Despite Hormuz Uncertainty, U.S. Stocks Fall While Korean Semiconductors and Overnight Futures Hold Up

Sectors that move on NXT (Nextrade) are showing a stronger tendency to hold up the next day as well. Based on this, the analysis suggests cosmetics, power infrastructure, securities, and some pharma/bio sectors may open higher at tomorrow's opening.

Foreign investors net bought KOSPI stocks worth 250 billion won and bought futures alongside, a shift from their earlier pattern of selling spot and buying futures, and analysts see it as meaningful. Experts judge foreign positioning to be better than expected.

Yesterday, U.S. overnight futures rose briefly on negotiation news related to the Strait of Hormuz, then fell when that news was reported untrue. Korea's overnight futures, however, withstood the external shock and closed up 1.28% in overnight trading, above 1,000. This is seen as an independent strength diverging from the U.S. market.

Analysts say a move above 4.7% could be viewed negatively by the market. Given the effect of rising yields on investor sentiment, this looks like an important indicator to watch.

If a strategy capable of generating sufficient returns is in place, the risk-reward is quite attractive, the expert said, adding they are considering investing.

The view is that attention to these large caps is needed.

In Korea, some AI-related companies and small-cap stocks with partnership momentum with overseas firms have hit the daily limit or rallied, while Korea, a hardware powerhouse, has seen limited movement of this kind, according to the analysis.

CoreWeave beat consensus on revenue, profit, backlog, and capex, and the market reacted positively. As a cloud rental company, it recorded 112% year-on-year revenue growth, with volume of GPU cloud, i.e., rented AI infrastructure, continuing to rise. This is read as reflecting strong demand for GPU cloud.

CoreWeave's backlog grew sharply, with the company announcing $104.2 billion, more than four times the level of a year earlier. A $25 billion contract added in early Q3 is not yet included in this figure, raising expectations for more volume and steep revenue recognition ahead. CoreWeave said current revenue is only the tip of the iceberg, with far more volume building up.

CoreWeave is broadening its customer base. Its main customers were AI leaders such as Meta and OpenAI, but traditional industrial firms like Bentley Systems and Caterpillar have newly joined, which is significant. The shift shows AI infrastructure demand spreading beyond AI specialists into a wide range of industries, and suggests a broader and more diverse customer base ahead.

As U.S.-China trade tensions persist and U.S. semiconductor controls on China tighten, shipments of U.S. chip equipment into China are being restricted. Against this backdrop, some expect Korean equipment makers could benefit from SK Hynix's investment in its China fab. However, which Korean companies will actually win orders has not been confirmed, and further analysis is needed. Selective upside, though, is still expected.

The move lets market participants lock in prices or hedge risk through futures in case AI demand weakens or oversupply pushes GPU rental prices down. The step is expected to reduce risk for financial firms. Following the earlier move allowing GPUs to be used as collateral for bank loans, analysts say AI infrastructure is entering a stage of being recognized as a true funding source and financial product, as that risk can now be spread across the market. This signals the financialization of AI infrastructure is nearing completion.

Previously, local governments could require setbacks of up to 1,000 meters, but a nationwide cap of 200 meters has now been set. Reflecting the current government's emphasis on solar power, even the strictest local government can now require no more than 200 meters, which is expected to have a positive effect. Setback rules for wind plants, which ranged widely from 100 to 500 meters, are also being eased to a maximum of 1,500 meters.

The pessimistic view warns that cloud providers can now build independent businesses using their own GPUs even without Nvidia, so the result may be intensified competition for Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta rather than a loss for Nvidia.

On the outlook for KOSPI and KOSDAQ, experts said KOSDAQ, after its recent steep rise, is likely to pause as it hits overhead supply. KOSPI, which moved sideways while KOSDAQ rose, may rise once more before running into resistance. They advised investors not to declare one index better than the other, but to approach based on the timing of the stocks they are watching.

Building new fabs requires infrastructure, power, and cabling investment, and since fab interiors are built as cleanrooms, cleanroom firms such as Hanyang E&G are considered promising. Given SK Hynix's announcement that it will increase NAND flash output through Solidigm, materials investment also looks positive. Hana Materials is seen as part of Samsung Electronics' value chain, but the expert added that if overall materials demand rises, interest in the materials segment within semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment could grow significantly.

In pharma and bio, money has been rotating between biosimilars and clinical-pipeline companies. Biosimilar firms such as Celltrion were strong yesterday, but in today's NXT session Celltrion and Samsung Biologics (Samsung Bio) weakened while clinical-pipeline companies such as ABL Bio and April Bio added gains. This is read as a sector rotation occurring within pharma/bio.

With trading thin on vacations, stock prices can rise easily on small volume, the analysis says. This suggests supply-and-demand factors, rather than the market's underlying drivers, have influenced the rise.

The idle plant is likely to be converted to an energy storage system (ESS) production line. Since the company already improved earnings after restructuring its Stellantis joint venture plant and building an ESS plant, this could push Samsung SDI to focus on its ESS business, which is performing well. While the market worries about losing a foothold in local expansion and rising investment burden, the analysis calls this a misunderstanding and says the chances of raising earnings estimates have increased.

NHN shares rose 5% in pre-market trading and drew attention. NHN had been known as a gaming company, but it has been pushing its transition to and expansion in data center businesses. The change in business structure is seen as having a positive effect on investors and driving the share price higher.

Stocks that have already risen a lot, or are rising, should be left alone regardless of the company. Conversely, at the early stage of a new or moderate rally, the strategy should be to hold and add to positions. But when the market has overheated and risen sharply, positions should be cut significantly first. The point is that reading the flow of the market and responding flexibly is the key to successful investing.

The explanation is that when investors place market orders to see how a stock reacts when they submit volume up to a certain price, the stock's price can temporarily surge.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year have grown recently. Rates are now likely to stay on hold, and some argue that caution is needed in financial stocks. Ending or pausing a rate-hike cycle can directly affect the profitability of the financial sector, so policy direction and financial stock moves should be watched closely.

Department store stocks appear to have fallen sharply recently. In Lotte Shopping's case, it posted an earnings miss, but the analysis attributes this to overly high consensus estimates, even though actual results were good. Although the department store sector stands to benefit greatly from foreign tourists, its shares have moved differently, which is seen as an overly large decline. There is expectation that shares will recover over time.

The analysis attributes this to consensus next-year earnings estimates having been set too high. It means the market's expectations were out of line with reality rather than the companies' actual results being weak, the explanation goes.

Unitree is valued at over 10 trillion won, but its offering price is set around 8.5 trillion won, so its shares are expected to jump after listing. Analysis suggests its listing and surge will lead to a broader revaluation of robot stocks rather than intensified competition for Korean robot shares. This is expected to spark positive investor sentiment toward Korean robotics companies as well.