However, his actual actions contradict this. Recently, Musk revealed the development of an AI model called 'Grok,' continuing his competitive moves in the AI field. This is also analyzed as a manifestation of his competitive mindset towards rivals.

Musk appears to be employing a strategy to seize opportunities for a comeback in physical AI and autonomous driving. The discrepancy between his words and actions reflects his strategic positioning in the AI market.

An increasing number of people are worried that the market might fall by about 10% before the midterm elections.

This is interpreted as a move to prepare for the possibility of a stock market correction.

He emphasized that every company will be an AI company, repeating this message at the AI Summit and in collaboration with Salesforce.

This is interpreted as AI camp semiconductor CEOs asserting that there are no fundamental changes, expressing the industry's intention to strengthen AI for profit-making purposes. Nvidia also unveiled the 'Co-Pilot' model in collaboration with Salesforce.

There are criticisms that Amodei's message is being overly interpreted.

There is still no evidence to support a contraction in the hardware supply chain. Analysis suggests that overreactions such as order cancellations are unnecessary.

Industry-wide AI investment continues and is expected to be a major factor driving semiconductor demand.

This is interpreted as a flexible strategic change to secure technological superiority.

Google appears to be accelerating AI technology development, including announcing a new AI agent voice model.

While the 13th launch focused on confirming the possibility of space entry, the key objective of this 14th launch is to determine if Starship can reliably achieve orbit.

This launch will serve as an important indicator for verifying Starship's orbital insertion capability and improving the completeness of its reusability technology. Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, expects to achieve full reusability by next year.

SpaceX aims to significantly reduce space transportation costs through this, ultimately targeting human migration to Mars.