KOSDAQ leads market, centered on materials, parts, and equipment

KOSDAQ's upward trend is not limited to specific sectors but is spreading across the market, and this market leadership is expected to remain with KOSDAQ for some time.

With the biotech sector also joining the rebound, the overall increase in the KOSDAQ market is expanding.

Until mid-August, a period of exploration continued with competition for leading stocks, but since October, KOSDAQ and the materials, parts, and equipment sector have achieved a clear victory.

Consequently, investors focused on large-cap stocks are experiencing a relative sense of deprivation and psychological impact.

The speaker urged caution against the increasing number of questions about whether the market is at its 'tail end'.

The point at which public questions shift from question marks to exclamation points is generally considered a market danger signal.

For the current trend to continue, consistent liquidity inflow must be confirmed.

The timing for expanding the weight of materials, parts, and equipment was delayed due to uncertainty in the stock price recovery process after the July downturn. The speaker admitted that this judgment was belated.

Nevertheless, the current timing is by no means too late. Opportunities still remain in the market.

The change in the second-largest market cap stock is an important indicator showing where the current market leadership is heading.

Competition among AI labs, hyperscalers, and cloud companies is predicted to continue.

Micron recently reinforced this outlook in its earnings announcement, stating that the semiconductor supply shortage will continue until 2027.

The US market case confirms the market supply and demand structure and its changes.

The emergence of leverage ETFs acted as a major cause for changing the market landscape. This led to a shift in the existing market structure dominated by leading stocks.

Technically, the 100-day moving average, primarily used by foreign investors, is taken as the standard rather than the 120-day line, and a gradual, stair-step upward trend is viewed positively over a sharp surge in the index.

He saw that the extreme concentration of funds had passed, as money had already spread from KOSPI to KOSDAQ.

He advised investors to reduce their large-cap holdings and pursue a portfolio strategy focused on materials, parts, and equipment for alpha returns.

As KOSDAQ's top market capitalization stocks rise, there is some potential for a 'catching up' dynamic.

Post-processing test companies like Leeno Industrial and ISC, along with Wonik IPS, were mentioned as stocks with additional upside potential. Jusung Engineering's new high is highly significant for the market as a new player.

Expert Hwang Yoo-hyun emphasized that rather than simply waiting for cheap prices, a strategy of participating in the current market's upward trend is necessary.

He pointed out that while buying cheap stocks and waiting might feel more comfortable, in the current situation, the disparity in returns could widen significantly.

Cosmetic stocks, which led market supply and demand in the second half, saw a sharp decline last week, including adjustments for ODM companies like Kolmar Korea.

Despite the sharp drop, cosmetic stocks are showing support around the 50-day moving average, and Expert Hwang Yoo-hyun believes there is a possibility of a rebound or additional low-price buying opportunities before or after earnings announcements.

Amid the simultaneous rise of secondary battery and material equipment stocks such as Samsung SDI, L&F, and EcoPro, some views suggest that a Democratic Party victory could benefit eco-friendly and secondary battery sectors.

While there were cases where eco-friendly assets significantly rose during Trump's first term, Expert Hwang Yoo-hyun recommended focusing on the materials, parts, and equipment trend rather than entering sectors based on political variables.

He added that there is no need to excessively anticipate political variables regarding which party will take power and invest in specific sectors.

With foreign cumulative contracts in the futures market remaining at a neutral level, it is analyzed that foreigners are observing and not taking a directional stance on KOSPI for the time being.

As the probability of interest rate hikes has significantly decreased, the best environment for small and medium-sized stock investment has been created.

Although oil prices may fluctuate, they are likely to stabilize downwards rather than surge, and with external variables fixed, the 'win rate game' for individual stocks has become important, according to Expert Hwang Yoo-hyun.