Was Samsung Electronics' Ex-Dividend Risk Overstated? KOSDAQ Small and Mid-Cap Stocks Expected to Rebound in September

Ex-dividend risk was cited as the main reason for the market's decline despite Samsung Electronics' announcement of a shareholder return policy. This is because investors may feel that if they receive cash dividends, their stock price will fall due to the ex-dividend effect, and if they cannot recover that loss in a short period, they will incur losses. In addition, the income tax burden on dividends also negatively affected investor sentiment.

Particularly among individual investors, there is a clear preference for share buybacks over cash dividends. Cash dividends incur tax burdens, while share buybacks have the effect of increasing per-share value without direct tax imposition.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee explained the psychological impact of ex-dividend effects, stating, "From an investor's perspective, even if I receive 4,500 or 5,000 won in dividends, I will be hit by a 5,000 won dividend cut on that day. If I can't recover that 5,000 won, it can feel like a loss, right?"

Cash dividends and share buybacks have different impacts on investors in terms of taxes and per-share value. In the case of share buybacks, when a company repurchases and cancels its own shares, the number of outstanding shares decreases, which can lead to an increase in earnings per share and thus an increase in per-share value. Investors do not pay separate taxes in this scenario.

Conversely, investors who receive cash dividends must pay dividend income tax. Particularly, if the dividend amount exceeds 20 million won due to a large number of shares, it becomes subject to comprehensive taxation on financial income, further increasing the tax burden. Expert Yoo Chang-hee emphasized the tax advantages of share buybacks, explaining, "When shares are canceled and the price goes up by 10,000, 20,000, or 30,000 won, I don't pay any taxes. But if I receive 5,000 won, those with many shares, if it exceeds 20 million won, will be subject to financial income tax and have to pay more taxes."

Despite recent declines, Samsung Electronics' stock price remains approximately 4% higher than its closing price on Wednesday. Expert Yoo Chang-hee commented, "It's true that it fell a bit excessively, to be honest," assessing the recent decline as somewhat overdone.

He added, "Anyway, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics closed the next day with Samsung Electronics rising by about 8%, I think. Looking at today, they all fell, and ultimately, Samsung Electronics has only risen 4% compared to Wednesday's closing price. So, it's fair to say that it fell a bit excessively," analyzing that the decline was deeper than warranted by market conditions.

The investment appeal of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix currently differs. Samsung Electronics shows limited upside potential, with the 60-day moving average around 290,000 to 300,000 won acting as strong resistance. This has been clearly observed in recent stock price movements.

On the other hand, analysis suggests that SK Hynix still has room for further gains up to its 60-day moving average. Expert Yoo Chang-hee predicted, "SK Hynix still has some room to rise up to its 60-day line, potentially to around 1.95 million to 2 million won. Samsung Electronics, however, might find its 60-day line, around 290,000 to 300,000 won, acting as a ceiling. The upside room might be slightly higher for SK Hynix." He foresaw SK Hynix's relative advantage, seeing potential for SK Hynix to rise to between 1.95 million and 2 million won.

The cosmetics stock market has recently shown positive trends, with a potential for the upward momentum to continue until mid-September. Major cosmetics-related companies such as Silicon2, Kolmar Korea, and Cosmax have shown strong performance, renewing their all-time highs.

In particular, Pharmasearch is attracting attention for the growth potential of its beauty business, driven by the expansion of its medical aesthetic device business, and Amorepacific is also attempting to renew its high. Expert Yoo Chang-hee expressed optimism about the continued rise of cosmetics stocks, stating, "Looking at that, I think it might be creating a situation where cosmetics could continue to rise until mid-September."

Unlike its past period of rapid growth, APR has recently undergone a correction phase for the past 4-5 months, showing a gradual upward trend. This suggests that it is now playing a defensive role, maintaining a certain level during market downturns, rather than leading aggressive rallies as a market leader.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee analyzed the change in APR's character, stating, "Looking at the past 4 or 5 months, it seems to have drifted down a bit and is now coming back up, so it's not playing the role of a leading stock. However, I think it's playing a role in protecting, a defensive role."

The current market is so trading-friendly that it can be described as a 'buy on dips, buy on rallies' environment. This is because the market's low point has been confirmed, and an upward trend centered on bullish candles has continued, creating a market where even buying stocks that surge in the morning can result in a 1-2% profit rather than getting stuck.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee explained, "What a strong market means is that when something suddenly pops up in the morning, even if you buy it thinking it looks good, you're more likely to make 1 or 2% profit than get stuck. That's a good market where you 'buy on rallies'." He added that in such a market, it is easy to generate profits depending on trading proficiency.

The trend of the KOSDAQ index can serve as an important indicator for assessing market health and determining the speed of investment response. By checking the difference in buying power between KOSPI and KOSDAQ through the frequency of bullish candles, aggressive trading should be considered when the KOSDAQ index consistently shows bullish candles.

Conversely, a conservative approach is recommended when the KOSDAQ index turns bearish or shows weakness. It is crucial to read the market's direction and adjust investment strategies accordingly.

Expert Yoo Chang-hee emphasized the importance of the KOSDAQ index, stating, "You need to judge by looking at whether the KOSDAQ index is alive or dying, trying to live or die. If it's still good, and trying to live, then you trade aggressively and actively." This means actively participating when the market shows signs of revival and approaching cautiously otherwise.

Investors should closely observe the daily movements of the KOSDAQ index, increasing their buying proportion when signs of market vitality appear, and engaging in risk management when signs of weakness emerge.

Rumors have surfaced that Apple lobbied former President Donald Trump to use Chinese-made semiconductors. This speculation is intertwined with observations that it could be used as a bargaining chip in Trump-Xi Jinping negotiations, and with rumors that Apple uses ChangXin Memory in iPhones for the Chinese domestic market.

However, Apple has not provided an official response to these allegations despite demands from the U.S. Congress, leaving the truth still uncertain. Expert Yoo Chang-hee mentioned the rumor, stating, "Apple is continuously lobbying Trump to use Chinese products."

John Ternus is scheduled to take over as Apple's next CEO early next week, in early September. Ternus is known to be an engineer by background, and market attention is focused on what changes his appointment might bring to Apple's supply chain policy.

In particular, rumors are circulating in the market that the new CEO, John Ternus, is highly likely to visit Korea immediately after taking office. Expert Yoo Chang-hee shared expectations about his potential visit to Korea, stating, "Apple's next CEO will probably take office next week, early September, and according to rumors, there's a high possibility he'll head straight to Korea."

It is being pointed out that many investors currently feel excessive fear towards the market. Expert Yoo Chang-hee commented, "Many people probably have this mindset right now: 'I should sell if it goes up a little,' or 'I should escape if it reaches my purchase price.' The desire to get out of this market one way or another is stronger," criticizing investors' break-even mentality and frequent desire to sell.

Indeed, there is a strong tendency to react sensitively to small market movements, such as perceiving even a 0.3% index drop as a 'crash,' expressing excessive anxiety. This sentiment raises concerns that it could lead to missing potential market upside opportunities.

Ultimately, an abstract fear of the market is making it difficult for investors to make rational judgments, and a strong desire to flee the market is at play, causing them to sell even with small profits or escape even with losses.

Regarding the possibility of a market collapse raised by some, expert Yoo Chang-hee presented a counterargument based on global stock market trends. He argued that if the market were to collapse, the US S&P 500 index should have shown a decline of at least 2% or more. However, the S&P 500 is currently holding firm and has not fallen at all.

This suggests that the US market remains strong, and it is unlikely for the Korean stock market to plummet alone first. Expert Yoo Chang-hee emphasized, "If the market were to collapse, the US market should have died first. Based on the S&P 500, the stock price should have fallen by more than 2%. But it hasn't fallen at all," dismissing concerns about a market collapse.

In conclusion, he believed that the view that the Korean stock market would experience a significantly larger decline when major global stock markets are strong lacks persuasion. Investors need to make objective judgments based on global market indicators rather than vague anxieties.