Why Did Experts Who Predicted a Crash for 8 Years Change Their Stance?

He explained, "It seems like I'm categorized with my university seniors because they appear irrational," stating that this is a complete misunderstanding of him.

Lee Sang-woo described his workload in terms of his sleep. He asserted, "I live more diligently than any other person called an expert, not only in my industry but also in others." He added that he is so severely sleep-deprived that his doctor warned him of 'dementia,' and even then, he had only increased his sleep from one hour to two.

Lee Sang-woo clearly distinguished his mode of expression. He claimed, "I said it was right, but I never said it would skyrocket," explaining that places destined for a surge are specific and he only mentions them to clients. He added that in public forums, he primarily uses the term "rise," and self-evaluated this by saying, "I'm known for not using excessive expressions."

Lee Sang-woo strongly criticized the practice of others unauthorizedly using his lecture content and ideas. He pointed out, "Countless people follow the methods I presented in my elementary school lectures, come to my lectures, gain insights, and then act as if they were the first to come up with them." He stated that this plagiarism is also why he does not distribute lecture materials and insisted that sources must be clearly cited.

Lee Sang-woo mentioned that bearish analysts, who hold opposing views to his, are recently changing their opinions and seem to be receiving government support. He observed, "There are several people at the opposite end from the CEO, and they seem to be changing their opinions this time." He pointed out that 'Lighthouse' and several people in Yeouido appear to have recently 'betrayed' their former stances, adding, "I see those people getting positions and money from various places, but I have absolutely no dealings with the government."

Lee Sang-woo pointed out that the predictions of bearish analysts who foresaw a housing market crash do not align with reality. He observed, "Far from crashing, the surge is spreading to evening areas, and even national-standard apartments in outer Seoul are constantly hitting 2 billion won." He added that jeonse and wolse are also recording new highs daily, with the average jeonse price for Seoul apartments already exceeding 700 million won. He explained that the bearish arguments, which People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk assessed as 'collapsed,' are not matching the current situation, and an atmosphere has formed where the government believes it has won by only targeting Gangnam's two districts.

Lee Sang-woo assessed that the evidence presented by those arguing for a decline in Gangnam prices is exaggerated. He clarified, "According to actual transaction data for Gangnam's three districts, prices haven't fallen that much." He pointed out attempts to generalize individual cases—claims of 8-9 billion won properties falling to 7 billion, or 6 billion won properties to 4 billion—coming only from Apgujeong. He maintained that such transactions are special cases due to taxes and do not represent the overall market.

Lee Sang-woo analyzed the government's logic for predicting a real estate crash. He explained that the Presidential Office believes increasing delinquencies will lead to an explosion in foreclosures, ultimately resulting in a real estate price crash. He summarized the government's perspective: "They believe that delinquencies are increasing, leading to houses being repossessed, and a surge in foreclosures, which will eventually cause real estate prices to crash." He hinted at the need to review the government's predictive basis, given that this scenario has not materialized.

Lee Sang-woo raised the issue of the complexity of the 2027 tax law revision. He explained, "It was the tax law revision for 2027. The president reportedly told the National Assembly to revise the tax system reform proposal as they see fit." This revision is assessed as so complex that even the president feels it is 'devilish,' yet the president is entrusting its revision to the National Assembly. Meanwhile, Jang Dong-hyuk of the People Power Party is advocating for its abolition, not revision.

Lee Sang-woo pointed out that the problem of tax law revision is affecting practical work. He criticized the abnormal situation where tax accountants have to consult multiple people to avoid errors in calculating capital gains tax. "Isn't it abnormal that tax accountants nowadays have to ask two or three people to avoid errors in calculation when advising on capital gains tax?" he criticized. This implies the absence of a simple system for automatic calculation, leading to issues with the credibility of expert groups.

A star figure from the real estate grand debate has changed his stance. This individual, who had been advocating for a downturn for eight years, changed his position after the government announced its measures. What's unusual is that he was specially called upon without even raising his hand. Lee Sang-woo conveyed the atmosphere at the time: "Other crash advocates were very disappointed because of him. 'Damn, I worked hard too, so why is only he favored?'" He explained that the influential person's statement caused dissatisfaction among others in the same camp.

Lee Sang-woo pointed out that the radical arguments the government might have expected at the real estate grand debate did not actually materialize. He explained, "They probably wanted to hear something like, 'Take everything from those who have a lot and build public rental housing there,' but it didn't come out." There was an absence of strong arguments such as strengthening public rental housing supply or restricting property rights, which he interpreted as creating a gap between government expectations and reality.

Lee Sang-woo pointed out logical contradictions in the arguments of real estate bearish advocates. He noted that while one argument suggests, "real estate prices cannot be controlled because inflation is rising faster than interest rates," a contradictory argument also posits that there will be a strong willingness to borrow if interest rates rise. He hinted that this lack of logical consistency undermines policy credibility.

This is interpreted as an implicit admission of the need to change his stance or revise his predictions. It seems to be a decision made considering the impact on his credibility as an expert if he were to abandon or significantly revise a long-held position.

Lee Sang-woo presented fundamental principles that a real estate analyst should adhere to. He questioned, "Especially for real estate, which has a directionality, how can one change their words several times a day or a month?" He explained that the attitude an expert should have is to maintain a consistent direction and present a medium-to-long-term perspective, such as, "At least this trend will last for 5, even 10 years, despite such-and-such events." He expressed the view that true real estate researchers should speak with such a directionality.

Lee Sang-woo criticized the lack of professionalism in real estate analysis. He pointed out that some research institutions only talk about growth rates as -1, 0, or 1. He criticized, "Isn't it truly laughable for such places? A rise button, a fall button, or if you don't know, a 'hmm'... If I ask my child, 'Do you think it will rise in my eyes?' 'Yes, 1' or '-1.' How is this different?" He expressed regret that graduates from famous overseas universities are presenting analyses at a level even an elementary school student could do, while receiving salaries funded by taxes.

Lee Sang-woo confirmed that key figures in the bearish camp are successively changing their positions. He specifically mentioned, "One person seems to be CEO Choi, who worked with me in construction... a visiting professor." It is understood that in addition to the CEO of Gwangsubokdokbang, CEO Choi and visiting professor Han Moon-do have all changed their stances. He hinted that the simultaneous change in position by multiple individuals might be a result of sensing market signals rather than mere personal judgment changes.

Just as animal behavior can predict natural disasters, he explained, "They are suddenly doing things they didn't do before, and we need to pay considerable attention to this unusual behavior." He drew an analogy that, similar to how animal behavior changes are observed to predict earthquakes or tsunamis in countries prone to natural disasters, their change in behavior is a signal to be noted.