Director Al, "Stock Market Entering New Phase Like Seasonal Change… Foreign Buying is Key"

Director Al predicted that the current stock market is about to enter a new phase, much like summer ending and autumn beginning. He believes that while the season is moving towards a relatively good period like autumn, the stock market is difficult to predict. He added that he feels as if one chapter is ending and a new segment or phase is beginning.

Director Al assessed that the world continues to improve in terms of AI, industry, and human productivity. He believes that productivity has become exceptionally good, even setting aside distribution issues. However, he stated that it's difficult to predict how this global development will unfold in the stock market, which is a 'money-making' market.

He mentioned that over the past year, the Korean market showed an unprecedented positive trend, with the index rising almost fivefold from autumn 2025 before falling. The US stock market also recorded a positive return last year and is continuing to hit new highs, up about 12% this year. He pointed out that some people feel burdened by the overall situation where the stock market continues to rise despite adverse factors like war and rising interest rates.

Director Al stated that from a historical perspective, many people feel uneasy about the current market's excessive happiness, believing that humans could not have lived so happily. He believes that looking back at human history, such excessive optimism is impossible, and 'crooked' people like himself think, 'This can't be right.'

Director Al emphasized that the old saying, 'Public sentiment is like water,' holds true. When water flows in, it comes in torrents, but like floods or typhoons, it can overturn everything. He explained that control can be lost at any moment, and the stock market is a prime example where people can experience such a dynamic.

Director Al explained that all areas, such as the foreign exchange market, bond market, and venture capital (VC) investment market that institutional investors focus on, are similar. He said that they are also human, so it's the same, except they quickly come to their senses. He pointed out that even in areas institutional investors are involved in, such as real estate project financing (PF) or mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investments, there is a tendency to lose control at some point and focus on specific areas.

Director Al cited memory semiconductors as an area where many investors recently focused and were disappointed. He explained that for a while, investors concentrated on general memory semiconductors, not HBMs like those made by Nvidia. However, he pointed out that many people who invested in companies like SK Hynix or Samsung Electronics are now incurring losses as memory semiconductor prices have recently fallen.

Director Al predicted that it would be difficult for memory semiconductor companies to show the same strong upward trend as in the past. However, he assessed that since these companies are currently operating well, the possibility of further increases in corporate performance itself is high.

Director Al interpreted the current trend of decreasing trading volume as a positive sign. He pointed out that trading volumes a few months ago were abnormally high, and he believes it might be better for trading volumes to decrease, for investors to go on vacation, or to show less interest in the market.

Director Al assessed that the stock market is still attractive in terms of price. However, he explained that from an emotional and timing perspective, many investors are reluctant to invest or have been hurt too much, leading to depressed investment sentiment, emphasizing the importance of investor sentiment.

Director Al emphasized the need for 'safe driving' in the current market. He believes that time is needed for prices to stabilize, and foreign investor buying will be a crucial factor that can bring stability to the market. He added that the movements of institutional investors should also be closely watched.

Director Al mentioned that institutional investors can now resume fund execution. He stated that he does not view the current situation too negatively, as a different market could open up if they plan new portfolios and start buying.

Director Al agreed with the opinion that some consider September and October, or October and November, to be very risky periods. He added that since it is still August, there is time, but selling strategies might need to be considered when those periods approach.

Director Al emphasized that the conclusion of market judgment hinges on foreign investors' buying activity. He advised that if foreigners buy, one should enter the market, and if they don't, it's better to observe. He recommended that investors with significant assets can buy anytime, but it's generally better to invest primarily in large-cap stocks.

Director Al said that trapped investors are always a problem, and he is unsure whether to recommend cutting losses and re-buying at the bottom, or to tell them to quit since they've incurred losses. He explained that he cannot give firm advice because he is not confident that the current situation is the end of the stock market, the bottom, or that selling now is the best option.

Director Al stated that while he doesn't view the market entirely positively, he is not confident whether firmly recommending a stop-loss at a specific point is a good choice. He apologized for not being able to make a firm stop-loss call and added that he would do so when necessary. He mentioned that he does not recommend buying in the KOSDAQ market currently, emphasizing that he expresses his opinion without concern for others' reactions.

Director Al said that fewer people are in Yeouido now, and the vacation atmosphere seems to be nearing its end. He mentioned that there's a holiday this week and next Monday is a day off, so he's thinking of going to the beach around then, concluding the video with his personal vacation plans.