As Israel conducts airstrikes on Turkish-related facilities in Syria, the conflict between the two nations is intensifying, raising concerns that it could amplify instability across the entire Middle East region.
On August 18, Israel launched an airstrike on the Abu al-Zuhur airbase in northwestern Syria. Israel claimed the strike was to deter the movement of Turkish troops stationed in Syria and prevent the deployment of air defense missiles. However, Turkey refuted this, stating that its forces were not stationed at the base at the time of the airstrike, and strongly protested Israel's actions.
Following the Israeli airstrike, direct criticism from the leadership of both countries has intensified the conflict. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz directly criticized Turkish President Erdoğan, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also declared that the presence of Turkish military bases in Syria was unacceptable. This served as an opportunity for the political confrontation between the two nations to become fully apparent.
The heightened tension between Israel and Turkey is closely linked to the power vacuum that emerged after the collapse of the Syrian Assad regime in December 2024. Syria's central government control has weakened due to the civil war, and Israel and Turkey are attempting to expand their respective influences in the Syrian border region. Israel aims to counter the expansion of Iran's proxy forces in Syria, while Turkey seeks to strengthen security in its southern border region. Recently, clashes between the two sides have continued over various issues, including the monitoring of the Gaza ceasefire.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently convened security officials and ordered a review of conflict scenarios with Turkey. This is interpreted as a directive to prepare countermeasures in the event of actual war. While the likelihood of a short-term escalation is currently assessed as low, it is analyzed that changes in Israel's internal political situation after the upcoming October general election could become a significant variable in Middle East geopolitics.
Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, if a member state is attacked by a third country, it can receive support from other member states. However, Israel appears to believe that this provision would not be immediately applicable to the current conflict and that major NATO member states, such as the United States, would not intervene militarily. This is interpreted as one of the reasons why Israel is willing to tolerate a certain level of military tension with Turkey.
As geopolitical instability in the Middle East prolongs, major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are reportedly discussing ways to expand crude oil stockpiles with South Korea. This is a proactive measure to address potential crude oil supply chain risks that could arise if instability in the Strait of Hormuz persists. Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are pursuing a strategy to establish a backup system by pre-storing crude oil in major Asian consuming countries, ensuring stable supply even in emergency situations. South Korea, with its large-scale crude oil storage facilities, could be an important partner in these oil-producing countries' requests to expand stockpiles.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passage for Middle Eastern oil transport, and escalating tensions with Iran increase the likelihood of a strait blockade and attacks on oil storage facilities. Consequently, Asian countries are expressing concerns about crude oil supply disruption and price surges in the event of war with Iran, strengthening discussions on emergency oil stockpiles led by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, there are practical limitations to diversifying crude oil import sources and difficulties in securing actual infrastructure, making it challenging to find short-term solutions.
This framework aims to have both oil-producing and consuming countries jointly invest in energy-related infrastructure. This is seen as an attempt to explore multilateral responses to potential crises in the Middle East, emphasizing the need for secure shipping routes and energy infrastructure investment from a long-term perspective.
Incidental damage is occurring, such as Russia's deliberate GPS jamming misleading Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace, or conversely, Ukrainian jamming causing Russian drones to crash into NATO territory. It is also suggested that Russia is attempting to create divisions among NATO allies, and it is expected that similar incidents will continue until AI drones are introduced.
The CIA had received intelligence suggesting that Russia, believing the U.S. was weakened by its intervention in the Iran war, was looking for opportunities to expand the front in Ukraine or attack NATO countries. Director Ratcliffe reportedly conveyed a message to Russia that escalating attacks on Ukraine or attacking NATO countries would be counterproductive and would further solidify the relationship between former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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